百度3.5亿美元收购PPS 败笔之局

文/第二阿累
3月25日,有人放风,传爱奇艺将通过百度收购PPS,交易金额达3.5亿美元。
而时隔一月,今日正式被媒体定性“百度收购PPS尘埃落定”——有消息人士对《第一财经日报》表示,尽管此前PPS对外一再否认,但事实上爱奇艺通过百度收购PPS一事已经基本落定,收购金额在3.5亿~4亿美元之间。
从开始放风,双方辟谣,再到如今消息人士的证实,收购事件已经八九不离十,等得只是最后百度的公开承认。只不过,在这个时间段内,百度的营销手段一如既往的旧,没有任何创新。
暂时抛开营销手段,我们来讨论下百度收购PPS的策略是否值当。
收购资金不合理,百度被“宰”
在业界,很多人都知道今年以来PPS急售视频一事儿,奈何接触一圈后,只有百度接招。不过,百度的接招有点“大度”,竟抛出了3.5亿美元,换算成人民币却是超过了20亿。
据数据报告显示,2011年PPS总收入为4.5亿元,其中3亿为游戏,而视频仅仅只有1亿多。撇开PPS老总是否看中游戏未来的市场,就这1亿多的广告费,加上目前视频仍未规模化,且自身又未占据视频行业第一阵营。恐怕也让创始人有心无力支撑下去,只能售出。而百度抛出20亿的橄榄枝,超出外界所想,笔者认为PPS这次大获全胜。
有人欢喜,必然有人做“愣头青”,这次,百度这个“愣头青”就当定了——PPS没有精准的盈利模式、没有优酷、搜狐视频这样庞大的内容以及版权,更没有强大的用户基础。仅仅一点亮点只是移动装机量,约有1000万的量,号称占全行业三分之一。
但如果是看中这个,百度就楞大发了。业内资深人士简六曾评论“百度愿意给PPS估值3.5亿美元,而且交易大部分要给现金,假定1000万装机量靠谱,那么百度推动一款APP达到这个装机量要多少钱?爱奇艺要达到这个装机量,给3亿人民币已经能让刷机商们笑不动了吧。且不说合并要造成的盗版内容清理、人员动荡、销售动荡从而影响PPS在PC客户端和移动端的价值等等。”
简六的言论一语中的,如果百度真看中装机量,可以和装机大王杭州斯凯合作,笔者相信绝对用不了3.5亿美金,就能轻松超过PPS的1000万量。所以,百度愣头青很楞,还不如实实在在的把钱花在爱奇艺与百度影音上,至少可以在三年之内砸出个创新来。
三个和尚没水喝
百度借媒体之口说“爱奇艺将负责进行整合,合并后的公司仍叫‘爱奇艺’,采取双品牌运作模式。”
实际操刀整合的是爱奇艺,却又称双品牌运营?据资本市场人士向科技讯爆料称,爱奇艺CEO龚宇将出任百度视频集团的CEO,原PPS的CEO张洪禹将出任CTO.这其实是在说明爱奇艺将吃掉PPS?
另外,在昨晚20点25分,笔者已经发布一条微博:“百度收购一个和百度影音重合度极高的pps,不靠谱中的不靠谱啊。”
据了解,目前百度旗下已经有百度影音、爱奇艺,加上PPS就有三家,富爸爸对这三兄弟寄予厚望,却不曾想这个故事从一开始就奠定了三个和尚没水喝的基调。
1.与百度影音重合度极高
百度影音,是百度2011年2月最新推出的一款全新体验的播放器产品,他支持XP/ Vista/ Win7(32位)操作系统,同时支持目前网络上大多主流媒体格式的视频、音频文件,支持实现本地播放和在线点播。
PPS(全称PPStream)是全球第一家集P2P直播点播于一身的网络电视软件,能够在线收看电影电视剧、体育直播、游戏竞技、动漫、综艺、新闻、财经资讯等。
二者均是点播类软件,内容、模式、功能,可谓相差无几,现在又同在一家公司旗下,此后主次之争在所难免。
2.与爱奇艺基因相斥
爱奇艺+PPS表面看来比优酷土豆更互补:前者优势是在线视频,后者优势是客户端;爱奇艺的用户主要集中在一二线城市,而PPS更受三四线城市用户喜欢。
但风行网CEO就直言对爱奇艺整合PPS不看好,他指出,客户端和网页是两种不同模式,看起来互补,彼此却拥有不一样的DNA.在整合中,PPS高管团队和骨干员工的离职或许也是不可避免的阵痛。
视频行业的网页与客户端两大阵营正如鄙视链的两端,爱奇艺以正版长视频起家,PPS则以盗版长视频入行,傲娇的高富帅爱奇艺鄙视矮穷挫PPS多年,终于等到机会手握改革PPS大权。到最后,悲情的PPS也许能剩下“身残志坚”的美名,也许就一切都没了。
为此,笔者认为百度收购一个业务重合度达到90%的视频不仅没有多一分优势,相反,在未来给百度埋下一颗定时炸弹——PPS收购于百度旗下,存在人事动荡,业务动荡,内容动荡,销售动荡等,如果不泾渭分明,以后百度旗下三方争斗在所难免。这次,百度的如意算盘似乎算错了,三兄弟合力创奇迹的故事在往三个和尚没水喝的方向发展。
市场危机变大
除了以上的收购资金不合理、业务重合危机隐存以外,百度还将承受视频市场以及PPS所带来的盈利危机。
众所周知,目前视频行业老大优酷都在摸索中前进,而也未在外界大吼口号“我已盈利”。可见,视频行业还在烧钱状态中,如今百度收购PPS,风险与危机并存,逐渐,在视频方向又多了一项危机。或许,有人说百度很有钱,但是,三家视频企业的集合,是真正意义上的烧钱,试想,李彦宏再有钱,也不可能这么白烧吧。
视频行业的市场摊子本来就只有那么大,根据艾瑞发布的“2012Q4及全年在线视频核心数据”显示,2012年行业整体市场规模达到92.5亿元,同比2011年增长47.6%.但是,就在这个增长的份额下,连行业老大优酷土豆都未盈利,爱奇艺、PPS这些能有所突破?
何况,如今爱奇艺本身还没有上市,尚处在尴尬状态,现在摊上这么一个累赘,资本回报层面未来不被拖累都算好的了。
总结:三因素归结,笔者认为这次百度收购策略处于败笔之局,不仅看不到好的势头,相反其中隐患重重。

百度3.5亿美元收购PPS 败笔之局
文/第二阿累
3月25日,有人放风,传爱奇艺将通过百度收购PPS,交易金额达3.5亿美元。
而时隔一月,今日正式被媒体定性“百度收购PPS尘埃落定”——有消息人士对《第一财经日报》表示,尽管此前PPS对外一再否认,但事实上爱奇艺通过百度收购PPS一事已经基本落定,收购金额在3.5亿~4亿美元之间。
从开始放风,双方辟谣,再到如今消息人士的证实,收购事件已经八九不离十,等得只是最后百度的公开承认。只不过,在这个时间段内,百度的营销手段一如既往的旧,没有任何创新。
暂时抛开营销手段,我们来讨论下百度收购PPS的策略是否值当。
收购资金不合理,百度被“宰”
在业界,很多人都知道今年以来PPS急售视频一事儿,奈何接触一圈后,只有百度接招。不过,百度的接招有点“大度”,竟抛出了3.5亿美元,换算成人民币却是超过了20亿。
据数据报告显示,2011年PPS总收入为4.5亿元,其中3亿为游戏,而视频仅仅只有1亿多。撇开PPS老总是否看中游戏未来的市场,就这1亿多的广告费,加上目前视频仍未规模化,且自身又未占据视频行业第一阵营。恐怕也让创始人有心无力支撑下去,只能售出。而百度抛出20亿的橄榄枝,超出外界所想,笔者认为PPS这次大获全胜。
有人欢喜,必然有人做“愣头青”,这次,百度这个“愣头青”就当定了——PPS没有精准的盈利模式、没有优酷、搜狐视频这样庞大的内容以及版权,更没有强大的用户基础。仅仅一点亮点只是移动装机量,约有1000万的量,号称占全行业三分之一。
但如果是看中这个,百度就楞大发了。业内资深人士简六曾评论“百度愿意给PPS估值3.5亿美元,而且交易大部分要给现金,假定1000万装机量靠谱,那么百度推动一款APP达到这个装机量要多少钱?爱奇艺要达到这个装机量,给3亿人民币已经能让刷机商们笑不动了吧。且不说合并要造成的盗版内容清理、人员动荡、销售动荡从而影响PPS在PC客户端和移动端的价值等等。”
简六的言论一语中的,如果百度真看中装机量,可以和装机大王杭州斯凯合作,笔者相信绝对用不了3.5亿美金,就能轻松超过PPS的1000万量。所以,百度愣头青很楞,还不如实实在在的把钱花在爱奇艺与百度影音上,至少可以在三年之内砸出个创新来。
三个和尚没水喝
百度借媒体之口说“爱奇艺将负责进行整合,合并后的公司仍叫‘爱奇艺’,采取双品牌运作模式。”
实际操刀整合的是爱奇艺,却又称双品牌运营?据资本市场人士向科技讯爆料称,爱奇艺CEO龚宇将出任百度视频集团的CEO,原PPS的CEO张洪禹将出任CTO.这其实是在说明爱奇艺将吃掉PPS?
另外,在昨晚20点25分,笔者已经发布一条微博:“百度收购一个和百度影音重合度极高的pps,不靠谱中的不靠谱啊。”
据了解,目前百度旗下已经有百度影音、爱奇艺,加上PPS就有三家,富爸爸对这三兄弟寄予厚望,却不曾想这个故事从一开始就奠定了三个和尚没水喝的基调。
1.与百度影音重合度极高
百度影音,是百度2011年2月最新推出的一款全新体验的播放器产品,他支持XP/ Vista/ Win7(32位)操作系统,同时支持目前网络上大多主流媒体格式的视频、音频文件,支持实现本地播放和在线点播。
PPS(全称PPStream)是全球第一家集P2P直播点播于一身的网络电视软件,能够在线收看电影电视剧、体育直播、游戏竞技、动漫、综艺、新闻、财经资讯等。
二者均是点播类软件,内容、模式、功能,可谓相差无几,现在又同在一家公司旗下,此后主次之争在所难免。
2.与爱奇艺基因相斥
爱奇艺+PPS表面看来比优酷土豆更互补:前者优势是在线视频,后者优势是客户端;爱奇艺的用户主要集中在一二线城市,而PPS更受三四线城市用户喜欢。
但风行网CEO就直言对爱奇艺整合PPS不看好,他指出,客户端和网页是两种不同模式,看起来互补,彼此却拥有不一样的DNA.在整合中,PPS高管团队和骨干员工的离职或许也是不可避免的阵痛。
视频行业的网页与客户端两大阵营正如鄙视链的两端,爱奇艺以正版长视频起家,PPS则以盗版长视频入行,傲娇的高富帅爱奇艺鄙视矮穷挫PPS多年,终于等到机会手握改革PPS大权。到最后,悲情的PPS也许能剩下“身残志坚”的美名,也许就一切都没了。
为此,笔者认为百度收购一个业务重合度达到90%的视频不仅没有多一分优势,相反,在未来给百度埋下一颗定时炸弹——PPS收购于百度旗下,存在人事动荡,业务动荡,内容动荡,销售动荡等,如果不泾渭分明,以后百度旗下三方争斗在所难免。这次,百度的如意算盘似乎算错了,三兄弟合力创奇迹的故事在往三个和尚没水喝的方向发展。
市场危机变大
除了以上的收购资金不合理、业务重合危机隐存以外,百度还将承受视频市场以及PPS所带来的盈利危机。
众所周知,目前视频行业老大优酷都在摸索中前进,而也未在外界大吼口号“我已盈利”。可见,视频行业还在烧钱状态中,如今百度收购PPS,风险与危机并存,逐渐,在视频方向又多了一项危机。或许,有人说百度很有钱,但是,三家视频企业的集合,是真正意义上的烧钱,试想,李彦宏再有钱,也不可能这么白烧吧。
视频行业的市场摊子本来就只有那么大,根据艾瑞发布的“2012Q4及全年在线视频核心数据”显示,2012年行业整体市场规模达到92.5亿元,同比2011年增长47.6%.但是,就在这个增长的份额下,连行业老大优酷土豆都未盈利,爱奇艺、PPS这些能有所突破?
何况,如今爱奇艺本身还没有上市,尚处在尴尬状态,现在摊上这么一个累赘,资本回报层面未来不被拖累都算好的了。
总结:三因素归结,笔者认为这次百度收购策略处于败笔之局,不仅看不到好的势头,相反其中隐患重重。

——————–

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    Woah! I’m really {loving|enjoying|digging} the template/theme of this {site|website|blog}.
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    {very|extremely|super} {fast|quick} for me on {Safari|Internet explorer|Chrome|Opera|Firefox}.
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    Any way keep up wrinting.|
    {I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves}
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    {Howdy|Hi there|Hey there|Hi|Hello|Hey}!
    Someone in my {Myspace|Facebook} group shared this {site|website}
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    I’m definitely {enjoying|loving} the information.

    I’m {book-marking|bookmarking} and will be tweeting this to my followers!
    {Terrific|Wonderful|Great|Fantastic|Outstanding|Exceptional|Superb|Excellent} blog and {wonderful|terrific|brilliant|amazing|great|excellent|fantastic|outstanding|superb} {style and design|design and style|design}.|
    {I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what you guys {are|are usually|tend to be} up too.
    {This sort of|This type of|Such|This kind of} clever work and {exposure|coverage|reporting}!
    Keep up the {superb|terrific|very good|great|good|awesome|fantastic|excellent|amazing|wonderful} works guys I’ve {incorporated|added|included} you guys to {|my|our|my personal|my own} blogroll.|
    {Howdy|Hi there|Hey there|Hi|Hello|Hey} would you mind {stating|sharing} which blog platform you’re {working with|using}?
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    The reason I ask is because your {design and
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    looking for something {completely unique|unique}.
    P.S {My apologies|Apologies|Sorry} for {getting|being} off-topic
    but I had to ask!|
    {Howdy|Hi there|Hi|Hey there|Hello|Hey} would you mind
    letting me know which {webhost|hosting company|web host} you’re {utilizing|working with|using}?
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    Can you {suggest|recommend} a good {internet hosting|web hosting|hosting} provider at a {honest|reasonable|fair} price?
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    {I love|I really like|I like|Everyone loves} it {when people|when individuals|when folks|whenever people} {come
    together|get together} and share {opinions|thoughts|views|ideas}.
    Great {blog|website|site}, {keep it up|continue the good
    work|stick with it}!|
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    quick heads up. The {text|words} in your {content|post|article}
    seem to be running off the screen in {Ie|Internet explorer|Chrome|Firefox|Safari|Opera}.
    I’m not sure if this is a {format|formatting} issue or something to
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    {thought|figured} I’d post to let you know.
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    to {books|textbooks}, as I found this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} at this {website|web
    site|site|web page}.|
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    hearing. Either way, great {site|website|blog} and I look forward to
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    Just wanted to {tell you|mention|say} keep up the {fantastic|excellent|great|good} {job|work}!|
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    I’m {bored to tears|bored to death|bored} at work so
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    I {enjoy|really like|love} the {knowledge|info|information}
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    {site|blog}!|
    Its {like you|such as you} {read|learn} my
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    blog. {A great|An excellent|A fantastic} read.
    {I’ll|I will} {definitely|certainly} be back.|
    I visited {multiple|many|several|various} {websites|sites|web sites|web pages|blogs}
    {but|except|however} the audio {quality|feature}
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    you get a lot of spam {comments|responses|feedback|remarks}?
    If so how do you {prevent|reduce|stop|protect against}
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    I get so much lately it’s driving me {mad|insane|crazy} so any {assistance|help|support} is very much appreciated.|
    Greetings! {Very helpful|Very useful} advice {within this|in this particular} {article|post}!

    {It is the|It’s the} little changes {that make|which will make|that produce|that will make} {the biggest|the largest|the
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    {Thanks a lot|Thanks|Many thanks} for sharing!|
    {I really|I truly|I seriously|I absolutely} love {your blog|your site|your website}..

    {Very nice|Excellent|Pleasant|Great} colors & theme. Did you {create|develop|make|build} {this
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    {Thanks|Many thanks|Thank you|Cheers|Appreciate it|Kudos}!|
    {Hi there|Hello there|Howdy}! This {post|article|blog post} {couldn’t|could
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    {I will|I’ll|I am going to|I most certainly will} {forward|send}
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    {Wow|Whoa|Incredible|Amazing}! This blog looks {exactly|just} like
    my old one! It’s on a {completely|entirely|totally} different
    {topic|subject} but it has pretty much the same {layout|page layout} and design.
    {Excellent|Wonderful|Great|Outstanding|Superb} choice of colors!|
    {There is|There’s} {definately|certainly} {a lot to|a great deal to} {know about|learn about|find out about} this {subject|topic|issue}.
    {I like|I love|I really like} {all the|all of the} points {you made|you’ve made|you have made}.|
    {You made|You’ve made|You have made} some {decent|good|really good} points there.
    I {looked|checked} {on the internet|on the web|on
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    issue and found {most individuals|most people}
    will go along with your views on {this website|this site|this web site}.|
    {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What’s up}, I {log on to|check|read} your {new stuff|blogs|blog} {regularly|like every week|daily|on a regular basis}.
    Your {story-telling|writing|humoristic} style is {awesome|witty}, keep {doing what you’re doing|up the good work|it up}!|
    I {simply|just} {could not|couldn’t} {leave|depart|go away} your {site|web site|website}
    {prior to|before} suggesting that I {really|extremely|actually} {enjoyed|loved} {the standard|the usual} {information|info} {a person|an individual}
    {supply|provide} {for your|on your|in your|to your}
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    {I wanted|I needed|I want to|I need to} to thank
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    I {definitely|certainly|absolutely} {enjoyed|loved} every {little bit
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    {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What’s up}, just wanted to
    {mention|say|tell you}, I {enjoyed|liked|loved} this {article|post|blog post}.
    It was {inspiring|funny|practical|helpful}. Keep on posting!|
    I {{leave|drop|{write|create}} a {comment|leave a response}|drop a
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    {It is|Usually it is|Usually it’s|It’s} {a result of|triggered by|caused by}
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    I {{was|was actually} moved|{was|was actually} excited}
    enough to {drop|{leave|drop|{write|create}}|post} a {thought|{comment|{comment|leave a response}a
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    {Hi there|Hello}, I enjoy reading {all of|through} your {article|post|article post}.

    I {like|wanted} to write a little comment to support you.|
    I {always|constantly|every time} spent my half an hour to read this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site}’s {articles|posts|articles or reviews|content} {everyday|daily|every day|all the time} along with a {cup|mug} of coffee.|
    I {always|for all time|all the time|constantly|every time}
    emailed this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site} post page to all my {friends|associates|contacts}, {because|since|as|for the reason that} if like to
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    {friends|links|contacts} will too.|
    My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to move to .net from PHP.
    I have always disliked the idea because of the {expenses|costs}.

    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using
    {Movable-type|WordPress} on {a number of|a variety of|numerous|several|various} websites
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    I have heard {fantastic|very good|excellent|great|good} things about blogengine.net.
    Is there a way I can {transfer|import} all my wordpress {content|posts} into it?
    {Any kind of|Any} help would be {really|greatly} appreciated!|
    {Hello|Hi|Hello there|Hi there|Howdy|Good day}! I could have sworn I’ve
    {been to|visited} {this blog|this web site|this website|this site|your blog} before but after {browsing
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    {Anyways|Anyhow|Nonetheless|Regardless}, I’m {definitely|certainly} {happy|pleased|delighted} {I found|I discovered|I came across|I stumbled upon} it and I’ll be {bookmarking|book-marking} it and checking back {frequently|regularly|often}!|
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    {Disgrace|Shame} on {the {seek|search} engines|Google} for {now not|not|no longer} positioning
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    {Thank you|Thanks} =)|
    Heya {i’m|i am} for the first time here. I {came across|found} this board and I find It {truly|really}
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    {Hi|Hello|Hi there|Hello there|Howdy|Greetings}, {I think|I believe|I
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    {I just|I simply|I merely} wanted to {give you a|provide you with a} quick heads up!

    {Other than that|Apart from that|Besides that|Aside from
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    {A person|Someone|Somebody} {necessarily|essentially} {lend a hand|help|assist}
    to make {seriously|critically|significantly|severely} {articles|posts} {I would|I might|I’d} state.
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    {this actual|this particular} {post|submit|publish|put up} {incredible|amazing|extraordinary}.
    {Great|Wonderful|Fantastic|Magnificent|Excellent} {task|process|activity|job}!|
    Heya {i’m|i am} for {the primary|the first} time here. I {came across|found} this
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    {Hello|Hi|Hello there|Hi there|Howdy|Good day|Hey there}!
    {I just|I simply} {would like to|want to|wish to} {give you a|offer you a} {huge|big} thumbs up
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    {I will be|I’ll be|I am} {coming back to|returning to}
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    {I have|I’ve} bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.

    {Hello|Hi} there, {simply|just} {turned into|became|was|become|changed
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    {I’m|I am} {gonna|going to} {watch out|be careful} for
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    {I am|I’m} curious to find out what blog {system|platform} {you have been|you
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    {I am|I’m} {extremely|really} impressed with
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    Is this a paid theme or did you {customize|modify} it yourself?
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    {I am|I’m} {extremely|really} {inspired|impressed} {with your|together with your|along with your}
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    {Hi|Hello}, Neat post. {There is|There’s} {a problem|an issue}
    {with your|together with your|along with your} {site|web site|website} in {internet|web} explorer, {may|might|could|would} {check|test} this?
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    {Hi|Hello}, i think that i saw you visited my {blog|weblog|website|web site|site} {so|thus}
    i came to “return the favor”.{I am|I’m} {trying to|attempting
    to} find things to {improve|enhance} my {website|site|web
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    I {couldn’t|could not} {resist|refrain from} commenting.
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    {information|info} {a person|an individual}
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    every {little bit of|bit of} it. {I have|I’ve got|I have got} you {bookmarked|book marked|book-marked|saved as a favorite} {to check out|to look at} new {stuff you|things you} post…|
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    {It is|Usually it is|Usually it’s|It’s} {a result of|triggered by|caused by} the {passion|fire|sincerness}
    {communicated|displayed} in the {post|article} I {read|looked at|browsed}.

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    -P|:)|;)|;-)|:-)} I {do have|actually do have} {{some|a few} questions|a couple
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    {look|appear|come across} {like they are|as if they are|like} {coming
    from|written by|left by} brain dead {people|visitors|folks|individuals}?
    :-P And, if you are {posting|writing} {on|at} {other|additional} {sites|social sites|online
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    a year and am {nervous|anxious|worried|concerned} about
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    through|going through|looking at} {some of the|a few of the|many of the} {posts|articles} I realized it’s new to
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    {Terrific|Great|Wonderful} {article|work}!

    {This is|That is} {the type of|the kind of} {information|info} {that are meant to|that are supposed to|that should} be shared {around the|across
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    {Other than that|Apart from that|Besides that|Aside from
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    {Great|Wonderful|Fantastic|Magnificent|Excellent} {task|process|activity|job}!|
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