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文/iDoNews新锐作者 丁立杰

请搬个板凳坐下,我们一起来做一道数学题,算算孵化器的经济效益。

假设孵化器A每期孵化20 个公司,每期为半年,通过给每个公司提供2.5万美金的投资和一些日常的基本服务,来换取每个公司10%的股份。现在,你一共投资了50万美金,换来了20个公司10%的股份,每个公司现在的估值是25万美金。

现在我们来看费用。除了50万的投资以外,孵化器A还给旗下的公司提供日常服务,包括工作场地,水电费,有时候甚至是会计,秘书还有律师。假设这类费用每期每个公司需要2万美金,总额为40万。

假设孵化器A两个员工(你也可以叫他们经理或者合伙人)。每人每年从公司领取10万美金,加上一些员工福利和保险(一般是基本工资的100%),一年用在员工身上的钱大约是40万美金。

还有一些琐碎的费用,比如开讲座,产品展示日等活动。每期大约10万美金。

这样的话,一年两期孵化40个公司的费用是每期50万美金投资×2加上40万美金日常费用加上10万美金活动费×2加上40万美金的员工工资和福利。每年的总费用是240万美金。

再看看收入。假设50%的公司失败,20%在两年后以两倍的估值出售,10%在五年后以5倍的估值出售,剩下的20%在五年内进行了下一轮融资,其中一半,孵化器A在这些公司的股权被稀释到7%,这些公司中一般最终以10倍的估值出售,另一半,孵化器A在这些公司的股权被稀释到5%,最终以20倍的估值出售。

通过以上一系列退出,孵化器A最终的收益是:

20%×40个公司×25万起始估值×2倍×10%股权=40万

10%×40个公司×25万起始估值×5倍×10%股权=50万

10%×40个公司×25万起始估值×10倍×7%股权=70万

10%×40个公司×25万起始估值×20倍×5%股权=100万

总收益:260万美金

历时五年,孵化器A的净盈利不过为20万美金。

我无意讨论我以上提及的假设和一些费用是否合理——这样的东西可以讨论几天几夜。我想做的只是把最基本的数字列出来,给大家一个参照点。那么,问题出在哪里?为什么孵化器A五年内才赚了20万美金?需要改变哪些东西才能让孵化器A赚更多的钱?

追加投资。孵化器A能通过追加投资来提高回报。以上提到的第三和第四种情况下孵化器A的股权就不会被稀释,甚至还可能增持。但这受到孵化器自身政策和资金的限制。为和风投区分开来,有些孵化器明确表示不会参与同公司的多轮融资。

降低投资成本。考虑到孵化器A提供的一些服务,其对旗下公司的起始估值事实上超过25万。考虑到用在每个公司上的投资经费和日常费用(每期共50万投资和50万费用,不算孵化器A自己员工的工资),孵化器A相当于5万换来了每个公司10%的股权,实际估值为50万。我不愿意讨论这个数字是否合理。但孵化器在投资的时候需要考虑到自己提供的增值服务的成本和价值。事实上,如果创业公司自己应付这类杂事,其成本将远远超过孵化器的。

增加投资回报。这也许是最直观的了,但也许也是最难的,要取决于孵化器选项目的眼光的孵化的能力。如果有两个公司以50倍的起始估值退出,收入就能达到250万。即使剩下得 所有公司都失败,孵化器A也能赚回成本。而50倍的估值不过是1250万,对于一家运营五年的公司也不算夸张。

问题就是,去哪里找这样的项目呢?

再一次声明,我无意在这里讨论一些假设是否合理。硅谷有着这么多的孵化器,什么样的投资结构都有。我甚至无意讨论孵化器到底应该怎么改进自己的商业模式来将利益最大化(也许以后能跟进讨论)。我所做的,只是列举几个数字,给大家一个参照点。在满大街都是孵化器的今天,也许能坐下来静静的想一想孵化器背后的经济。

在硅谷的一家投资银行工作,半个banker,半个伪文艺青年。愿广交硅谷和世界各地有创业致趣的朋友。来件请至:jding@rwbaird.com

一天一分钟,业界在听你回声。如果你有更加丰满、个性化的互联网点评视角,欢迎奔跑加入iDoNews业内点评团,私信@沸话小欧 即可。

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