Google撤出中国的新闻虽然传闻已久,但现在出现在Google官方的blog上还是第一次。Google这一做法,其实留给自己在中国市场的退路不多,或许很多年以后Google的CEO会承认这一做法值得商榷,虽然坚持留在中国的代价或许相当巨大。李彦宏5年多前说过:5年后人们将很难看到Google的一句给百度壮胆的一句话,却不幸言中。其实我一直不觉得百度是Google真正的对手,或者严格意义上说只有在中文抑或日文搜索上才是对手而已。因为Google不仅仅是一家提供互联网搜索的公司。在某种意义上说他应该算是一家软件公司,与微软这家全球最大的软件公司唯一不同的是,一个业务架构在Windows系统之上,而Google的软件架构在浏览器之上而已。所以微软是Google的核心对手。正如唐骏说的那样,在与政府打交道的过程中,微软显然要比Google聪明很多。2010年在中国市场上,Google已经输微软一局。
   
    言归正传,微软多年以来一直像一个巨人,虽然偶尔有个对手,微软的三板斧基本上就解决问题。现在的Google或许是手握投石器的大卫,面对着微软这个格里亚巨人。这个投石器就是互联网搜索引擎。与其说是搜索引擎到不如说是互联网的入口,因为这个占互联网流量六分之一的互联网企业在Internet上的统治地位使得其得以实现另一个软件巨人的梦想。
   
    在成为互联网软件巨人之前Google首先需要面对的是微软的IE浏览器。非常幸运的是经过苹果公司对于KTHML改造的WebKit已经相当的成熟。所以Google的Chrome得以短时间内面世,而且体验上不输IE。2009年Google对于Chrome算是煞费苦心。Google在9月份推出了一个专门针对IE浏览器插件Google Chrome Frame,让用户在不更换浏览器的前提下即可享受Chrome带来的HTML5的支持以及更快的Javascript解析内核。11月份Chrome OS面世,虽然离用户的期待还有相当的距离,虽然与Windows系统不在一个层面。但高调宣布的Chrome OS在某种意义上促进了Chrome浏览器的推广。NetApplications在2009年12月份的统计,Chrome市场份额增至4.4%成为全球第三大浏览器。虽然距离Google的目标还有相当的差距,但是从微软的虎口中夺食,这样的份额相当不易。2010年Chrome的份额应该会进一步提高,不过在浏览器的争夺上,如果操作系统的份额没有改变,Chrome想要与IE平分天下实在有点强人所难。Android和Chrome OS还需努力。如果今年平板电脑借苹果的iSlate得以流行的话,Windows系统的市场份额将会带来不少的冲击。因为可以看到大量的非Windows的平板电脑将会面世,Chrome OS和Android或许会有机会。

    在移动互联网领域,Google在09年取得成就值得微软艳羡。Android系统从1.0一路升级到2.1,不但占Windows Mobile代工百分之八十多的HTC摇身一变成了android手机的制造商。老牌的手机厂家MOTO也离LiMo而去,压上了全部身家在android系统之上。虽然Windows 7在PC领域一扫Vista的颓势,但Windows Mobile 6.5虽然改名叫Windows Phone以后鲜有惊人之处。Windows Mobile 7也将延期。与微软的在移动终端的操作系统较量中,Android系统后来居上。微软想要扭转局势已经非常不易。09年Google还花7.5亿美金收购了移动广告技术提供商Admob;Google Map,Google Voice已经成了多个手机操作系统平台必备的客户端软件,显然在这些方面微软也落了后手。

    在其它领域Google与微软也做捉对厮杀。Gmail对Hotmail,Google Search对Bing,Google doc对Office Live Workspace,Google App Engine对Microsoft Azure。

    不过微软的反击也值得Google认真对待,Bing搜索已不是昨日那个Live Search。在某些方面Bing有自己的独到之处,何况还有IE浏览器的支持,其市场份额在今年应该也会有所增长。

    微软与Google像是拳击赛场实力相当的对手,除非一家趴下,否则比赛将会一直持续。


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