Twitter和QQ虽然是不同性质的互联网应用,但都作为信息传播的工具具有一定的可比性。
  
    Twitter未上市,无法正确评估市值,不过09年9月新获投资,如此估算那么Twitter市值10亿美金。短短3年有如此价格其增长速度也仅次FaceBook.腾讯市值超400亿美金。在用户数方面,Twitter注册账号达7500万,而活跃用户仅1500万,而腾讯在09年Q3财报中注册用户数为10.57亿,活跃用户数4.849亿,按照Q3的增长速度,到了09年年底用户数应该为11.32亿,活跃用户为5.20亿,而去年12月份同时在线用户数就超过9000万。简单的通过市值除以用户数来算,一个注册用户来算对于腾讯来说价值35.3美金,而对于Twitter来算一个用户价值13.3美金。同理可以算出一个活跃用户对于腾讯来说价值77美金,对于Twitter来说价值66.67美金。

    就腾讯的赚钱能力相比Twitter来说,腾讯的用户价值为Twitter的三倍肯定有过之而不及。不过考虑腾讯主要业务在国内,而Twitter主要用户在美国,考虑两国的消费能力,按照注册用户的价值来算,三倍的价格应该是个合理的数值。但从活跃用户来算,Twitter的价值明显被高估了。当然高估不不见得一定不合理,如果注册用户的爆发式增长是高估其价值最合理的理由,不过过去六个月里Twitter新用户增长数量呈稳定下降态势。

    Twitter由于开放API,多种第三方的客户端软件得以生存。在iPhone和Android的App中,Twitter的客户端软件占据着相当的份额。即便在Symbian系统上Gravity这个Twitter也是炙手可热的应用之一。虽然Twitter自身并未盈利,这些Twitter的手机客户端软件开发者倒是赚到了真金白银。真有点墙内开花墙外香的讽刺意味。虽然开放第三方接入有利于Twitter的爆发式增长,但Twitter在无形中被管道化了。当然值得庆幸的是相当数量的用户仍然选择Web方式浏览相关的信息,给Twitter带来一丝的盈利希望。但是没有盈利模式的Twitter随着用户的增长,随着被日益管道化,Twitter或许会成了一个免费的短信中心,投入和产出日益倒挂。

    相比Twitter腾讯虽然曾经使用oicq的名字,意即open icq的意思,但腾讯在开放性上有点对不起自己的Open的名字。珊瑚虫、彩虹QQ的这些事件表明腾讯非常不希望第三方搅和到自己的客户端领域。因为客户端是其盈利模式的根本。更何况由于早年圈地留下的用户规模,一旦开放了第三方的客户端接入,那么被管道化的悲剧也可能上演,毕竟在腾讯中商业利益在某种程度上是牺牲用户体验来获取的,或者换句更容易接受的说法是:提供客户端的差异化服务来获取的(原本可以提供更好的用户体验,但是你如果不付费我就不提供)。腾讯在IM的领域已经相当难撼动,除非那天以反垄断的名义要求开放IM的互通,那么整个IM产业或许会重新洗牌。

  被神化了的Twitter,虽然国内继续路径依赖。但Twitter的价值在风险投资的运作下,或许市值仍会增加,泡沫也伴随其左。从某种意义上来说风险投资商挟持了Twitter,然后Twitter挟持了国内的模仿者。虽然Twitter有其独特的价值,但国内的模仿者对于被管道化的趋势需要引发思考。


17条评论

  1. dowell的评论还是很有说服力的。

  2. 我没有看见现在twitter的盈利。

  3. Twitter虽然一直没有找到自己的盈利模式,但QQ的价值也高不到哪里去。腾讯把自己的产品做成一个平台,划分用户等级收钱,不然QQ就跟msn差不多了。

  4. twitter和qq都是在做一个平台,只是切入点不同,方法不同,方向都是一样的。

    觉得拿twitter同qq比较并不大合适,或许拿“非死不可”同qq比较还比较好吧。

    现在我最担心的就是qq做成中国的“非死不可”,那样对其他互联网公司来说是场灾难,“百毒”这样的搜索引擎也“非死不可”了。

    虽然我现在对qq不开放自己服务的API感到非常蛋疼,但是当它真正开放API那天,那可能真是“灾难”了,对中国市场来说。

  5. 我不知道你们这些IT人士天天在那happy的谈论twitter有什么意思,你们能登陆吗?在国内根本打不开twitter这个网站,翻墙都不行!中国人有几个知道twitter是什么?facebook好歹翻墙能去看看。

  6. 我不知道你们这些IT人士天天在那happy的谈论twitter有什么意思,你们能登陆吗?在国内根本打不开twitter这个网站,翻墙都不行!中国人有几个知道twitter是什么?facebook好歹翻墙能去看看。

  7. 我不知道你们这些IT人士天天在那happy的谈论twitter有什么意思,你们能登陆吗?在国内根本打不开twitter这个网站,翻墙都不行!中国人有几个知道twitter是什么?facebook好歹翻墙能去看看。

  8. 楼上的傻了,twitter翻墙打不开?每分钟那么海量的中文推都是外国货?玩杀人游戏、讨论广州今天为什么这么多黑丝袜的大把!

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