appstore

    去年不仅是中国3G的元年,或许也是应用商店的元年。苹果的AppStore如此成功,以致引来模仿一片。不仅手机终端厂商建起了各种应用商店,国内的三大运营商也试图路径依赖。中移动的MM应该是运营商最早试水的应用商场,中电信也启动了天翼空间,有消息表明中联通的Unistore也在开始布局。不过鉴于运营商对于手机终端的控制力和移动手机用户的支付意愿,三大运营商的应用商店并不被一致看好。

    一个程序的手机应用商店应该具备几个条件。首先是足够的用户规模,为特定手机开发的应用程序,开发的成本需要分摊,如果无法达到足够的规模,很难形成用户买的起,开发者有钱赚的良性循环。其次是完善的版权保护,或许这是目前最难做到的。iPhone的成功很大得益于iPhone是个封闭的系统,苹果一家公司负责硬件设计,系统开发,AppStore的运营,同时不允许不通过AppStore安装第三方应用软件。虽然iPhone被破解一直是苹果公司头疼的问题,但相比其他手机应用软件以及现有PC软件的盗版率,iPhone也算值得庆幸。第三是良好的支付渠道,与国内不同,国外的应用商店基本上通过信用卡支付,而国内目前相对成熟的为运营商代收费。

 
外来的和尚水土不服

    iPhone的AppStore,Google的Market,Nokia的Ovi或许算是相对成熟的应用软件商店。应用超10万个的appStore与苹果与应用开发者来说都算是不折不扣的摇钱树,造富神话不断在这里重演;虽然Google的Android Market盈利能力一直被人诟病,但鉴于Google的号召力,Android手机迅速增长的出货量,Android Market或许会成为第二个金矿。鉴于金矿已经发掘和开采,苹果与Google在中国不会轻易放弃赚钱的机会。不过国内用户鲜有通过信用卡支付移动应用软件的传统,需要使用美金支付成为这些应用商店在国内发展的巨大门槛。即便将来这些应用商店能够使用人民币支付,国内的收入水平也无法承担美元换算成人民币后高昂的软件费用,虽然在收费比率中占据最大比重的1.99美金价格的软件对于美国的消费着来说不算昂贵,但为这样的软件掏出10多元人民币的用户应该不算大众。
   
    虽然联通版的iPhone已经上市,但鉴于为了能够不付费使用盗版软件,越狱成了很多用户购买iPhone后必做的功课,行货的手机相比水货的手机没有太大区别,加上价格上以及缺少wifi模块的相比水货手机也没有优势,iPhone未如预期那样火爆,即便相比亚洲的韩国与日本,中国巨大的市场却让苹果公司有点可望而不可及。同样的问题也存在于Andorid的手机,相比iPhone的封闭,提取Andorid的应用程序的apk文件太过容易,各大GPhone的论坛正在成为Android应用软件的巨大的盗版基地。

 国内终端厂商:AppStore模式难以复制
    
     魅族或许算是国内终端厂家中最有苹果公司气质的公司。与苹果公司一样手机的产品线都来来源于Mp3产品线的拓展,虽然在硬件上M8几乎与iPhone一代采用相同的配置,在手机显示频分辨率上略胜iPhone,虽然Windows CE系统被改造得更像是iPhone,几乎无微软的痕迹。虽然2000不到的价格非常公道,但魅族相比苹果公司在号召力上的缺失,使得其难以在国内复制苹果式的成功。而一再延期的支持3G制式M9系列手机使得其与苹果公司的差距日益加大。虽然魅族自爆日出货量最高可以达到5000台,但其应用商店Mstore在收入上以及数量上都不足以支撑其应用商店的良性循环。

     联想集团一年多前将联想手机以1亿美元出售给Jade Ahead、小象创投、Ample Growth鸿长企业及Super Pioneer,到2009年年底再次以2亿美元回购,中间分分合合可谓一波三折。个中缘由外界或许很难猜测,但联想希望复制苹果的模式应该也算是重要的原因之一,所以一年多前的“包袱“成了现在的”香饽饽“。联想手机与中移动合作推出的基于OMS的O1,使其走到了国内手机终端厂商的前台,而同样基于Android系统改造的乐Phone也在CES 2010大会上高调亮相。类似中移动的OMS,通过修改Andorid贴上自己的标签的系统,走了一条与HTC和MOTO不一样的道路,很大的原因或许是联想希望能够自主运营自身的应用商店,希望走一条苹果式的路,而非MOTO和HTC那样相对单纯的手机终端厂家销售商的路。但出货量,支付渠道建立对于联想手机来说还有很长的路要走。

     MTK将自家的芯片组结合Nucleus系统,为手机终端厂家提供了从硬件到软件的一揽子方案,以深圳为基地的山寨手机不仅冲击着国内的中低端手机市场,同样已经在全球市场遍地开花,在东南亚、南亚、中东、拉丁美洲、东欧销量一路攀升。但MTK在提供一揽子解决办法的同时,也抹杀了终端厂家的创新能力;而中低端手机市场也没有应用商店良好的生存土壤。反而成了不良SP的吸费工具。

 国内运营商:对于手机终端控制力有限
     
      运营商做应用商店的历史或许比苹果还早。中移动运营的移动百宝箱以及基于CDMA得益于高通的REX系统的Brew应用商店都有些历史了。但移动百宝箱却未如其名字一样成为移动用户的百宝箱,也没有成为移动应用开发者的聚宝盆。多数基于Kjava的应用软件很难做到很好的版权控制,被移动梦网模式训练的手机用户对于收费的软件更加退避三舍。相比移动百宝箱,Brew应用商店由于高通扮演的重要角色,中低端CDMA手机采用高通REX系统的数量也相当可观,虽然没有AppStore那样红火,但也能赚些小钱,不过封闭的系统,高通不够开放的态度;鉴于二进制代码可能带来的危害,使得Brew软件不得不经过高通公司和运营商缜密的审核,自然使得应用开发对于个体开发者来说有了一定的门槛。

      除了OMS勉强算是运营商自己的系统,运营商在手机终端产业链中更多的扮演者终端销售的角色。如此众多的手机的应用软件适配对于运营商来说一定是个难题,而最关键的问题是iPhone的成功,使得终端厂家都各自有个各自的小算盘。三星、Moto都在打算在国内建立起自身的应用商店。

      或许运营商并不看中应用商店能够带来多大的收益,但3G缺少杀手级应用却影响着3G的普及。为了能够让手机不仅仅是一个通话和发送短信的工具,应用商店的这条路或许一定要走。但没有足够的收益很难吸引高质量的开发者或者开发公司参与其中,从而形成良性的循环。

      接下文 :  嵌入式广告移动应用商店的那根稻草


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