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接上篇:电子书的江湖(上)

终端之外

    要想复制Kindle,除了阅读器终端本身,还需要拥有可出售的电子出版物以及愿意为电子出版物付费的用户,并且都具备足够的规模。或许这正是国内的Kindle复制者最缺的。
   
    国内最有这两项Kindle成功基因的公司非盛大文学莫属。七家文学网站、近500亿字的原创文学版权、每天近6000万字的新增量、日平均访问量4亿次、日最高访问量5亿次,占有网络原创文学90%以上的市场份额、超过4300万的注册用户,这样的优势至少在国内无人能比。专注于网络文学的盛大文学,在拥有性价比较高的海量网络文学版权的同时,但网络文学本身无法对电子阅读终端用户进行有效覆盖。去年年底曾传盛大将推出电子阅读器“锦书”,据传09年12月份还成了一家名为“果壳电子”的公司,专门从事阅读器终端的开发。不过盛大最近却表示未来会将发展重心主要放在内容市场。对于已经成为运营商手机阅读的香饽饽、或许即将成为电子阅读器终端厂家的香饽饽的盛大文学来说,退而进行内容运营或许是明智之举。按照现在的盛大文学,相比其他纯粹的终端厂家更容易实现Kindle式的成功,不过介入终端产业也容易将众多可能合作的公司,比如终端制造厂家、运营商以及其他内容提供商推向了对立面,从而影响整个盛大文学的发展。

    虽然当当网或者亚马逊卓越在商业模式上更像亚马逊,都做图书的B2C业务。都拥有足够愿意为书籍付费的用户,鉴于国内对于出版行业的管制,两家公司做的也只是让书籍的购买渠道电子化,而非出版物内容的电子化。2010年1月8日《图书公平交易规则》的颁布,规定网上书店不得低于8.5折进行图书销售。显示了传统书籍零售商与互联网书籍零售商之间的矛盾。也显示这些互联网图书零售商介入电子出版的道路不会平坦。
   
    北大方正在数字出版积累的优势或许国内目前很难有第二家相匹敌,其旗下的公司方正阿帕比公司,据称中国80%以上的出版社用他们的平台出版发行电子书,每年出版的电子书超过6万种,全国150多家报社的300多份报纸也应用阿帕比的技术发行数字报。方正阿帕比与中搜合资的番薯网也于09年7月15日上线,不过经过8个多月运营的番薯网,丝毫看不出其发展成为自称”全球最大的数字图书门户“的迹象和潜力。今年3月23日更宣称“云阅读”平台上线。虽然“云阅读”发布会有同样做电子阅读器的津科、EDO、金蟾、方正飞阅等终端硬件厂商捧场,但鉴于方正自己发布的“文房”阅读器,或许这些与会的终端厂家各自打着各自的算盘。

    虽然诸多的内容运营相关公司号称拥有相当数量的书籍的数字版权。但内容的运营或许还不在于拥有多少数量的版权,而在于数字发行渠道能否与传统出版渠道拥有同样的地位,在于热门书籍在传统零售书店发售的同时,能否第一时间获得电子出版的发行权限。而这样的地位,需要数字发行渠道能够给版权方带来与传统出版渠道同样规模的收入,至少现在还有很多工作要做。

电信运营商的入局

    不生产电子阅读器终端,不生产内容的运营商握有网络与现成的支付渠道或许是其他公司所艳羡的。不想成为管道的运营商,试图在整个产业链中扮演更重要的角色。09年中国移动在浙江设立阅读基地,宣布在5年内将投资5亿元进行基地建设。试图建立包括中国移动、卓望、华为、盛大以及中文在线等公司参与其中的一条完整的手机阅读产业链。与中移动相同,中电信也将阅读基地设在浙江。而中联通也打算在广东选择一家合作伙伴切入手机阅读市场。或许运营商更在意以手机为终端的阅读产业链。在电子阅读器领域,运营商采用的更多策略由第三方定制相应的阅读器终端,至少专用阅读器市场远没有手机阅读那么成熟,毕竟用户使用阅读器的习惯还需要培养。虽然已经有汉王和方正为中移动定制的G3阅读器面世,相比在手机阅读的掌控能力,由于不掌控阅读器终端生产、也不掌控内容,或许更多的时候将会扮演网络管道和支付管道的角色。

黄雀在后

    iPad上市或许会改变电子阅读器市场格局。苹果的A4 CPU说明芯片的功耗还有很大的潜力可以挖掘,能够坚持使用10小时的iPad具备了挑战专用阅读器的资本。Pixel Qi的3Qi显示屏也在预示着TFT LCD也能像E-Ink那样省电,专用还是通用在硬件上不再是问题。或许高昂的E-Ink显示屏,让专用阅读器在价格上很难与平板电脑竞争中占得先机。或许亚马逊的Kindle与苹果的iPad在电子书上的竞争,不仅仅是硬件的竞争;而没有内容支撑的电子阅读器与平板电脑更像是“硬”碰“硬”的较量。预计价格同样在两千上下的平板电脑或许会带给现有的电子阅读器终端厂家严峻的价格竞争压力。

产业链的重构

    在国内很难有一家公司能够拥有苹果或者亚马逊那样的创新能力和足够的号召力,也意味着无法在一个产业形成规模前提前几年完成布局。众多的模仿者也使得原本不大的蛋糕被细分为非常小的份额,市场份额小到不够一个公司持续发展所需的必要规模。而苹果与亚马逊对于上下游渗透所带来在产业链上的主导地位,使得国内的公司都试图侵入原本不属于自己的领域,做终端的希望顺便能卖内容;卖内容的试图自己做终端,在电子书领域很难形成良性的产业链格局。市场份额的分散使得终端厂家在与掌握核心技术的厂家购买核心硬件的时候缺少议价能力。版权相关的产业在国内需要面对严峻的盗版威胁,用户的购买意愿还需要培养。只有数字出版发行公司达到足够的规模,才有足够的资金和动力解决目前盗版的顽疾。
   
    或许未来电子书产业是各家在整条的产业链中重新寻找到各自的定位,并在自身的领域达到足够的规模或许才是出路。


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