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     如果说Palm现在困境归咎于Web OS系统不够完善,不够人性化,不够智能一定有失偏颇。虽然Web OS的开发时间不长,不过一家在移动设备上有历史的公司;一家曾经在手持设备上打败过苹果的公司;拥有参与过创造苹果iPod神话的CEO乔恩·鲁宾斯坦,足以让这个新生的操作系统拥有良好的血统;而独道的在手机上构建网络操作系统的想法;独特的卡片系统构建的多任务系统;全键盘下滑盖设计也堪称带硬键盘手机的典范都是这样的血统最好的诠释。虽然给Palm Pre手机套上iPhone Killer的称号有些过度的褒奖,不过一个新生的手机操作系统能够有如此创新一定鲜见。或许选择了CDMA网络制式、选择了Sprint这样一个小运营商独家发售Palm Pre注定了Web OS成为了小众操作系统是今天这样局面最重要的原因。但2009年6月才上市的Palm Pre已经错过了智能手机迅速扩大用户规模的最好发展时期。

     时间沉淀是目前占据智能手机系统分别为第一和第二的Symbian和RIM最好的说明。成立于1998年的Symbian基金会到目前已有12年的工龄,RIM的黑莓手机也有相当的年份。Windows系的手机操作系统现在的市场份额也算是时间积累的产物。不过早期的市场远没有现在的智能手机市场那么激烈,一来芯片的运行速度无法让手持终端像PC那样高速运算;二来2G网络无法让智能手机有足够的施展空间;三者手机终端厂家的造壳工业也足以带来巨额利润。市场空白使得一家做电脑的公司苹果公司有了给手机终端制造商的前辈们一次洗脑的机会。

     iPhone的成功使得智能手机进入了规模竞争的时代。规模竞争的武器就是AppStore。手机所具备的功能已经不再局限于终端厂家开发的应用,而在于更多的第三方应用的开发。在iPhone出货总量还不是很大的时候,时间给了AppStore从0到现在15万数量的发展机会。对于开发者来说,开发iPhone的应用能赚到钱这是AppStore发展的最好理由,因为此前为手机开发应用软件不是一件很赚钱的买卖。从首款Android手机HTC Dream上市时间2008年10月来算,Android的历史也不算长远,不过有着Google的号召力,有着开源免费的诱惑,诸多的终端厂商加入,对Android来说用户规模一直不是问题,虽然为Android开发应用相比为iPhone开发应用不算太赚钱的生意,不过巨大用户规模下的长尾效益,今天不赚钱不意味着明天不赚钱。而单打独斗的Palm公司就没有如此的幸运,虽然开发者抱怨基于HTML/CSS/JavaScript无法开发复杂的应用,此后Palm NDK开发工具的开放也未能拯救水深火热的Palm公司。只占智能手机市场份额1%的Palm公司,只有一家运营的Web OS系统,无法吸引开发者为其开发物美价廉的应用程序,因为为40.8万的Palm Pre/Palm Pixi用户还是为四千多万的iPhone用户开发应用程序?这个选择题本身就不是合格的选择题,因为答案毋庸置疑。

     对于Palm来说,或者对于新的智能手机操作系统来说,如何快速跨过用户规模的裂谷或许成了难题。


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