iPhone的AppStore引来运营商、手机厂家以及操作系统开发厂家加入应用商店的红海。而iPad的热销又引起新一轮平板电脑的模仿秀。或许我们应该去考虑新的一轮机会在那里。或许现在的TV领域是一片新的蓝海。尽管这片蓝海在中国有政策管制的原因、有技术不够成熟因素,还有用户消费习惯的培养的巨大发展裂谷。

     1999年如日中天的微软提出”维纳斯“计划,这个计划对于盖茨来说意在让微软提前进入非PC智能化的时代。家电的信息化或许是IT行业在PC和服务器领域新的一片蓝海;家电的规模或许也是PC的规模所无法比拟的。不过正如维纳斯雕像断臂的遗憾,虽然”维纳斯“计划描绘了的智能家电未来几年或者几十年美好的前景,但在技术以及市场不够成熟,或许生不逢时是这一计划流产最好的理由。

     此后意在构建网络迪斯尼的盛大公司借着盛大盒子以及盛大易宝(EZ POD),试图先在TV行业复兴微软的”维纳斯“计划。不过盛大盒子一出生就面临出生许可证的问题。 2006年4月11日广电总局公函致电信,网通,以上海盛大明确为例指出,凡未经过广电许可而把互联网内容搬上电视机的行为,全部叫停。信中表示,“近期出现电子装置(盛大娱乐)可用来与电视机连接播放互联网内容,由于存在牌照,版权问题,请电信网通不予支持”。

    早在05年,盛大进军IPTV的野心已众人皆知。当一大堆对盛大盒子好奇的记者询问其身世的时候。

       “大家现在都在谈盛大的IPTV战略,但其实我们的‘盒子’不等于IPTV。因此说盛大推出IPTV战略,这是不准确的。”
        “我可以告诉你的是,我们的盒子采用的是微软Windows操作系统、英特尔的CPU,有声卡、显卡和硬盘。它其实就是一台特别定制的PC。”
       “既然是台PC,我想你也大概能猜出它的定价,可能是3000元、4000元,或者稍微再多一点。我们不希望别人把它当作普通的PC机。但可以肯定的是,盛大将来不会靠硬件挣钱。我们的定位很清楚,就是互动娱乐服务提供商,这项事业已经够盛大做一辈子了。”

      陈天桥作了如上回答。在某种意义上说盛大的盒子就是一台更换了电脑显示器为电视机,键盘鼠标更换为电视遥控器的另一台PC而已,或者说不是一个严格意义上的电子消费品。政策上或许是盛大易宝折戟沉沙的一个重要原因,不过那个需要运行在PC架构之上盒子,成本远超过了普通用户能够接受价格底线,而PC天生不是电子消费品,因为他不够简单,而且对于普通用户来说维护成本过高。

     国内的彩电厂家顺利的完成了CRT产品到液晶电视的转型。不过此起彼伏的平板电视的价格战让这些厂家的利润一步一步被削减。毕竟过于同质化的竞争使得众厂家在电视智能化上动足了脑筋。海信蓝媒、创维酷开TV、长虹推的首款能上网的LED电视LED920系列,都将联网功能作为了电视机的标配,电视广告的轰炸下,这些名词已经使得用户耳熟能详。对于传统电视生产厂家来说,在不擅长的媒体领域构建自身的内容平台或与第三方合作或是出路。长虹在2009年初正式推出斥资1.5亿元打造的网络内容平台:乐教网站;创维与朗科创建了酷开网。海尔互联网电视与搜狐高清影视频道对接;海信则是通过与新浪合作,在蓝媒电视专属的菜单界面可获得新浪提供的网络资讯。市场的迅速增长让监管部门加速了对行业的监管力度和速度。2009年8月广电总局下发通知,对于经营此类通过互联网方式提供视听节目的服务,必须取得《信息网络传播视听节目许可证》;2009年10月国家广播电影电视总局传媒司、网络司下发了《关于请中央电视台配合撤下有关 TCL、海信、海尔等企业互联网电视广告的函》要求撤下这些企业互联网电视的广告。彩电厂家又一次遭受了盛大盒子式的政策门槛。

     政策门槛或是盛大盒子、酷开TV们失败的最大原因。不过用户对于互联网电视的需求是实实在在的,毕竟千台一面的电视节目已经让用户逐渐远离电视,个人PC在更多的时候代替电视扮演者娱乐工具的角色。如何绕开政策的门槛或是这些企业所面临最需要思考的问题。除去政策的因素,由于视听节目需要足够的带宽,并且有很好的网络Qos保证。宽带发展初期712K,1M的为主的接入速度,虽然可以满足用户使用电脑观看视频的需求,但无法保证高质量视听节目的传输。对于用户来说,使用电视点播互联网节目或是初级需求,使用电视做PC能做的事情或是更多人的期待。超级马里奥、魂斗罗这些任天堂红白机留给我们这一代人的儿时记忆说明电视天生就是一个娱乐工具。不过在05年盛大盒子面世的时候,非PC的芯片还不够强大,以至于盛大需要将盒子构建在PC之上,这或是一种无奈。

     政策的管制具有两面性,在提供国内厂家进入互联网电视的门槛同时,对国内的这一产业也起到了很好的保护作用。世嘉Wii、微软的Xbox虽然对于众多的游戏迷来说已经如数家珍,但这些TV游戏机们水货的身份却迟迟无法转正,虽然同样的TV游戏机Sony PlayStation 2在04年1月进入中国市场,尽管索尼中国董事长正田纮说“这是索尼在全球最赚钱的业务,在中国没有理由不成功”,但恰恰在中国遭遇了“典型的中国式失败”,索尼忽视的了不仅仅是软件盗版的风险,重要的还忽略了中国式的“政策风险”。政策管制在这一领域很好充当了冰库的角色,将用户的需求冷冻至今。前期制约互联网视听发展的网络带宽问题正在变成不是问题的问题,运营商们为了提高用户宽带接入的ARP值,正在如火如荼的进行着宽带升级,2M、4M或许会是以后ADSL接入的标配。或许这也是酷开TV们在09年前后扎堆出现的一个原因。以高通SnapDrag芯片为代表的ARM芯片正在跨入GMHZ的时代,已经在逐渐接近X86芯片的运算速度。现在ARM的芯片的运算速度已经让手机不再仅仅是一个通讯工具,iPhone的广告语:几乎能做任何事情,或在另外一方面说明非PC的芯片技术已经相当的成熟。同样的芯片技术可以很好的移植到TV的“盒子”上,相比X86架构,ARM架构可以让用户获得更加便宜的”盒子“,更重要类似手机那样相对封闭的系统,更容易降低用户的维护成本。有了硬件还需要有操作系统的支撑,Android、Symbian的开源和免费授权,使得“盒子”们有了物优价廉的软件方案。2010年1月13日国务院召开常务会议,决定加快推进电信网、广播电视网和互联网三网融合。“三网融合”正式进入试点实施阶段。虽然中间有个小插曲:2010年2月广电总局叫停广西电信14市IPTV业务的事情说明各种利益碰撞还会上演,融合之路不会平坦,但政策的某些松动也可窥一二。      对于互联网电视来说,现在的局面与苹果借iPhone进入手机领域有着惊人的相似。正如手机操作系统的早期的智能化一样,平板电视厂家在电视智能化的道路上刚刚起步。有别于手机用户一至两年的更换手机速度,对于普通家庭来说一两年就更换电视机并不现实,因为TV尺寸的液晶屏价格不菲,为了更多的功能无法让用户下决心更换电视。众多平板电视厂家与电视机合体的智能化解决方案面临如何让用户保持足够的更新速度,以及众多用户更新不同步的问题,这使得类似IPTV机顶盒方案:与电视机相对独立的智能化方案更容易被用户接受。所以互联网电视在某种程度上来说还处于初级阶段。另一方面多数的解决方案只是解决用户通过互联网点播视听节目的需求,现在的互联网电视还不具备足够的运算能力和可扩展性,或者换句话说智能化地不够彻底,这一现状留给出了介入互联网电视的厂家足够的发展空间。 

 

       在某种意义上来说,智能手机操作系统之争告一段落,占据市场份额第一的Symbian或许会不断衰弱,而iPhone的OS x与Android将会成为智能手机操作系统的中坚力量。或许现在的智能手机市场很难让新的一款智能手机操作系统得到足够的发展空间,因为手机操作系统已经不仅仅是操作系统的竞争,而是手机应用软件的竞争,而没有足够用户规模的操作系统,很难吸引多数的开发者为之开发手机应用软件。Palm的Web OS虽然优秀,但进入市场或许太晚,残酷的市场没有给Palm再次老树发新芽的机会。而在智能电视领域目前没有类似苹果与Google这样主导的厂家。虽然苹果此前有iTV这样的产品,但并未获得iPhone如此的成功,因为iTV与iPhone最大的区别在于可扩展性。不过现在的苹果如果让iTV回炉再造,或许另一个iPhone奇迹会重演。      现在的互联网电视还仅仅局限于视听类节目,国外的TV游戏厂家短时间内无法跨越政策与盗版的门槛(因为软件还是以CD方式发行),而国内的公司至少还没有世嘉、Sony以及微软的开发实力,并未产生本土化的TV游戏巨头。市场存在着巨大的空白,更重要的是这些游戏软件并非像手机客户端软件那样轻量级,还未达到下载即安装即可用,并且开发成本相对低廉的程度。

     互联网电视未来产业有着像手机那样:硬件、软件以及服务高度集中在一个厂家的机会,有着类似iPhone的生存土壤。一旦有一个厂家占据了产业链的主导角色,类似AppStore的机会足以让这个厂家赚的鹏满钵满。与手机作为私人工具不同的是,互联网电视是一个以家庭为单位的消费群体。相比手机作为信息获取的工具,电视更像是一个娱乐的工具。手机的屏幕由于便携性的原因,4寸已经是很多用户接受手机屏幕最大的极限。而电视会有更大的屏幕,1080P高清电视有着更高的分辨率,或许1366×720、1920×1080分辨率或许会是主流。更大的屏幕让手机上的应用软件有了更大的发挥空间。互联网电视或许更大的诱惑还在于其足够庞大的用户群。PC的用户规模受到教育水平的限制,虽然智能手机取得了前所未有的突破,但iPhone这样的智能手机还并不是手机的主流。如果解决操作问题并且价格有足够的吸引力,未来互联网电视的规模一定会让PC与智能手机厂家艳羡,试想如果在国内有一款能打麻将的互联网电视,会是有怎样的吸引力。虽然互联网电视不会像智能手机那样集成GPS芯片,但相对固定的环境下,也适合一些本地化服务的提供。
  
     我们可以想象下未来的互联网电视是什么样的,都有哪些功能。或许首先应该是视频点播服务,这是用户最容易接受的服务。虽然youtube以及hulu的成功使得PC正在成为视听节目另一个工具。不过视频节目更适合在TV更大的屏幕下展现。或许互联网电视将会是国内众多youtube以及hulu们面临着巨大盈利压力新的救世主,当然前提还要解决影片播放质量的问题。3G使得视频通话成为了可能,不过需要前置摄像头、并且使用耳机或者免提的使用方式终归是个别扭的使用方式,如果使用电视作为视频通话的工具,双方面对电视硕大的屏幕进行通话或许是另一种其乐融融的沟通体验。当然游戏会是互联网电视另一个重要的应用,或许你下次经过街头巷尾听到麻将声会是互联网电视的音响发出的。教育也会是互联网电视重要的应用,有别于传统的电视大学,沟通将会是交互的,或者你的老师会是一个软件,他会帮你合理的安排培训的课程,并且随时可以完成教学成果的测试。或许孩子们可以在家中就可以轻松完成素质教育的课程,而无须双休日奔波于各个培训机构。电视购物或许随着互联网电视的引入会有另外一种模式,用户可以主动查询需要购买的产品而非现在接受现在的广告轰炸。

  不过这一切对于传统的电视产业将会是一个灾难。默多克现在叫嚷着互联网抢了报纸媒体的饭碗,或许将来电视大鳄们会喊着互联网抢了电视人的摇钱树,不过这一切或是大势所趋。


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