北美移动互联网与国内移动互联网存在巨大的差异
在北美智能手机的普及程度要远远高于国内.原因有二,价格是最重要的原因，iPhone和Android的这样好用的智能手机目前价格仍然较高。国内用户与北美用户在收入水平的差异限制了智能手机在国内的普及。其二是运营商对于终端的补贴能力，国内70多人民币的ARPU，使得运营商能够补贴终端价格的能力有限。或许这是目前诺基亚在国内仍然有较高市场占有率最主要的原因。当然电子设备持续下降，未来1000多元好用的智能手机是可期的。至少目前iPhone和Android在国内用户规模还是相当有限的，但抢食的有新兴的移动互联网公司也有传统互联网的大鳄。
在移动互联网用户构成上也存在较大的差异。在美国移动终端正在成为PC的一个补充，这些用户即是传统互联网用户也是移动互联网用户。而国内还存在大量的只使用或主要使用移动互联网的用户。由于无法使用传统互联网，移动互联网成为一种替代品。这类用户主要是民工与学生，这也导致国内的移动用户平均年龄要远远低于北美用户的平均年龄。
在传统互联网Copy To China的模式至少在搜索、IM、电子商务以及SNS等领域已经有了不少成功案例。由于移动互联网用户存在的差异，在这领域这样的模式未必可行。
资费不会大幅度下降
移动网络资费的下降是移动互联网用户所期待的，更是移动互联网企业所期待的。当然移动互联网企业更期望包月不限流量的套餐出现，因为ADSL的普及在某种意义上加速了中国互联网的发展，它不仅仅是带宽的增加，包月计费方式代替了按时长计费方式使得运营商成了合格的互联网管道。运营商内部其实一直在反思包月计费方式是否合理，因为用户消耗的网络资源逐渐增大的同时，运营商并未带来实际的利润。P2P网络的发展，更是运营商的噩梦，扩充再多的网络流量，都会很快会被BT这样的软件所吞噬。吸取这样教训的运营商不会让这样的局面在移动互联网出现。
移动互联网最宝贵的资源不是那些高价的核心网以及数据接入设备，而是有限的载波资源，有别于固网宽带接入，移动互联网存在天然的容量瓶颈。你可以增加一条光纤就可以增加以G为单位的网络容量，但你无法随便增加一条载波，况且载波能传输的数据容量也远远小于光纤。移动宽带接入无法代替固网宽带接入已经成为运营商的共识。iPhone用户抱怨AT&T信号不良，在某种意义上是AT&T那个不限流量套餐策略产生的苦果。当载波被占满的时候，也就是用户开始抱怨的时候。由于制式的原因，中移动在3G领域艰难的面对着联通与电信的挑战，或许降价成为中移动最后的杀手锏，但是情况并非如此。由于TD的不够成熟，使得中移动的用户大量使用2G网络作为数据业务实际承载制式，由于2G数据网络与话音都承载在低频的载波之上，容量有限；2G数据业务的单位流量的成本要远远高于3G网络，在价格战上中移动相比联通和电信并无优势，价格战一旦开始最先受损害的一定是中移动。况且多次的价格战，两败俱伤的局面使得运营商不会轻易动用价格这个双刃剑。
WIFI在某种意义上是存在瓶颈的3G网络的救世主，但国内的WIFI的部署并非像北美那样普及.在WIFI的部署上不仅仅存在政策上没有牌照的问题。固网宽带接入正在成为运营商重要的现金来源，在WIFI计费策略上如果处理不当很有可能损害运营商在固网宽带接入的利益。运营商在WIFI上都相对谨慎，至少在目前3G网络容量还有冗余的时候，不会轻易大规模部署WIFI网络。
4G还很遥远
中移动拿了TD-SCDMA牌照，在某种意义上减慢了3G在中国的普及，但移动通讯领域一家独大的局面不是监管部门乐意看到的，所以TD的旗帜或许只有中移动扛着才合适。TD-SCDMA或许在理论上与WCDMA不存在太大的差异，但一个网络制式的好坏不仅仅依赖于技术可行性，而要看是否形成完整的产业链。是否有成熟低价射频基带的芯片厂商；手机厂商是否原因生产这样制式的机型，相比2G，3G制式的差异大大降低了手机厂商的成本分摊的能力，各手机厂商更乐意生产全球通用的WCDMA手机，这样可以降低每台手机的成本。作为3G的后来者，TD的产业链并未成熟，诺基亚这些主流手机厂家在TD上的暧昧的态度就可见一斑。以至于中移动迫切希望能够跨过3G快速进入TD-LTE制式，虽然上海世博会TD-LTE得到了露脸的机会，即便是中移动这样的移动通信运营也无法独自建立完整的TD-LTE的产业链；芯片的成熟、终端的研发、终端的普及都需要靠时间来填平。一款手机的研发需要一年的时间，一个网络制式的成熟或许需要花上三年或更长的时间。中移动希望快速进入LTE的4G时代或是其一厢情愿。
（好长时间不写blog了，写起来有些手生了）
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