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互联网有句老话,只要你能实现用户价值,就一定能带来商业价值。

此话是不是有点过时?

这个观点发源自PC统治互联网的时代,如今PC端的用户停留时间下降,用户行为趋于稳定保守,移动端则蒸蒸日上。而PC与移动端的区别之一是,PC端的用户流动是自由的,通过超链接,从一个网站到另一个网站到另一个网站……但你可以从一个App到另一个App到另一个App吗?

移动端存在“短路径”的特征,用户行为被封闭在应用之内。用户习惯于打开多个独立App来获取服务,很难在不同的App间跳转,一跳几乎就到了极限,比如跳去另一款应用的AppStore下载页面。

问题之二是,受到界面限制,移动端在嵌入广告的位置与表现力方面,完全无法与PC端相提并论。

回到电脑上来,当一个网站实现了用户价值,带来比如说每月1000万独立访问用户,它可以向有着销售模式的网站导入流量,换来现金收益,一跳二跳三跳都有可能,经营方式灵活。这意味着有用户量就有商业回报,只是赚多赚少的区别。

而移动端呢,你的每日访问量导给谁?怎么导?导出效果如何?

到目前为止,App商业价值链中的流量转移是相当迟缓而低效的,要不跳去电商平台挣佣金,要不就跳去AppStore挣CPA或者CPM,两边都是窄路。即便做到千万用户级,也面临盈利困境。我最近接触一些VC行业的人,比较悲观的就说,看不懂移动时代的玩法,不知道投资如何回报。比较乐观的也会追问,什么时候能实现收支平衡?

我老老实实地回答:收支平衡?不知道哦。现在移动端的商业生态圈并未成熟,商业价值并未随着用户大量涌入而同步增长。整个移动产业还处于烧钱这个阶段,但我也并不打算闷头去赌“明天会更好”。或者说,开往明天的高铁车票并不单单用运气、耐心和用户量来换取。

这是由App本身的特性所决定的,短路径与弱广告,大大限制了App的流量变现能力。手游我不懂,单说游戏之外的App,获取收入有三种可能性:

1、App内容与某种线上或线下,商品或服务有着天然的关联,容易引导用户在应用内,或在一跳路径内进行付费购买。典型案例是各种淘宝导购应用,酒店预订应用。

2、App除了拥有海量用户,还有着容易被用户接受的,表现力出色的广告位。典型案例是各种第三方应用市场,以及美图秀秀。

3、通过App来获取有商业价值的数据,典型案例是Instagram,虽然它卖相片的协议后来在隆隆炮火中被焚毁了……

以上三者的共同点是,App商业化前景更多取决于产品模式,架构设定。如果认为产品深受用户欢迎,就一定能赚得盆满钵满,恐怕过于乐观。现在iOS端的CPA从2-3块,飙升到5-10块,运营App的成本飞快上升,大众市场竞争激烈,小众市场推广艰辛。这个时候抛开模式与架构,一味强调“用户价值必然带来商业价值”,怕是在等待戈多哟。

苦苦守候,也算是时代的眼泪吧。

作者微博:纯银V


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