现在我所在的团队在做移动通讯app,今天听说网易和电信联手推出易信对抗微信,于是我再次对这个项目产生了怀疑,不知道在这样一个微信独大,line、易信、陌陌等大厂、老厂互殴的领域里,一个小创业团队扎进去的意义在哪里?

在一次网易校园宣讲中有同学提问:“新浪微博已经很火了,占领了大部分市场,网易要做微博的理由为何?有什么意义?”宣讲官回道:“并不是说别人做了,我们就不能做,比如说博客,如今已经成了一种网站标配功能,我们认为微博也将如此。”

类似的问题我也问过其他朋友,回答是:“并不是只有占有率最大的能赚钱,底下的小弟弟们只要能够赚到占有最大的产品的零头,都够养活一帮子人了。”

作为一个初入行的新人,我很难判断这两种说法是不是靠谱的。

别人做了,确实不代表我们就不能做,但是别人做了,也不代表我们也得做。我们做别人做过的东西,应该是为了解决别人的产品的不足,但是,并不是你技术高、体验好就足够挑战了,尤其是对于一个依托人际关系的产品,用户使用某个产品很大程度上是因为他的朋友也使用,而不是这产品多酷多好,想在这种产品里挖别人的市场份额并不容易。

微信、Line等等已经盈利或即将盈利了。但是他们留下来的那些市场到底有多大?真的能够养活一帮子人么?这种为了小钱而经营的公司以后能有多大发展呢?失败的概率有多大呢?

这些是我作为一个加入创业团队的新人的困惑!

先讲几个段子。

1、2002年网易推出泡泡,与QQ竞争,产品体验近似,主打“挂泡泡送短信”。据业内消息称,一年内泡泡用户过千万,在当时还算是了不起的数字,但被“占便宜”吸引来的活跃用户极低,投入产出不划算。停止促销活动后,用户快速流失,虽然后来又发布了一系列“互联互通”功能,与MSN互通/与飞信互通/与GTALK互通,仍不能挽救颓势。甚至有人打笑说,泡泡的用户数就是网易在职员工数。

这个笑话当然不是真的,我听内部人讲,外面有不少公司在用泡泡。因为QQ日渐臃肿,泡泡被当作轻量级的内部通讯工具来使用。但日趋式微也是事实。

2、2009年,网易曾经启动过一个保密项目,挑战移动QQ的地位。没错,定位和现在的易信一模一样。为此成立了杭州研究院的移动部门。

此事之所以不大被提起的原因是,产品从来没有高调发布过。数据表现未达目标,再后来项目中止了,一停就是三年,直到易信来继承它的理想。

我对这个项目了解很少,只记得和移动QQ相比,它的差异化并不太大。然后有人提到过暑期档很重要,赶着在学生中推广,因为能省他们的短信费……

以网易的产品基因,这款产品的体验应该是不错的。

3、有没有觉得易信的出发点和泡泡很像?

当然,网易充分吸取了教训,这回砸钱促销的是中国电信

谈易信的文章很多,我不去凑这个热闹。我想说的是,这就是大公司的典型打法。拼资源,价格战,相对来说投入产出比是可衡量的,风险也是可控的,大公司最怕的却是“创新”,那个风险几乎是无底洞,而大公司体制也必然阻滞创新——因为消灭掉了创新所依赖的“自由/精简/个性化”。

4、回到你的第一个问题。

的确有“大公司标配”的说法。博客也好,微博也好,就算做不大,它依然为网易门户提供工具支持,内容运营很多时候需要以这种形态来呈现,总不能网易嘉宾实时回答的时候,让用户去登录新浪微博嘛。

另外,刚开始做的时候还是有梦想的,会觉得就算争不了老大,拿走20%的市场份额做老二,拿走10%做老三,只要市场足够大,投入产出还是划算的。这种自信背后,是巨大的门户资源来支持。对于战略级项目,门户可以持续导入日均百万级的访问人次,同时拿出合格的产品体验来,不论结果如何,出发时都会有“值得一战”的底气。

5、第二个问题,关于市场细分。

还是拿网易举例子。新浪博客走自媒体路线,搜狐跟随新浪,而网易博客因为扎根在杭州研究院的原因,基因不同,从一开始就走个人空间路线,注重个性化。网易博客的运营和产品是基本分离的,谁都管不了谁,恰恰因为这个,才有了差异化发展的可能性,最终也拿到相当大的市场份额(印象里流量与新浪博客差距不太大)。

所以关键是如何细分用户市场,体现产品差异性,服务于还没被完全满足的需求。但对于核心价值是“用户关系链”的IM来说,细分相当困难,微信又打得特别稳健。在熟人沟通方面,微信几乎找不到大的破绽;生人社交则让陌陌拿走了最肥的一块市场。我是想不到怎么细分的方法,搬凳子观战呗。

回顾PC端IM的战局,QQ独大之后,其他几家有这样的打法。

MSN:(曾经)高端大气上档次,在QQ形象最low的时候吸引白领用户

UC:首推视频聊天,视频群聊,吸引了一大批爱视频社交的中年寂寞男女……

泡泡:简洁轻盈,适合人群比较稳定的日常沟通,有段时间还主推“传大文件特别快”

YY:从游戏内的语聊入手,没想到做成了很大的生意

GTALK:拼爹

换个角度看,创业产品跟随大家伙的另一个好处是,只要细分成功,就算占有率不够大,赚钱也不够多,最后很可能被大家伙收购,出路很清晰。相比起来,从头做大一块市场那就得80代祖宗积德了。


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