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自从苹果发布了iPhone5,股价一路飙升到705美元之后,在三个月内,股价已经缩水近20%。今天,苹果收盘价为513美元,接近9月最低。我忍不住要写一篇文章分析一下这到底是怎么了。

尽管在美国圣诞购物节中iPad销量其他的平板电脑,但似乎也无法阻止它下滑的趋势。以下就是近期苹果股价持续下滑的几个原因:

Apple减少iPhone零件订单

根据福布斯报道,苹果公司为春季季度预定了2500万-3000万的零件订单,低于最近一个季度的3500-4000万。分析人士称,订单减少是因为苹果公司这一季度为以防万一多订了许多零件。从另一方面看,这也说明iPhone的销量并没有到达华尔街的预期,作为占苹果总收入超过一半的iPhone,其销量是苹果公司收入的风向标,直接影响到了投资者对它的信心。

苹果旗下产品的利润率逐渐下降

由于苹果线下产品的重心由高利润的iPhone渐渐转移至低利润的iPad,很多投资者都担心苹果公司2013年之后的利润率会逐渐降低。另有消息指出苹果公司将打造低价iPhone以应对发展中国家,这可能会进一步降低iPhone的利润率

新产品苹果电视推迟推出

互联网女王Mary Meeker总结过互联网下一个突破口之一会是在电视行业,因为每个美国人每天平均要花3个小时看电视。在过去几年中,包括科技巨头苹果公司在内的许多公司都在尝试。说好今年问世的苹果电视一直没有发布,这让寻找新的利润增长点的投资者们多少有点失望。

渐渐失去在智能手机和平板电脑市场的垄断性优势

Google、三星、诺基亚、微软、黑莓都在奋勇直追。智能手机和平板电脑市场被几分天下,同时,苹果却没有更新的突破性产品面世。另外一个不容忽视的因素是,苹果进入了“后乔布斯”时代,虽然坊间一直传言乔布斯部署好了“五年计划”和“十年计划”,但对于个人印记很强的苹果公司老说,能否在没有老乔的领导下继续繁荣是大家都在关心的问题。

那么投资者是否应该继续持有苹果股票?分析师预测:2012年苹果公司首次分红后,如果股价持续低迷,苹果公司会再次分红以留住投资者,另外,有传苹果正与中国移动谈合作,希望扩大中国用户群体。苹果包括苹果电视、iPad Mini2和iPad 5等传说中的新产品也要到暑期问世。到时也许会带来像iPhone 5一样的强劲增长势头。


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