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谁将掌握互联网的未来,是网民还是政府?网络技术的进步,将会使恐怖主义更容易还是更难发生?互联网私密性与安全性之间如何平衡,人们为了上网必须要付出何种隐私上的代价?

由谷歌执行董事长埃里克·施密特与“谷歌思想库”负责人贾里德·科恩共同撰写的新书《新数字化时代》(The New Digital Age)将探讨这些问题。该书将于4月23日由兰登书屋出版社在美国首发。

《华尔街日报》周末独家披露了厚达320页的新书部分内容,施密特与科恩对于互联网的预言“十分黑暗”——由于科技发展,极端主义分子以及各式各样的“流氓”都能随心所欲地利用互联网,未来,良善之民都必须学会如何有效地在网络上保护好自己。

世界分成两大阵营

《新数字化时代》一书的共同作者之一贾里德·科恩今年31岁,是美国两任前国务卿康多莉扎·赖斯与希拉里·克林顿在网络科技领域的顾问,目前是 “谷歌思想库”的负责人,该部门利用谷歌的各种资源,在反恐、反极端主义、防止核扩散及全球发展等事务上提出相应解决方案。施密特和科恩上月刚刚访问了朝鲜

施密特与科恩两人曾有过一次互联网预言。他俩联合撰写的论文“数字化破坏”(The Digital Disruption)2010年11月出版,文章开头一段写道:“手无寸铁的公民拿起手机,投身一场针对政府的小型抗议活动里,这将会令各国措手不 及。”一个月后,“阿拉伯之春”就在突尼斯拉开了帷幕。

《华尔街日报》认为,尽管《新数字化时代》一书中的有些观点实在过于陈词滥调,比如书中说不久之后“坦桑尼亚一个目不识丁的放牛人,也将会使用 智能手机查询当日的牛肉出栏价格,或者用手机搜索周遭是否有食肉动物出没”。但这本书还是有许多独到的观点,可视作“数字化破坏”一文观点的延续与更新, 该书用更大的视角去勾勒互联网的未来,网络不仅将改变个人,也将会对企业战略、恐怖主义以及政府管理产生影响。

施密特与科恩猜测,互联网最终将会支离破碎,世界上的国家将因为对于互联网持有的不同态度各自形成联盟,分裂成两大阵营。

针对中国着墨多

这本书也将矛头指向中国,在互联网自由和黑客问题上着墨甚多。该书宣称,由于美国不可能采取与中国相似的战术,导致未来美国的政府与企业在与中国的竞争中落下差距。

施密特任职的谷歌公司曾宣布退出中国大陆市场。中国外交部当时强调,中国的互联网是开放的,中国政府鼓励互联网的发展,鼓励为互联网的健康发展 营造良好的环境。中国政府也多次强调,中方反对任何形式的黑客攻击,已制定有关法律明确禁止。事实上,中国也是各类黑客攻击的主要受害国。

本书作者也承认,美国在互联网领域所作所为难以配得上“天使”称谓。比如美国使用“震网”(Stuxnet)电脑病毒对伊朗核设施进行攻击,向人权纪录糟糕的国家出口网络监控软件和技术,在美国国内就饱受质疑。

此外,该书作者认为,过去统治互联网的设备和软件几乎都来自西方国家,但随着中国企业在该领域实力的增强,互联网正在发生改变。书中预言,未来的超级大国将会在互联网领域施加更大的影响力,它会要求附属国的网络关键基础设施完全使用其国家的产品。

中国电信设备制造商目前正在世界范围内扩大业务,“华为所到之处,中国的影响力就在增长。”书里写道。为此作者预言,西方电信设备制造商思科、 爱立信等企业很有可能也会在未来加强与政府之间的联系。该书宣称,那些使用中国电信设备的国家迟早会在国家利益、商业利益上与中国保持一致,这将导致这些 国家在外交等领域与中国结盟。

事实上,西方一直戴着“有色眼镜”看待中国电信设备商。美国众议院情报委员会去年10月在报告中称,“根据可用的机密和非机密信息,我们不能相 信华为和中兴未受外国政府影响,也不能相信他们不会对美国和美国的系统构成安全威胁。”对此,中国外交部希望美国国会尊重事实,摒弃偏见,多做有利于中美 经贸合作的事,而不是相反。

互联网七大趋势

施密特的这本新书还谈及了他认为的互联网未来七大趋势:

新闻:由于在互联网平台上有越来越多新应用出现与相互交叉,新闻系统会呈现分散状态,主流媒体将会变得越来越难以报道独家新闻,却将会越来越多 地去证实互联网上传出来的消息。事实上,由于互联网将大量充斥劣质信息,精英阶层很有可能会更多地依靠成熟的新闻机构来获取新闻。

推特:推特上出现有价值的思想的概率,相当于一只猴子打出一部莎士比亚作品的概率。

搜索引擎:在搜索结果中,被验证过的网络链接相比未经认证过的链接,将会排名靠前,这将导致大多数搜索用户自然而然地去点击置顶链接。但这也许会导致网民真正想要点击的网页因链接排序问题,无法被点到。

网络战:即使大多数人都未意识到,但实际上我们已身处由各国主导的网络战争时代里。

高科技公司:在数字化时代,IT企业一定要厚脸皮,因为他们会发现,公众对于隐私、安全等问题越来越关注,为此这些公司不得不聘请更多的律师。 有关互联网的诉讼永远会比有关互联网的立法走在前面,为此IT巨头们将无休止地陷于涉及知识产权、专利、隐私等的法律纠纷之中。

此外,施密特认为的趋势还包括网络实名制和一些特殊国家的网络联盟。


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