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Android 成功的论调满天飞,甚至各个严谨的数据机构,也在每天生产各种各样对 Android 有利的报告。

于是乎,Android 之父 Andy Rubin 从 Google 岗位上卸任,就很容易理解为功成身退,或激流勇退。从 Larry Page 发布在官方博客的文章,也能看出 Google 对 Andy Rubin 治下的 Android OS 心满意足。

Page 在博客中以数据为证:Android 在全球拥有 60 多家厂商合作伙伴,Android 设备全球激活量 7.5 亿部,Google Play 应用总下载量超过 250 亿次。Page 由此评价 Android 业务“超越了我们对 Android 近乎疯狂的宏伟目标”。如此高度的盖棺论定,身为大将,足矣。

但是 Android 真的成功了吗?

从数据来看,Android 在智能手机市场获得 68.8% 份额,处于绝对主导优势;在平板电脑领域——苹果的传统优势领域,数据机构也刚刚发布报告预测 Android 平板将取胜。两大革命性领域,Android 光芒万丈,苹果逐渐黯然失色。

但一年前的论调犹言在耳:你来是因为产品,你留下是因为生态系统。

Android 夺取市场份额的招术一点都不高明,因为便宜货向来都是销量最大的。Horace Dediu 说到了痛点:如果 iPhone 在运营商获得更大的购机优惠,iPhone 还会节节溃败吗?当然,这个理论是不成立的,因为足够大的销量才能诱惑到运营商。但廉价 iPhone 呢?这在一个小平板还比对手高出 130 美元的产品帝国的哲学思维里,不存在生长的空间——况且廉价 iPhone 之后,45% 的利润率何处安放?所以 Android 卖出了很多很多产品,它只是做了苹果没有做的事情:伺候好中低端用户需求。恰恰这个用户群是巨大。

但是,Android 的基业可以长久吗?

这要解决“留下是因为生态系统”问题。Android OS 能够留下人吗?解决这个问题,我们要分析 Android 阵营内有多少是忠诚用户?这个数据我也不知道,你可以问问身边的 10 个朋友,有多少对 Android 的感情是“忠诚”,有多少是“实用主义”。在差不多一年前的讨论中,人们也表达了对 Android OS 见仁见智的热爱或厌恶。从各式报告中,我们很容易就看清 Android 的成功在于它不断拓展的新用户。Android 老用户何处安放?以前乔布斯在世的时候,会把 iOS 描绘成天堂,把这批人吸引过去;现在三星的 Galaxy S、Galaxy Note 旗舰机,吸引了这批人。

我们看到,在 Android 帝国里,没有“忠诚”这个词汇,只有“用户习惯”这个颠扑不破的真理。或者说,即使有,它也是人们酒足饭饱之后的闲暇谈资——没有接触第一台便宜 Android 设备后的教化,哪来得及对 Android 的审美玩味?iOS 的世界呢?一开始高高在上,高不可及,触及之时,玩味不尽,深陷其中而不能自拔,难怪乎 iPhone 用户的忠诚度 50% 以上。

尤其在 iOS 灵魂人物 Scott 离开之后,Google 更不必枕戈待旦,可肆意挥舞“廉价”这把屠刀,抢夺 iOS 的份额。一旦廉价 iPhone 推出,便是苹果沦陷于 Android 绿色汪洋之日,苹果离真正消逝不远矣。

还记得 IBM 创新副总裁伯尼·梅尔森(Bernie Meyerson)说的那句霸气侧漏的话吗? ——为一个平板担忧,还是参与制度新世界规则?Andy Rubin 为将才,在不必枕戈待旦之时,与其守着创新已尽的手机和平板电脑,不如派予更加远大的使命。

跑题了吗?没有。所谓成功,必有竞争,才有成败。论产品,Android 已经成功;论生态系统,没有了对手,何谈成败?


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