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文/虎嗅网 吴澍

YY上市了,这个市场带来了几个符号:1、Oh yeah 破冰之旅,上市窗口并未完全封闭。2、并未破发,说明大家对中概股还没那么悲观。3、逆袭腾讯不是不可能。4、网易系的开端,后面还有方三文的雪球、唐岩的陌陌,再远点看看李勇的粉笔网和丁秀洪的大可乐也同样有机会。

但另外一个情况是我们不得不关注的,李学凌这次割肉了,同样割肉的还有老虎基金。

为什么要放血,有没有更好的选择?恐怕没有。

在欢聚时代在业务层面有YY语音、包括YY音乐,YY教育的YY.com、多玩游戏网和手机YY等组成的业务组合下,平台之像展露无遗。与之相对的则是其同样健康的营收方式,在线游戏46%、YY音乐29%、在线广告15%+其他10%。

同时今年前三季,YY营收同比增长168%至5.53亿人民币,其中在线游戏业务同比增长107%至2.34亿元,占总营收的42.3%;YY音乐同比增长557%至1.8亿元,占总营收的32.5%。去年同期为净亏损8718万元的YY,今年前三季净利润竟高达5595万元——在李学凌看来,这次他能够成功“登船”,得益于公司基本面的强大,但这种强大的基本面还可以撑多久?

向后看:企鹅会醒?

企鹅厉兵秣马,在腾讯的地盘上,你可以动马化腾的搜索,你可以动马化腾的浏览器,但绝对不会让它人染指QQ这一腾讯的根基——米聊便是最好的例子。

在2010年12月,第一版米聊刚刚问世时,雷军在一次聚餐里曾说:“如果腾讯介入这个领域,那米聊成功的可能性就会被大大降低,介入得越早,我们成功的难度越大。据内部消息,腾讯给了我们3个月的时间。”但2011年1月21日,微信的iOS 1.0版本就上线了。

不过可以庆幸的是,目前企鹅尚未苏醒。即便如此凭借腾讯的人才储备,任何强势介入将是致命的,这不仅是一场用户之战,还会是一场成本之争,无论是IDC、CDN、架构能力、渠道、宣传都将成为YY的痛点,如若YY在竞争中净利再次转低甚至变负,基本面的崩塌恐怕亦将上市泡汤。

向左右看:其实对手不仅仅是腾讯

京东的为如今如此境如此窘迫?只因他将各领域最强大对手纷纷引入,从当当到苏宁国美,甚至还招惹到了天猫。

YY也同样存在这样的问题,也许YY的低调并不会主动调戏对手,但所谓冤家路窄,9158同样作为屌丝群落中的战斗丝已然蓄势待发,而在YY教育的竟业者中,已不乏传课、多贝、展视互动这样的替代品,何况谁说唱吧不能成为移动端的YY音乐?

竞争便意味着投入,投入便意味着……

向前看:YY需要品牌的爆发 Down-round 又如何

YY的主要营收来自在线游戏的联营和用户购买增值服务后的分成,目前网页游戏的用户获取价格越来越高,而渠道也越发分散,在移动游戏和Pad游戏逐渐兴起的今天,网页游戏的前景处于盲态,很难说这是一个长期可依赖的变现方式,更何况如果游戏应收持续增长的话,作为一个平台上市的YY远比作为一个网页游戏联营公司要来的有说服力。

在用户增值服务方面,在占领了部分底层用户后,此时YY所需要的是爆发性的用户量提升和平台中各业务的均衡增长,毕竟9158声称其已获得了同行业中70%的营收。如果细心的话,可以发现在今年互联网企业大肆缩招的同时,YY的校园招聘中提供了多达500个岗位,如何扩大品牌,吸引人才?这时IPO无疑是最有力的武器。

更何况Down-round又能如何?原网易门户总裁、粉笔网CEO李勇对此就曾谈到:“老虎基金不反对折价IPO,说明老虎基金身心健康啊。折价IPO不过是让它上一轮的投资减值显性化了,本身并不会导致什么变化,如果它确信自己之前对YY的估值,此次它还可以以更低的价格来认购。内心强大的投资者啊。”

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