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近日,苹果CEO蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)在旧金山主持高盛投资者会议的主题演引发了业内的关注,其中涉及到诸多业内对于苹果的疑问,其中其声称的苹果并非是一家硬件公司的说法令业内不免有些吃惊。其实业内对于苹果究竟是一家什么样的公司一直持有争议,那么苹果究竟是不是一家硬件公司?

从苹果营收和利润的构成上看,其iPhone和iPad的销售占据了接近70%—80%的份额,可以说苹果应该是一家不折不扣的硬件公司。尽管库克拿出了App Store的营收竭力向外界证明苹果的营收也来自于应用和服务,但只要看看这块营收数字与iPhone和iPad的营收比较就很容易发现,即便是年70亿美元的收入,与iPhone和iPad相比,也相距甚远。既然如此,库克为何要执意否认这点呢?

实际上不止库克,业内为数不少的人提及苹果时,都认为苹果不是一家硬件公司,并据此认为单纯的硬件没有前途,也以此来证明三星与苹果之间的差距,这就是所谓的苹果生态系统。而提及生态系统,移动互联网中还有人们熟知的谷歌Android、微软的Windows Phone以及黑莓的生态系统等。但谁都清楚,Android生态系统中,Android本身是免费提供给合作伙伴的,谷歌是依靠系统之上的搜索、广告等相关服务来获得营收,而Windows Phone的营收来源则是依靠向合作伙伴收取系统使用的授权费用,黑莓也是靠出售手机硬件本身获利,至少占据了黑莓营收的60%—70%。通过这些目前主流生态系统的营收方式不难看出,尽管都是生态系统,但盈利膜式却大相径庭,而这也在某种程度上决定了这些生态系统所在企业的属性。谷歌严格意义上讲是一家互联网广告公司,微软是软件企业,黑莓则是手机厂商。

所以说脱离核心盈利模式来谈论生态系统是没有任何意义的。言外之意,生态系统只是这些巨头们对外形成差异化竞争及比较竞争优势的一种方法。以此再回过头来看库克的言论就很容易理解。在过去的2012年,苹果在iPhone和iPad的创新上遭受了较大的瓶颈和巨大的外部竞争压力。而这些压力的最大来源就是以硬件为核心的三星。

但具有讽刺意味的是,业内诟病三星不具备与苹果竞争实力和可持续发展的焦点就在于三星不像苹果具有完整的生态系统,尽管三星是依靠同样强大的谷歌Android生态系统而对苹果造成威胁,不过从营收和利润的角度看,二者真正的较量还是在硬件(智能手机和平板电脑)的创新、出货量、市场份额、营收和利润。而业内认为苹果未来面临最大的挑战和担心也是来自这些,这恰证明,苹果核心盈利模式本身与三星相比的优势正在缩小。但由于三星没有自己的生态系统(系统、应用和服务),或者这是与苹果相比最大的劣势,所以库克否认苹果是硬件公司,而拿App Store来说事,不免有避实就虚之嫌,毕竟苹果自己的核心盈利模式仍是在硬件。但这从另外的角度看,库克已经意识到苹果未来遭遇的压力及在硬件创新上的瓶颈。

也许到此仍会有业内认为简单地将苹果归于硬件公司过于肤浅,未来应用将是苹果的核心。这个真的不敢确定,但有一点可以肯定的是,如果iPhone和iPad本身在创新、市场份额、营收和利润出现停滞或下滑的话,苹果的生态系统也会随之崩溃,所谓“皮之不存,毛将附焉”。

正是基于上述针对库克苹果不是硬件公司言论的分析,未来决定苹果公司前途和股价走势的落脚点仍在iPhone和iPad的硬件的创新、销售、营收及利润上,至于其应用及服务的增长远不是考量的重点。

作者:孙永杰


626条评论

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