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0到1000万,12个月。

1000万到2000万,4个月。

2000万到3000万,仅仅3个月。

在微信的巨大阴影下,陌陌不仅没有被打败,反倒是越做越大,无疑让很多怀揣着创业之心的IT人大鼓舞。但陌陌的用户规模在高速增长的同时,它似乎也在和自己的初心渐行渐远,这不禁让我心生疑问:陌陌,还是曾经那个陌陌吗?

Noe发在虎嗅的文章《陌陌获取3000万用户后,LBS商业化之路怎么走?》中说,陌陌的每一次更新都是在为LBS商业化布局,但我却感觉陌陌正在远离自己另一个重要的属性——“陌生人社交”。

陌陌正在革自己的命。

2.0版的更新中,陌陌首次加入了群组功能,3.0版陌陌加入地点留言,3.2版出现动态发布功能,3.3版甚至引入了熟人链。

不知道是投资人对规模和盈利的要求越来越高,还是创始团队对于陌生人社交失去信心,陌陌正在一步步IM化、微信化,但陌陌原本的道路真的走不通吗?

一、陌生人社交是刚性需求

之前陌陌最受外界质疑的就是用户黏度,而陌陌所提出的IM化其实也是为了防止用户用完陌陌之后,便将陌陌抛到一旁。但说句实话,不以满足用户需求为目标的应用都是耍流氓。

小众应用之所以能够被大家记住,就在于它能够满足人们某一方面的特定需求。而陌陌满足的便是马斯洛所提出的社交需求,而且是陌生人之间的社交需求。

中国的城市化进程越来越快,人口流动也越发频繁,这种陌生人之间的社交需求是刚性的。况且我们身边的陌生人有那么多,一时半会儿能够都认识个遍吗?

陌陌与其去涉足IM通讯,倒不如针对陌生人社交的一些特点,努力提高一下自己的交互性,更好地满足这种需求。

因为贪吃蛇在自己一点点变大的同时,也离死亡越来越近。

规模并不一定就是一切。

二、小切口是其生存根本

如果弱化了陌生人社交这个重要属性,陌陌不过就是一个LBS功能稍强一点的“山寨微信”罢了。陌陌当初之所以成功,就是因为陌生人社交这个切口足够小,小到腾讯懒得去管,才留给了陌陌足够的时间和空间。陌陌弱化了陌生人社交属性,无异于将自己之前辛辛苦苦建构的壁垒一点点拆掉。

“高筑墙,广积粮,缓称王。”把这句话送给陌陌确实挺合适。

陌陌搞的动态发布,怎么看都让人感觉像是QQ空间里面的说说,而基于通讯录的熟人链更是和微信如出一辙。看着陌陌如此迅速的壮大,微信会坐视其不管吗?

都说在中国,所有互联网公司都要面对三件事:生、死、腾讯,次序不分先后。以现在微信十几倍于陌陌的用户数,微信如果强化一下LBS功能,在陌生人社交上发一下力,陌陌的未来真的很难说。

微信既然搞大平台,陌陌为什么不做小而精。如果没有差异化,当面对一个3000万用户的应用和另一个4亿用户的相似应用时,会下载哪一个呢?

我想这个选择题不难给出答案。

三、O2O是不是一条好路?

陌陌COO王力在接受采访时表示,今年考虑商业化但非O2O形式。这真的让我很不理解,陌陌的LBS做得这么好,为什么不做O2O?

陌陌走微信那种平台化的道路,我觉着这并不靠谱,因为从陌陌的属性来看,它更像是一个工具,而非平台。而且微信已经将那个市场基本上揽进了自己怀里。

可非平台化同样意味着盈利压力的陡增,要知道Path那种靠私密通讯盈利的模式并不适合陌陌,甚至说是和陌陌是背道而驰的。

但陌陌有自己的强项,那就是LBS和陌生人社交。两个从没见过的人要见面,总不能像革命前辈们接头一样,拿张报纸坐在街边长椅上吧。

当两个人聊到要出去见面的时候,陌陌根据两人的位置,提供几个两个人都很方便到达的咖啡馆、电影院,甚至是如家、汉庭之类的快捷酒店,岂不是很贴心,很方便。

LBS对于陌陌来说就是一个做O2O的大金矿,如果不去掘一桶金,那确实有点可惜了。

总而言之,真的希望陌陌能够找到一条适合自己的道路,更希望它能够“勿忘初心”。

作者:流光逐云


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