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    最近阿里的事件我一直持闭口不谈或者少谈的态度,毕竟这个事件的理解和解读过多,说实话这个事件可大可小。大的上升到整个社会诚信体系,小到一个职业经理人的命运。只是在新华社记者都打来电话的时候,实在不好意思再次拒绝谈论,把自己的观察和思考做些整理,这些是基于对阿里及马云个人作风和决策习惯所分析,或许对大家思考该事件有些启示。
    我是分为三个方面来说的:
第一方面:马云如果不这么做,整个阿里系以诚信产品盈利的模式将受到最大程度的伤害,以一个CEO、COO和100多名销售员外加股市下跌市值蒸发的几十亿代价来看,这个决策是正确的。

    另外是业绩下滑和股价不振,这个责任作为CEO和COO肯定是要承担的,记者问我:马云是不是不看好B2B业务?我的回答是03年成立淘宝的时候他就已经不看好了,事实证明他也是正确的,毕竟B2B业务受各种环境和政策影响太大,涉及的范围过广,可控性低盈利手段单一。马云对卫哲的期望一方面是让阿里巴巴成功上市,这个显然顺利完成,另一方面则是不断将阿里的业务与淘宝融合,可是上市这几年多,卫哲在这方面的表现和淘宝、支付宝的创新和变革比起来,是相去甚远。还有就是作为CEO应该有更多的风险意识到原来的盈利模式硬伤对未来发展的影响,阿里巴巴的诚信通盈利模式会员收费一直就不稳定,这是需要变革的,当然卫哲也做了尝试,只是这个尝试显然不够让人满意,于是这个一直以来有硬伤的商业模式终于出大问题。

     这个问题直接影响到整个阿里系,阿里集团旗下有四大诚信产品:诚信通、消费者保障计划、支付宝和淘宝商城(正品),如果任由这种商业模式持续下去,整个阿里集团的诚信产品体系未来的发展会受到极大的威胁!再有来自外部的竞争,包括京东、当当等在建立初期紧紧抓住正品和诚信的定位在近10年时间成功占领了消费者心智,面对这些内部商业模式硬伤和外部竞争环境,作为CEO是需要提前做出布局和调整的。
    
    话说回来,毕竟还有资本的压力在这里,加上董事会、监事会也需要负一定责任,从这一点来说,卫哲作为职业经理人确实会有可原谅的一面,这也是马云表态卫哲仍然有重回阿里的可能,除了这个之外,更深一层的意思和淘宝大物流战略有关,马云通过与外部第三方合作入股甚至投资等方式大物流上失败之后,非常需要一个懂得传统零售业物流体系的人来构建这个计划。那拥有百安居多年从业经验,深知零售业物流和非标准化商品物流的卫哲来说,无疑是最合适的人选。

第二方面:这是国际上的惯例和常用的做法,包括像IBM、苹果公司、雅虎在内均是通过CEO辞职或开除替换的方式完成新的业务转型,也只有这种方式被证明是最快速和行之有效的。

第三方面:新华社的记者问我:庄帅,你作为中国电子商务协会的高级专家和电商的职业经理人,你认为陆兆禧负责阿里靠谱么?我的回答也是肯定的。为什么这么说?

1、陆是实现淘宝盈利的CEO,在任期间开发的消费者保障计划、淘宝直通车、建立了淘宝商城都是很具创新的产品。
2、陆在淘宝建立的业务模型和盈利模式是根据系统设计的,人为干预较少,中间的灰色收入地带就很少(我曾经多次说过做电子商务可以有效规避贪污腐败,事实上也是可行的)。包括交保证金和广告费用交纳的各种方式,都是由支付宝来完成。这个业务模型和盈利模式设计是基于系统基础的,而当年的阿里巴巴是基于市场基础设计的,人为因素较多,导致管理和运营风险一直存在。陆负责阿里之后,在内多半会移植淘宝的成功实践到阿里,重新改造阿里的业务模型及盈利模式,这个很快就有变化。
3、外贸B2B模式如果说阿里业绩不振的话,实际上其竞争对手慧聪、网盛这些也好不到哪里去。毕竟汇率、政策因素这些宏观的内容不是一家或几家企业能够轻易控制和改变的。另外这种B2B模式本身在资金结算、货物交付仍然很传统(多数仍然在线下脱离B2B平台完成),这也是马云多次说阿里是一家传统公司的原因。淘宝的零售模式可控的东西多(物流较难控制),且交易的资金均是在同一平台完成,交易规模达到一定程度,其创造的价值和收益是交易规模是十倍甚至百倍规模的B2B交易规模无法比拟的。包括后续的外贸内贸化,外贸零售化这两个新的机遇和外贸领域的发展和消费趋势也是阿里未来真正能够创造大于淘宝现在价值的地方所在!加上政府对于外贸零售化(外贸B2C)的态度也决定了马云的决心,毕竟如果真的如我曾经写过的《支付宝肩负着人民币国际化的重任》文中设想的,所有的资金兑换和交易从现在的汇市转换到支付宝平台内完成,那人民币国际化的进程将大大加快,而B2B的业务模式缺陷显然无法担当此重任,可外贸B2C的特点却有极大的可能。

    记者还担心陆会不会两头兼顾太累、这事件对职业经理人的影响、是不是公关炒作事件等等外界阴谋论的提法,在我看来,与企业盈利和未来的发展、外部的竞争比起来,这些都是浮云了!


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