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最近帮一家叫“木头公园”的家具B2C在一周内卖出两万多元的床、椅子和沙发,客单价近3000元之后,我开始怀疑O2O是否可以成为商业模式!特别是对于新品牌来说,这家叫“木头公园”的家具B2C没有实体店,但依托了全国排名前三的实木家具企业“华日”加工生产,华日集团本身在线下有900多家实体店。这个小案例让我想起在2003~2004年在淘宝开店卖手机的经历,一年200多万的销售业绩一没有通过支付宝,二我自己根本不可能开实体店,客单价1000多元。

10年前和10年后,不同的只是品类相同的是售卖方式。10年前被质疑10年后仍然被质疑,10年前不可能做任何回应也无须回应只需要满足网购人群在价格和服务上的需求;10年后回应得有点疲倦,只能通过实践来验证O2O是否可以成为商业模式?两万元不足以支撑这个论断,或许只有到2000万甚至2个亿才会有说服力,但无论如何,这是个开始,一个让人匪夷所思的开始。

现在我们来看看成为O2O成为商业模式需要具备哪些条件?

首先是有线上商城(或平台上的网店)和线下实体店(可以是独立的也可以开在商业地产里),而且线上商城和实体店均可以正常售卖商品或服务。在这个基础上,需要做到两件事情:

一是同价,二是库存同步

先来说同价:在线上这个O的价格体系里,价格设置和调价已经完全电子化,这种电子化的结果就是调价非常容易,包括价格的审批权限设置与审批都全程电子化,整个价格设置和价格调整都是透明且可控可追溯的。这个方面比线下那个O的先进性已经领先一个世纪。线下的调价体系受限于“价签”及对应的ERP系统,一方面是无法做到即时大批量调价,一方面是无法在系统里快速体现,更无法可视化体现,只能通过SKU码单一识别。所以如果要实现线上线下(020)的同价,线下必须换成“电子价签”,同时更换或对接电商的ERP系统,实现价格的同步设置和更改。电子价签的成本如果按照0.2元计算,每家店10万个SKU,共计1000家店,那成本就是0.2*10万~1000=2000万元。这还只是价签固定成本(当然这个成本有可能再降低),其它的价签更换成本和维护成本未计算在内。这也是为什么电子价签在全世界范围都难已快速推进实施的原因。

如果这是一家零售商,那么同价的策略需要品牌商来配合进行,如何对接品牌商线下的ERP系统、线上的网店后台、以及设置好审批权限就成为非常复杂的事情。如果还涉及到采购商品(零售商定价权限高)和商家入驻开店商品(零售商无定价权限),以及零售商定价权限低,同价的问题就变得异常复杂起来。

二是库存同步,这个方面首先是涉及到线上的实体店、零售商仓库、品牌商仓库三个实体,其次就是品牌商多渠道的库存管理,这些渠道包括商业地产零售商的实体店、独立的品牌专卖实体店、加盟的品牌商实体店(含独立和商业地产零售商内开的店);还有网上的零售商平台、第三方开店的平台、闪购团购等供货平台,这些构成了多维的库存矩阵,这个库存矩阵又将分布在多个系统中进行库存的管理,而且零售商、网络第三方平台、品牌商在管理库存的系统又无法统一,在这样的情况下,要实现O2O的库存同步,似乎和“维护世界和平”的难度差不多。

同价和库存同步这两个方面是商业模式是否能够成立最基础的两件事情,这两件事情如果没办法通过系统、流程和制度的方式在零售商、网络平台、品牌商和消费者四者之间做好,消费者很难进入到这个O2O的闭环商业模式里,那么就会依然存在着线上和线下的销售区隔,这种区隔在线上零售商疯狂的营销创新和联动式的价格战驱动下,消费迁移属于必然。这个趋势的发展让实体店不堪运营成本的重负,在未达成同价和库存同步之前就会开始大范围关店,因为体验在许多品类并不成为必须经过的一环。

其次O2O的商业模式就是退换货部分,实体店和网上商城要实行同样的退换货政策并且同样的方便和快捷,对于实体店来说,是否可以就近原则去消费者家中取货完成退换货成为很关键的部分,这个部分涉及到的是实体店店员的职能转变以及相对应的成本上升,以销售额为KPI考核的实体店店员成为售后服务人员无论是从激励机制还是职能调整,都将面临着巨大的压力和成本投入。而作为纯电商来说,快递人员的职责非常明确且单一,除了送货外还可以上门取货,至于是取要送的货还是退换的货,流程和激励机制都可以满足。无论是哪种对于纯电商公司来说都是有利的。那么在退换货环节,线上的O已经占据了明显优势,特别是对于自建物流的大型纯电商平台来说。一方面服务的是已购买的消费者,另一方面也是在服务潜在的有快递需求的顾客(如果上门退换货取件满意,自己或所任职的公司有快递要发当然首选该电商快递服务)。

而线下实体店在这个职能的调整并非可以一蹴而就,在没有实现之前仍然存在着由于电商份额的快速占领导致实体店销量下滑、成本进一步上升之后的关店可能。

一旦这两个核心原因让实体店无法纳入到线上的体系中来,成为提供服务的一份子,那么O2O的闭环就无法形成,闭环无法形成商业模式就很难成立。

在O2O商业模式无法成立的情况下,O2O作为营销的方式是个不错的选择,但这只是短暂的争取实体店进行以上进化的时间罢了,毕竟“天下武功,唯快不破!”,电商与实体拼的“速度”已经让线上望尘莫及!


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