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在8月写了专栏分析文章《菜鸟的野心和马云O2O的局》明确说明了通过菜鸟和天猫,来颠覆传统百货业以租赁为主的盈利模式,通过免费提供实体店以及天猫与品牌商共同实现线上线下同价,并且通过大促的方式让品牌商完成O2O,使得百货业全线亏损的终极野心和O2O的布局。如何得到印证要等2013年的天猫双11到来,不过与银泰百货的联手已经在紧锣密鼓地进行。而对于腾讯的微信来说,这场对线下的侵袭来得似乎更加自然和和风细雨,天虹百货居然很高调地加入微信的阵营来实现O2O的发展。对于这个前提传统百货业为什么要去选这条路,难道当年进军电商的壮志被磨灭了?实际上对于传统百货业来说,做电商面临的窘境包括几个方面:

一、电商战略无法确定,做电商到底是为了什么?要做成什么样?这些战略性问题没有任何一家百货零售商可以清晰地回答,说到底根本没有战略或建立不了所谓的战略,毕竟对于电商到底是什么没有多少家百货业真正了解清楚,对于现在的电商企业最终到底会是什么,也没有人会知道。这是随着市场而变向各个行业渗透的电商,你说你更懂百货业,发现它在做支付;你说你更懂商家,发展它在做金融信贷;你说你更懂消费者,发现它在搞大数据做精准营销卖竞价广告位一年赚两百多亿;你懂的它似乎不用懂或者比你更懂,你不懂的它却做得比懂的还好。在这样的情况下,百货业根本不知道也无法清晰地制定自己的电商战略。

二、天猫完成了规模化发展,成为线上虚拟商业地产的老大之后,由于互联网的马太效应,不再可能出现第二家天猫,从商业模式上来说,相当于断了百货业想成为线上虚拟商业地产,匹配实体商业地产的商业模式不再可能。于是从西单爱购商城开始到做得稍有起色的银泰网都改变了自己商业地产的商业模式,通过自采建仓的方式来发展电子商务。虽然说不断提高自营比例成为整个百货业未来发展的共识,但是在没有规模的前提下,自营的发展异常缓慢。电商似乎带来了一线希望,只是遗憾的是京东、当当们将自采的路又给断了。无论是人才还是自采流程、制度、系统等就是通过电商的方式百货业仍然不可能实现后发制人。

三、在互联网时代获取流量与线下选址获取流量的极大不同,使得传统百货业进军电商首先从流量获取的方法上没办法和一出身就在线上抢流量的电商企业PK,在成本上更加不具备优势。毕竟电商两大巨头已经完成地位的建立,加上媒体在这五年电商的发展过程中,流量成本上涨了十几倍。电商巨头自己的流量已经趋于稳定,一方面像淘宝、天猫都开始通过流量变现来赚钱,京东也启动了POP平台进行流量变现。另一方面则是开始将广告做到线下获取更多的流量,转化更多人群到电商平台。百货业不仅线上流量争抢能力太弱成本太高,线下的流量也眼睁睁看着被电商平台以及在电商平台运营的品牌商联合转化抢夺。

四、线上平台运营能力不足导致用户无法沉淀,对于只会建立官网的百货业来说,面对建设好的电商平台根本不知道自己该运营什么要运营成什么样!加上技术能力和技术和运营人才的不足(详见专栏文章《轻视技术的传统零售业做电商必死》,体制和企业文化无法满足电商的快速变化和动态发展,使得平台运营始于上线也终于上线,不知道怎么从一个简单的电商网站通过运营规划匹配技术和销售规模不断发展的路径和方法,或者部分人知道也受限于缓慢的决策机制和技术瓶颈没办法在快速反应的市场环境做得前瞻性的变革。

这四个主要的窘境让传统百货业在电商化的进程中未见多少成功案例,哪怕是做得最好

的银泰网也只能在2000~4000单每日徘徊,更别提每天只有几十单十几单但投入接近一个亿的其它百货电商平台。无论是百货业的内部还是外部的人才实际上对于整个百货业做电商几乎完全失去信心,品牌商家则迫于在百货大楼内还有实体店所以不得已和百货业的电商业务一起折腾,但已经在这些电商业务中气若游丝,而在天猫、京东甚至是以3C连锁发展为主业发展起来的电商业务——苏宁易购中这些百货品牌商获得良性的业务增长,使这一切形成恶性循环,百货业做电商已经到了崩溃的边缘。

或许对于50多岁、30多岁和20多岁的百货业各零售品牌来说,面对如日中天10几岁的电商平台和互联网英才们,是时候接受命运的安排,重新回到线下好好打理柜台的尘灰和抹亮暗淡的地板,用心规划动线的设计和商家的构成,在人们腻烦了宅在家中希望健康有氧活动重返“逛街大潮”,在品牌商在电商发展价格战受伤的过程重拾品牌价值的自信推动同价的时机,在移动互联网更快更容易地链接线下实体的趋势下。开始思考所谓弯道超车或者其它重大意义的电商业务是否真有必要以现在的方式进行,还是死了做电商的心,顺应潮流携手BAT(百度、阿里、腾讯)互联网及移动互联网三巨头以及京东、当当甚至是跨界而来的苏宁易购新三贵,在线下没有千店规模的无奈下,别再拿美国前十名的电商有9家是实体店来蒙蔽自己,老老实实做个新经济下的配角吧!

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iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@gmail.com。


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