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文/DoNews博客作家 王臣汉

河川大厦是天津市手机档口最为密集的商厦之一。旺季时这里的每个摊位都能迎来数十乃至上百位顾客。

王彤是这里诸多店主之一,在他柜台侧墙上有一张已经陈旧褪色的老旧海报,其上有诺基亚的标志以及曾经的口号“科技以人为本”。

“最好的时候,光(诺基亚)E72我一天就卖过26台。”对那段“好时光”,王彤仍有记忆:那个时候iPhone还不成气候,只有发烧友才问货、多半还嫌价格高;后来Android不温不火了一阵子,也跑不出小众的圈子。

“不过从2010年下半年开始,客户都只问iPhone和HTC的那几款机器了。”

王彤的感受是诺基亚全球境遇的一个缩影。从那时起,诺基亚的销售每况愈下。截至今年7月20日,诺基亚发布2012年第二季度财报,虽然该季度销售额达到75亿欧元、相比第一季度有1亿欧元的增长,但较去年同期仍下降了19%。诺基亚本季度的运营亏损仍高达8.26亿欧元。

诺基亚无疑是2G时代的霸主。2000年其销售额增长了57%,达到近180亿美元;2001年、2002年,朗讯、爱立信亏损几十亿美元时,诺基亚却盈利52亿美元。但从2004年开始,诺基亚的好日子就走到了尽头,当年其全球市场份额从2002年巅峰期的51%跌到32.6%,其后在智能手机的追击下更是一路下滑。

为改变这种被动局面,2010年9月,加拿大人史蒂夫·艾洛普(Stephen Elop)应邀出任诺基亚新执行总裁兼CEO,成为其历史上第一位非芬兰裔CEO。

2011年初,媒体披露了诺基亚内部的一份名为“燃烧的平台”的备忘录——在备忘录中,艾洛普认为诺基亚当时的处境,就像发现自己身处燃烧的钻井平台上的北海油井工人一样危险。一方面是苹果、 谷歌等在智能手机领域日渐增强的优势,另一方面其自身在智能手机市场、低端手机市场双双失利,“设备对设备”的市场策略也被证明是错误的。

随后,艾洛普抛出了一系列重磅的激进改革方案以“跳海求生”。其中最令人注目的是放弃塞班系统(Symbian,手机操作系统),这曾是诺基亚赖以奠定智能设备领域网站地位的利器。另外将几近完成的诺基亚与英特尔携手开发的便携设备系统MeeGo转为实验室项目,转而和微软结成“战略合作伙伴”,在软件系统层转向微软的Windows Phone。

艾洛普的策略和他的职业生涯有着密切关系。从1998年开始在Macromedia的7年任期内,艾洛普曾带领团队“在Flash技术赌了一把”,最终成功。Macromedia于2005年****给了Adobe;而互联网也因为Flash而走进了富媒体时代。这个经历让其受到微软CEO鲍尔默的青睐,2008年艾洛普受邀赴任微软业务部总裁并在此后成为Office项目的负责人。

然而这次艾洛普的“赌一把”并没能挽救诺基亚,反而使它在衰退的泥淖中越陷越深。

在其上任后,诺基亚的2011年第一季度财报显示其经营并没有任何起色反而跌得更深, 这家手机制造商在全球智能手机市场中的占比从上一季度的40%下滑到当季的31%;运营利润则从2009年同期的14.7亿欧元下滑26%到10.9亿欧元。

2011年第二季度由于设备与服务业务出现了历史性亏损,直接导致诺基亚净亏损近9亿欧元。

更值得注意的是,根据2011年7月21日其发布的当年第二季度财报显示,去年二季度诺基亚大中华区的销售额相比一季度暴跌53%。此前亚太市场一直被认为是诺基亚抵抗衰退的防火墙。近年来中国智能设备的市场成长速度居世界首位,苹果、三星等Android设备制造厂商因此大幅增长。同样在其2011年第二季度财报显示,诺基亚在中国的市场占有率却一路下跌,由去年第二季度的30.4%大跌到今年一季度的11%。7月14日多家境内外媒体报道,诺基亚将关闭上海和成都的两个销售办事处以节省成本。

这只是艾洛普式改革对诺基亚最表层最具象的伤害。其策略不仅使得本来围绕诺基亚正在生长的一个生态体系遭遇瓦解,也可能使得诺基亚丧失再度雄起的机会。2011年美国财经网站24/7 Wall St.评出了2012年即将消失的十大品牌,诺基亚榜上有名。

诺基亚前任CEO康培凯在任内,本已采取相应动作扭转诺基亚在智能设备市场上的劣势,包括开始逐步淡化已经老旧的塞班设备;和Intel结盟共同打造基于Linux的MeeGo系统;并通过跨平台的开发工具Qt聚拢开发者。这是追赶苹果、谷歌的计划。依托诺基亚原有的品牌影响力、技术实力和销售渠道,彼时还有放手一搏的机会。

艾洛普甫一上任,却全盘推翻了原有的计划,而转投微软的怀抱。

在2011年6月高通的Uplinq会议上,艾洛普解释与微软合作的原因:“我们和微软发现彼此的优势可以互补。我们的优势在于硬件设计和供应链管理,而微软拥有软件和操作系统。”

艾洛普解释说,与微软的全面合作不仅能节省大部分软件开发成本,同时通过向微软提供地图、支付等基础服务,能换来数十亿美金的补贴和广告分成。

根据双方协议中所披露的部分,诺基亚将为双方的合作贡献出自有的运营商支付渠道,成为Windows Phone的组成部分。这是诺基亚与全世界数百家运营商合作建立的、全球覆盖面最广的运营商渠道。其次诺基亚自有的地图业务也作为Bing的一部分而整合进入Windows Phone。

然而怎么看这都是一个对微软更有利的买卖。首先是在Windows Phone还应者寥寥时,获得了硬件巨头诺基亚的全力支持。其次微软在将诺基亚的服务整合进入自己的移动系统后,可以将其开放给HTC、三星等诺基亚的竞争对手并收取系统授权费。有趣的是和微软结成战略联盟后,诺基亚也要像其他厂商一样向微软缴纳Windows Phone的授权使用金,尽管其中的地图和运营商渠道曾属于他们自己。

而诺基亚从微软获得的补贴和广告收入是否合算?实际情况是,仅地图服务一项诺基亚的前期成本就高达百亿美元。2007年其花费81亿美元收购了全美第二大地图服务提供商Navteq,此后又不断增加投入用以改造和整合。

至于为何要弃MeeGo而转向Windows Phone,艾洛普解释为“很难利用MeeGo建立起一个设备系列”。但诺基亚负责相关工作的Felipe Contreras完全不同意,他指出MeeGo可以使用德州仪器(Texas Instruments)处理器生产多款设备;由于其开源特性,MeeGo也能像Android一样获得社区的支持、并由此推出系列化的设备。

转向Windows Phone之后,艾洛普表示诺基亚原有的开发者工具Qt不会支持开发Windows Phone应用。这导致像Jan Ole Suhr这样的明星开发者转投iOS或Android,如果他们为Windows Phone做开发,则需要重新学习、适应微软的开发工具;而至2011年初市场上甚至还没有基于这个系统的原型机。 直到2011年底,诺基亚基于Windows Phone系统的Lumia(极光)系列手机才在市场上出现。

开发者群体的流失,对诺基亚而言是个巨大损失,此前Jan Ole Suhr曾开发出Twitter客户端Gravity,其对塞班的影响甚至超过愤怒的小鸟之于iOS。

在塞班饱受消费者冷淡、Windows Phone又遥遥无期时,诺基亚于2011年6月发售了首款、也是最后一款基于Meego的设备N9。这是艾洛普的无奈之举,他需要用一款产品来度过这个真空期,虽然此前他已宣布弃用MeeGo。

N9却取得了远超艾洛普预料出的成功:这个系统尚未完善的设备仅仅在局部地区发售,在当时仍然取得了不俗的市场成绩。根据诺基亚的财报推算,N9的当季发货量达到150万到200万台;反观诺基亚花了大力气推广的Lumia 800,其2011年第四季度的出货量却只有80-100万台。

这种成功或许本该预料到,N9的模型机以及其此前系列的早期产品N-900都有不错的市场口碑。

但这依然没有改变艾洛普弃用MeeGo的决定,在接受芬兰当地报纸《Helsingin Sanomat》采访时他表示:“即使N9取得了巨大的成功,我们还是会放弃基于Linux的操作系统。”这包括了MeeGo、Android等。

讽刺的是,笃信微软的艾洛普却遭遇了背叛。2012年5月初,艾洛普刚在采访中表示诺基亚“完全可以利用微软的技术和系统构建一部Windows平台的平板。”鲍尔默就于一个月后召开新闻发布会、推出了微软自有品牌的平板电脑Surface以及全新的操作系统Windows 8和WP8。

同时微软表示将不再为WP7提供下一代系统升级,这恰恰是Lumia的操作系统。当美国科技博客All Things Digital问鲍尔默“微软的合作伙伴对此态度如何”时,鲍尔默表示无可奉告。

随着微软的这个公告,诺基亚的股价应声滑落,到7月中旬已接近16年来的最低点。投资者们不得不怀疑:如今的诺基亚还有翻身之日么?曾在Twitter上频繁爆料并屡屡命中的科技界深喉、《mobile-review》主编Eldar Murtazin 甚至公然宣称,艾洛普在入职诺基亚之时和微软就早有默契,后者迟早会收购诺基亚的手机业务。

传言未可尽信。然而诺基亚内部对艾洛普激进策略的质疑却早已有之,他们也曾试图阻止艾洛普。早在去年初,由芬兰人和诺基亚员工构成的小股东们就曾尝试发动“Nokia Plan B”计划,试图驱逐艾洛普以回到公司原先的轨道上。

在发现表达不满不能改变艾洛普这个加拿大人时,诺基亚的核心人员开始接二连三地出走。比如前MeeGo产品总监Jussi Hurmola、前MeeGo首席工程师Marc Dillon以及部分前诺基亚员工共同创建了名为Jolla的公司,专注于MeeGo智能设备和应用开发。

在芬兰语中, Jolla是“小艇”的意思。值得玩味的是,这艘“小艇”在刚刚驶离后就获得了诺基亚的资金和专利支持。诺基亚官方甚至还为此事发表了一段简短的声明,确认给了Jolla支持。这或许是诺基亚内部仍然希望公司可以做出更多尝试、而不是作为微软的附庸存在下去的一种征兆。

对艾洛普而言,如何洗脱掉“微软的家伙”这个名声、重振诺基亚才是当务之急。

转载请注明 DoNews博客认证作家/王臣汉


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