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文/DoNews社区作者 chris9207

1、线上成本是不是一定比线下低?

本质上,实体店和电商都是零售渠道的一种存在方式。电商固然能省下租金、人工等线下成本,但要付出获取流量等线上成本。简单的比较没有意义,我建议把具体的营收规模和固定费用结合起来分析。

举个极端的例子,如果网上购物都像淘宝店那样,租金省掉,流量靠淘宝这个大集市来获取,自家房子当仓库,那成本当然要比实体店低很多。但如果大型电商的网购就是这个水平,用户体验一定会很差。

亚马逊的成功之处在于保持低价的同时,彻底颠覆了消费者的购物体验。但为了实现极致的客户体验,是需要投入巨额的固定成本的,比如IT、仓储、物流等等,标准越高,投入越大。贝索斯在2000年致股东信中说的很清楚:“在线销售(相同于传统零售)是一个高固定成本,低可变成本的规模经营模式,这也使得公司很难发展成为一家中等规模的电商公司。”

一定的收入规模是实现这种商业模式最为核心的基础。所以大型综合性电商必须要有庞大的业务量来摊销固定成本,才能有效降低单位成本,从而维持业务运转的可持续性,推动“降价—销量增长—更低的单位成本—更大的降价空间”的“价格成本结构循环”。也正因为如此,在亚马逊的创业阶段,公司把获取收入和现金流放在最优先的位置,而不是利润。

所以,我要说的是,把用户体验成本固定化,在投资效率基本一致的前提下,必然是收入规模越大、收入增速领先成本增速的幅度越大,单位成本越低。

基于这样的分析框架,各位可以重点研究一下京东、卓越亚马逊、国美、苏宁这些企业目前的收入基数,未来的收入增速,以及为支撑这样的收入规模和相应的购物体验所要投入的资本开支。然后再来比较单位成本的高低,结论会更可靠一些。

2、实体店会不会大幅萎缩甚至消失?换句话说,实体店对苏宁来说到底是一个优势还是累赘?

据我所知,到目前为止,还没有哪一个国家出现因为网络购物的兴起而导致实体店完全消失的案例。所以,在可以预见的将来,家电实体店在国内彻底绝迹应该是不太可能的事情。

那会不会大幅萎缩呢?换个角度来思考这个问题。既然大家都不看好家电连锁卖场的发展前景,都把业务重心放到拓展线上市场,那么线下市场实际上已经不太可能出现强有力的新进入者了。也就是说,只要家电线下零售这个行业不消失,未来对苏宁来说,最差的情况不过是维持美苏两强寡头垄断的格局,如果国美再倒下去,苏宁就是一家独大了。只要挺过这轮经济低谷,日子就不会难过。

但还是有很多人担心实体店会完全沦为电商的线下体验店,并反复举百思买的例子——这家曾经被看不上本土家电连锁企业的专业人士们推崇备至的跨国巨头,如今彻底变成了反面教材。客观的讲,百思买的衰落主要是其自身战略失误和创新不足的原因,而不能简单归结为电商的冲击,否则无法解释Fry’s 的兴起(多数人大概没有听过Fry’s的名字)。

贝索斯曾经认为,在实体店中,零售商可以使用技术来减少成本,但他们不会改变消费者体验。我始终觉得这个结论下得过于武断了。尽管我无法完整地呈现未来的线下体验会发生什么样的变革,但从海外实体店的发展趋势以及苏宁所描述的EXPO超级旗舰店和正在试水的乐购仕生活广场大概能看出一些影子。也许现在说这样的话还有些早,但如果线下实体店能在保持与线上同价的同时,在购物体验上实现质的飞跃,电商的优势无疑将受到严重削弱。更何况国内现有的电商,包括阿里系在内,购物体验还远不能与亚马逊相提并论,苏宁并不是完全没有机会。目前来看,国内零售企业有实力或者说有潜力扭转局面的也只有苏宁。

退一步来说,即使苏宁的线下业务只能做到固守,线上业务至少还有一争。

3、线上和线下业务是不是单纯的左右手互博?

这个问题其实与上一个问题是相关的。

假如实体店彻底沦为体验场所,那么线上与线下就必然是替代关系,苏宁发展线上业务只能以牺牲实体店为代价。事实是不是果真这样,各位可以结合上述两个问题自己判断。

另外我再补充两点:

第一、苏宁未来几年实体连锁店的发展战略是在一线城市逐渐关闭社区店,增开或改造超级旗舰店,新开门店将主要集中在三四线城市。意图很明显:一线城市尽量避免线上与线下的直接冲突,方向是“线上标准化,线下体验化”;在多数电商尚无力企及的三四线城市先一步占领市场,连锁店作为易购和物流的前哨阵地,实现“有苏宁的地方就有苏宁易购”。就现阶段而言,一线城市的门店调整才刚开始起步,但三四线城市的渠道下沉和物流配送优势已经体现出来了。

第二、相比家电零售,百货行业的规模量级更大。苏宁的转型不光是做电商这么简单,而是要面向一个更加广阔的市场,这才是“去电器化”、做中国的“沃尔玛亚马逊”的真正含义。有些人质疑一直做家电零售的苏宁是否做的了百货,我认为这完全是外行的说法。苏宁团队在互联网方面的短板是显而易见的,但要说对零售行业的理解和把握,国内恐怕无出其右。再者,原来当当只卖图书、京东只卖3C产品,其实这两家全面转向卖百货的时间也不长,苏宁扩充经营品类的话,基础并不比它们差。

4、最后是人的问题

本来这不在讨论的范围之内,而且免不了会带有主观偏见,但鉴于这个问题的重要性,我不得不谈。所谓投资企业就是投人,人的问题始终占据核心的位置。

一直以来业界和投资界对苏宁管理团队的评价都颇高,我自己也参加过苏宁的股东大会,印象确实不错。张近东为人低调,但实际上很霸气,整个公司完全在他的掌控之下。我最看重的品质是他的诚信,这次的溢价增发只是其中一个例子。但再优秀的企业也不能避免犯错误,错失了进军电子商务的最佳时机导致了如今陷入被动的局面。

有些人看好苏宁的转型,有些人则不看好,各自都有各自的道理。我要说的是什么呢?苏宁有一个谨慎务实的团队,但也绝不缺乏创新的精神。如果哪一天这家企业真的失败了,那也不是因为它没有转型的勇气和决心。苏宁的企业战略比一般人想象的要长远,如今我们看到的国际化探索、物流体系的搭建、连锁布局的更新,其实早在很多年前就已经开始规划了。所以我说苏宁的物流迟早会超过京东不是完全没有根据的。这个团队也不乏在执行力层面的历练,否则无法在与国美的长期竞争中胜出。苏宁的成功是在市场化条件下经受过严格考验的。因此,我提醒轻视苏宁的人,不要低估一颗冠军的心。

至于京东,我能从公开渠道得到的信息有限,对它的了解要比苏宁少的多。无论如何,能够从十几年前中关村的一个小柜台发展到今天的规模,不得不说是另一个传奇。但这个公司的团队让我感到不安。首先是刘强东自己,刘无疑是一个有抱负也很有能力的人,不过他的缺陷也很明显,过于强势和高调的性格害了他。这次的微博营销表面上看很成功,但实际上让一个企业家在消费者面前的诚信形象损失殆尽。市场传言刘跟各大VC股东们的关系紧张,在最需要钱的时候居然还在微博上高调地跟投资人吵架,这实在是很不明智。10周年庆遭遇各大电商围攻,本次价格战,几个跳出来的供应商针对的都是京东,仅仅是树大招风,还是本身与同行和供应商的关系处理不好?

此外,京东的管理团队也不稳定,近几年副总裁级别的高管变动如走马观花一般。光是今年上半年就引进了4个,走了两个。如此频繁的人事变动是因为性格不合?意见分歧?还是别的什么原因?从企业长远发展的角度来说,京东显然没有培养出一个稳定的有凝聚力的高管团队。

因此,在人的问题上,我更愿意看好苏宁、阿里巴巴、腾讯这样的成熟稳定的团队,至于国美,等黄光裕从监狱里出来再说吧。

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