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文/前24券COO 彭雷

具备线下物理存在的服务流,和线上互联网化的信息流,只要有这两个环节的任何模式,都是O2O。

1. 什么是O2O ?

O2O,从最初诞生这个概念开始大家讲的最多就是Online 2 Offline,从字面上来看,就是把线上用户带到线下。所以这也是团购为什么被认为是O2O最典型应用,因为团购真正实现了把线上用户一夜之间带到一个商户门口去排队的效果。

而其实满足这个条件的模式不只是团购,最早的机票,酒店,票务等公司,严格来说都是O2O,甚至我认为多年前提到过的“鼠标加水泥”的概念,都可以被笼统认为是O2O的范畴。

所以我认为,具备线下物理存在的服务流,和线上互联网化的信息流,只要有这两个环节的任何模式,都是O2O。

2. 什么是O2O“失落的半圆”?

我认为除了Online 2 Offline对于O2O,其实只是一个半圆,没有闭环。这个“失落的半圆”,其实是Offline 2 Online!

以团购为例,线下商户的菜单,价格,就餐环境,桌台数量等线下信息都是团购的销售人员一个一个门店人工拜访,实地采集来获取的,然后提供到Online给网民浏览和查看。也就是说,团购为什么人员众多,是因为这个失落的半圆,是靠人工补上的,所以必然导致成本高,效率低,不够实时等问题。

所以,不论什么公司,腾讯也好,阿里也好,创业公司也好,谁能最快补上这个“失落的半圆”,并且形成一定垄断规模,谁就可以成为O2O领域真正最大的赢家。这个就像修路,修好了高速,所有O2O其他应用就是高速上面跑的不同车而已,自己只需要收过路费就可以。

因为想通了这个环节,我有了做“客如云”的想法。对我来说,这个基础框架建设并不好做。但这些思考也让我相信这个项目的战略价值。

3. 团购的利弊和前途

团购本身其实是O2O领域里面的一种模式而已,只是在过去一两年由于大量关注,而成为了行业的代表形式。总的来说,团购是一种针对线下商户非常有效的营销手段,还记得刚开始做24券的时候,我自己去签过的一个自助餐厅,一夜之间卖了10000多份自助餐,商户都惊呆了,用店长的原话说,我没想到和你们合作的效果如此恐怖,比上中央电视台效果还好,前一天门可罗雀,第二天门口就像春运的火车站!

团购模式最严重的问题有三个:

a) 商户,用户,团购网站之间缺乏忠诚度

我曾经打过比方,商户,用户,团购网站之间,就像一夜情,互相都玩的很High,但是没有建立感情。记得在24券做到2011年中竞争最激烈的时候,那个时候商户非常强势,要谈团购的时候,把4,5个一线团购网站的销售全部约到一个下午见面,在门口排着队的等着进去和商户谈条件。条件也很简单,谁收的佣金少,就给谁签约。到再往后变本加厉,谁贴钱多,谁就签约!这样的合作模式,忠诚度太低。用户也是,大部分用户通过团购导航网站浏览,大小团购网站混杂,谁的单子价格有吸引力,就点击进去。至于是哪家团购网站,并不是太介意,这样的话,用户对于团购网站的忠诚度也较低。

b) 以低价折扣作为营销手段,对于商户不可持续

对于商户来说,和团购网站合作,需要提供低价的产品,不够低价会导致吸引力不足,但是过于低价的营销,也有问题。这里面有一个悖论。价格越低,效果越好,但是未来的利润空间恢复的越慢,因为消费者认可了你的三折,你的正价时段销售额就会受到影响。这个就像用未来的利润来贴补借给今天的业绩,有点像用信用卡提现,还需要支付利息,但是总的盈利能力并没有提升。

c) 资金依赖性过高

团购由于采用人海方式来补上“失落的半圆”,所以成本相当高。举个例子,24券从创业初期20-30人开始,在不到10个月的时间,增加到4700人,在全国开设了100个办公室。这种增长速度必然需要大量资金支持,只要对现金流的把控,费用的控制做的有一点问题,就容易出现资金断档。这也是去年底开始一系列团购网站面临的问题。

但是团购并不是没有出路,从目前的情况来看,团购行业最终会有几家优秀的公司存活下来这是毋庸置疑的。不过这些活下来的公司必须具备三个内部和外部的因素联合作用:

a) 自身管理效率的提升,简单的说就是内部精细化运营,成本控制,人员单产要提升。

b) 市场的整合和商户理性回归,这个会有希望提升毛利率,对于月销售额几个亿的团购网站,提高一个点就是上千万。

c) 还有一个不可控的外部因素,就是电子商务的流量采购成本下降,这个成本下降一个点也是上千万。记得11年峰值的时候,24券一个月都需要投放1500万人民币用于媒体投放和流量采购。那个时候媒体的成本每个月都不一样,大量的电商互相竞争流量资源,最终赚钱的都是百度,分众和360等。

4. 为什么O2O行业应该商户第一,用户第二

其实从第一天做团购开始,我们就知道,团购网站是一个中介,供货方是商户,采购方是用户。肯定有人说,按道理传统行业是谁付钱,谁是甲方,谁是第一。传统行业里面是这样,电子商务网站也是这样,谁付款,谁是第一。

而我的看法是,由于团购模式存在商户的一个巨大的折扣和利益让渡,其实相当于是商户在付钱做营销活动。所以看上去团购是用户付钱,那么用户应该是第一;而实际团购这个行为是商户发起,商户让利,商户执行的营销行为,自然也是商户第一了。

当然,这个第一是相对的,并不是说用户不重要,用户的口碑和病毒传播是非常重要的,也是团购最初最有效的扩大销售额的方式。只是说这两者是蝴蝶的两个翅膀,都需要挥动,不过开始挥动第一下翅膀的是商户。真正飞起来之后,两者就同等重要了,因为你永远无法靠一只翅膀飞起来。

所以我相信O2O未来的创业公司,第一个步是要寻找的是找到商户的某个或某几个痛点,并以此建立有忠诚度,长期合作的模式。然后调动用户与商户互动,使得商户可以更加依赖你的服务,这样就一定可以走出一个成功的企业。

5. 商户的需求到底是什么?

归根结底,所有本地服务商户的需求,不外乎两种。

a) 营销类需求

帮助商户获得新的用户,然后按照CPS或者CPM的方式进行收费,基本上是帮助商户解决(增量用户)问题。类似的公司包括:团购网站,点评,优惠券APP等公司和业务。

b) 效率类需求

帮助商户提高服务水平,更好的服务现有的客户,提升现有用户的回头消费,提高ARPU,进而提升商户自身的盈利能力。基本上是帮助商户解决(存量用户)问题。类似的公司包括:会员卡系统公司,餐饮管理软件公司等公司和业务。

所以,未来不论是大公司拓展O2O业务板块,还是新创的O2O的创业公司,一定都会围绕解决这两个需求入手,切入点不同,步骤不同,就会诞生不同的模式。

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