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1月22日,苹果公布了其最新2013年Q1的季报。545亿美元营收创纪录,同比上涨17.7%,净利润也高达130.78亿美元,双双创出新高。说实话,苹果在营收水平、利润能力,以及 iPhone 和 iPad 的出货量上创造了历史新高(4780万部iPhone)。不错的财务报表,按说股价会上涨吧?事实恰恰相反,新季报激发了苹果股价巨幅的连续暴跌,短短几日内苹果市值损失500多亿美金。这是怎么回事儿呢?

对此,小牛请教了一批金融从业者和互联网分析师,却发现大家一致认为苹果财报表现如此很正常。到底是什么原因,让大家一致如此淡定的认为这是个正常的现象?苹果产品的缺乏创新?还是因为和三星的专利战?还是因为iOS的封闭性导致?

欲知更多原因,请查看第63期iDoNews业内人说

听,iDoNews业内人说

(一)苹果Q1财报表现到底如何?

苹果公司第一季度财报差强人意,三星似乎如日中天,2012第四季度净利润增长率达到76%。三星成功在于垂直整合产业链,最大程度降低成本,但三星最大危机可能是三重业务链过于紧密,不利于风险分散,而消费电子行业破坏性创新又是其行业特点,这就是风险。——战略咨询师

本财季苹果的毛利率为38.6%,上年同期的毛利率为44.7%.而上个财季的毛利率为40%。苹果在2012年Q2的毛利率达到最高点47.37%后,就一路下滑,而且下滑的比较快。而苹果公司干脆预计2012年的公司毛利率在37.5%至 38.5%之间。那么苹果的毛利率为什么会出现下滑呢?究其原因,大致可以有如下几种原因:(1)低毛利率产品模型 苹果在2012年9月末发布了iPhone5,并于2012年10月 iPad Mini 。这两款产品目前是苹果最主要的收入来源。这两款产品苹果采用的都是低毛利率产品模型。就是产品的零部件及外包成本增加,但产品价格却并未成比例增长。(2)产品迁移成本 苹果每次在新一代产品发布之前,都会令老版本的产品降价。(3)产品质保成本 去年 iPhone 5 的推出就饱受质疑。产品推出后,出现一系列的问题,如地图,掉漆等。产品出现的一些瑕疵除了令公司品牌受损之外,公司的质保成本自然而然也就增加。而苹果在线服务也偶尔出现一些问题,操作系统也偶尔存在一些BUG。而这些问题明显比以往多起来。苹果的质保成本明显上升了。本季度苹果计提质保成本13.5亿美元,而去年同期质保成本只有8.4亿美元。本季度计提质保成本占收入的2.5%,去年同期质保成本占收入仅为1.8%.(4)汇率影响 由于苹果大部分收入来自美国本土以外的国际市场,而美元持续走强,也令苹果毛利受损。——李云辉(蓝郡咨询董事、iDoNews资深作者)

苹果一季度财报令人失望,引发投资者忧虑“苹果帝国”将会逐步衰落,纷纷抛售苹果股票。目前中国并非只有富士康等代工工厂,不仅是苹果高速增长中的第二大市场,中国也拥有数十家苹果公司的供应链企业,以至形成庞大的苹果概念群。苹果在与中国互相影响的同时,为给中国带来了税收、就业、技术管理等。——肖毅1978(热心网友)

深耕中国苹果一季财报令人失望,引发投资者忧虑“苹果帝国”将会逐步衰落,纷纷抛售苹果股票。高速增长中的第二大市场,中国也拥有数十家苹果公司的供应链企业,以至形成庞大的苹果概念群。苹果在与中国互相影响的同时,还为中国带来了税收就业、技术管理等经验,并非寄生在中国,需要靠中国消费者拯救。——虫口弓东阝(金融从业者)

苹果一季度财报令人失望,引发投资者忧虑“苹果帝国”将会逐步衰落,纷纷抛售苹果股票。目前中国并非只有富士康等代工工厂,不仅是苹果高速增长中的第二大市场,中国也拥有数十家苹果公司的供应链企业,以至形成庞大的苹果概念群。——云帆-修冠华(热心iDoNews网友)

(二)Q1财报表现不佳,股价下跌其实是正常现象?

苹果财报出股价跌,各种口水家又开始肆意挥洒了。看似深刻实则狗屎的观点,什么苹果重复老路,别人在打造互联网商圈。拜托苹果本来就是一家以设计见长的传统企业,有 AppStore/iTunes 这个怪物已经是最大的意外了,还能指望什么?跨行业是那么简单有钱就能干的么?要这样这世界早就全是老牌跨国公司的了。——hog哥哥(金融从业者)

从日前发布的苹果2013年一季度财报来看,虽然实现了营收545.12亿美元,但因为这个值低于分析师的预期,所以苹果股价仍然保持了之前持续下跌的势头。甚至有媒体称,“华尔街断言,苹果难逃一劫”。从财报上可以看到,“iPhone 销售额占到苹果总营收的56.2%”,所以苹果存在着一个对 iPhone 产品过度依赖的问题。而从消费者当前的反映不难推断,5在 iPhone 的序列中已是强弩之末,因此苹果的未来成长空间实堪忧虑。苹果就象是一种传染病,而乔布斯则是这种传染病的病原体,乔布斯的创新确实与众不同,就象是病原体的不断变异,没有章法可循,也没有所谓的创新方法可以复制。今天,苹果到了库克时代,离开了乔布斯这个可以不断变异的病原体,“苹果传染病”的感染能力已经显得岌岌可危。在这样的前提下,我们看到,与不惜代价引入4和4S相比,对于 iPhone 5 的引入,运营商已经冷静了很多。平板电脑领域,微软作为曾经的开拓者正在回归,一旦 Surface 非RT版上市,对 iPad 的冲击将是难以估量的,至少我自己已经翘首以待。而在手机领域,摆在 iPhone 面前的,是诸多国内手机厂商的强势崛起。同时,既然苹果选择不把鸡蛋放在联通这一个篮子里,营运商们反过来也一样做法。果粉总以为平板电脑和智能手机是由苹果一统天下——错了,只有乔布斯的苹果才能够一统天下。要知道,没有人会像膜拜乔布斯一样膜拜库克。面对越来越多越来越好的产品选择,这个“超级市场”也许很快将是他人的舞台,而不会继续为缺乏创新的库氏苹果所保留。到那个时候,还有谁会继续补贴苹果呢?——瞬雨(知名IT评论人、iDoNews著名作者)

之前都说美国经济复苏不错,而周三晚上公布的美国四季度GDP初值却是萎缩的,有点小诧异。但从之前苹果这样的优质企业财报不佳或已经能印证了。有意思的是美国道琼斯指数不紧不慢来到13950附近了,其历史高点才14198啊。这样差的GDP还不跌,难到冲击新高?或是因为预期美联储会议进一步宽松?——henrychen55(金融分析师)

(三)分析师谈Q1财报表现不佳的原因

为什么苹果Q1财报表现不佳,遭到投资者看空?原因是苹果高增长态势已不复存在,而且竞争对手已做大,难以遏制。苹果是引领创新的公司,却并不擅长长期保持创新,这也与大公司创新不易有关。苹果的问题还并不是创新,而是对自身不符合发展趋势之要素的否定,例如是否一定要付出成本收益不符的时间和金钱去打专利权官司,有更多时候这也被认为是在压制创新。任何大公司都做不好这一点。同时这次财报对中国区的情况影响复杂了,如全力投入此处必将成为苹果的恶梦,中国有世界最大的市场,也有发展最快的产业,例如华为已是世界第三大智能手机生产商。苹果自身属性并不适合中国市场。这次的财报对苹果是个拐点,高增长已结束,接下来就是利润率趋于平均水平,没有革命性创新,股价是回不去了。——葛甲(互联网分析师、iDoNews资深作者)

股价更多的透支的是投资者对于苹果未来不确定的预期,一方面:iPhone、iPad 系列靠产品升级,用户已经视觉疲劳,很难再有想象的空间了,甚至会出现产品之间互相侵蚀市场的可能;在经过前一段的疯狂,iPhone 系列几乎成了街机,不再有昔日高档尊贵的形象。另一方面:在经过硬件革命、重新定义手机后,苹果需要迫切变现的是,依托 iOS 构建的生态圈,把自己转变为互联网服务公司,苹果目前APP收入十亿美元左右,但服务收入的比重还不够大,且互联网先天不如谷歌的安卓系。如果考互联网服务挣钱就必须有更广大的用户基数,这就意味着必须放弃高价位,以低价去争夺市场份额,所以虽然苹果已经辟谣,但在中国市场发布廉价屌丝版 iPhone 的可能性还是比较大的。中国市场对于苹果,一方面是为苹果提供供应链,更大的一个方面,会通过分期付款、现货抢购、低价低利等手段扩大苹果的市场份额,中国消费群体庞大,对于苹果实现从IT公司到互联网服务的转变,会有极大的便利。IT公司到互联网服务、生态系统的可持续盈利,这个过程会比较漫长,Q1苹果的股价不会有太大的改善。比较之下,谷歌、亚马逊给与投资者的想象力更多一些,因此,说2013年是谷歌年,是有道理的。——谢言俊(元器件交易网总编辑)

新季报激发了苹果股价巨幅的连续暴跌,短短几日内苹果市值损失500多亿美金。什么原因?1.收入和利润增长速度低于预期。2.创新的驱动力在减弱 盈利模式有变化苗头。3.Mac PC业务下行,售价却上行。4.尽管市场下滑,Mac PC 售价却远远高于市场平均价格。5.来自 iPhone 和 iPad 的内部蚕食冲击。6.供应不顺已影响上市发布。——刘来(联想产品集团高级研究经理)

(四)产品缺乏创新才是根本原因?

苹果最新财报异常疲软,产品缺乏创新是因素之一,另外大中华区也拖了后腿,尤其是运营商降低对苹果的补贴,更令苹果雪上加霜。现在运营商聪明了,不把鸡蛋放一个篮子里,与其给苹果作嫁衣裳,不如支持一下国产!——王易见(著名IT评论家)

缺乏创新,iPhone 5只是拉长了事,为商业利益不采用最好的技术,iPad Mini不采用Retina屏幕,傲慢自以为是,藐视市场和消费者意愿,不推出大屏幕的 iPhone,用专利打压对手损害消费者利益,和三星的专利诉讼,产品质量下降,垃圾般的地图软件,iPhone 5的WIFI故障等等,都是苹果被消费者投资人抛弃的原因。——忐忑的北极熊(热心iDoNews网友)

注重产品是所以企业都绕不过的话题。实际上,苹果的模式也是基于产品的服务整合模式。股价看跌,我认为,可能更多的是投资者看到苹果股价虚高。在这一点上,谷歌似乎做得不错!——詹杨丽华(南友联信息技术有限公司运营总监)

库克只会迎合客户,而乔布斯都是“去你妈的客户”。iPhone 5的创新乏力,iOS 6滥竽充数的苹果地图,和iPad Mini粗制滥造的屏幕…表明苹果已经失去了对完美的极致追求——这正是乔布斯取胜的原因。“无论产品大小,做到当下的最好”的乔布斯时代的苹果公司已经不复存在了。——慕容N(互联网爱好者)

(五)库克该如何把握苹果的未来?

乔布斯的意外去世给库克留下了三个问题:一是苹果公司如何从一家IT公司转型成为互联网公司。不错,目前的苹果仍然是一家线下公司,苹果还没有足够的网感,从快速进化的互联网中去获得更多的创新资源。二是如何保持轻资产公司的风格,而避免成为重资产公司。苹果公司内部对代表着“服务扁平化”的 Siri 一直持保留态度,“Project Glass”是由 Google 推出而不是苹果,长方形的 iPhone 5等等,苹果应该做得更好,一直保持酷基因。三是坚持苹果的产品美学和产品哲学。苹果的产品会让人不假思索的喜欢,对产品细节的重视和禅宗的精神让苹果产品与众不同。另一方面,“在乔布斯时代,苹果会选择最佳时机发布新品,而目前则是以固定时间表驱动来推出新品。” 苹果地图和 Siri 都是复杂产品,在固定时间推出新品的文化下,Siri 和苹果地图还是“半成品”就已经上市了,这在乔布斯时代是不会出现的。乔布斯就像是一个麻瓜世界的魔法师,在他的时代极力追求一种颠覆式创新,改变了人们分享音乐和使用移动终端的习惯。在落魄地离开苹果公司的那个时期,乔布斯从皮克斯动画公司吸收了充分的营养,因此变得更富创造力和灵性。而库克开始按照一个传统的制造业公司来管理苹果,其中一个例子是 iPad3 在用户手中还没有捂热,升级不充分的 iPad 4 又要上市了。这样极大地伤害用户对苹果产品的忠诚度,而苹果却像是停摆了,伤害了用户却一笑而过。但是,这里不想完全去指责库克,正如前面提到的,苹果公司是一个非常复杂的系统,乔布斯则是缔造这家公司公认的天才。当苹果从天空跌向凡尘,目前仍有很多粉丝对苹果充满期待。库克应该知道,现金流不是最重要的,现金流根本不是什么护城河,而只是一些数字。苹果要么满血复活,要么什么都不是。这是伟大公司的一种宿命。——林海(电商观察者、iDoNews资深作者)

苹果的未来在于从现在的产品盈利模式转变为服务盈利模式,从IT公司转变为互联网公司。所以一个可能的办法是放弃硬件的高价位,以低价低利去争夺市场份额,然后通过服务盈利。亚马逊在这方面走得更快。——谢文(知名IT评论人)


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