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昨日,新浪发布 2012 年第四季度及全年财报,财报显示新浪第四季度净营收 1.391 亿美元,同比增长 4%,净利润 240 万美元,同比降低 74.2%,全年营收 5.293 亿美元,同比增长 10%,净利润为 3170 万美元。

新浪微博无疑是本次财报的重中之重,截止 2012 年 12 月 31 日,新浪微博的注册用户增长 73%,达到 5.03 亿,2012 年 12 月份日平均活跃用户数增至 4620 万,同比增长 82%,全年微博营收 6600 万美元,其中 77% 来自广告收入,23% 来自微博增值服务。

财报发布后,新浪 CEO 曹国伟对财报进行了解读,除了常规分析外,他还带来了一个重要消息:微博日活跃用户平均时间略微下降,属于微博高速发展以来的首次。

这是微博发展面临瓶颈的关键证据,曹国伟透露的更多数据显示,微博活跃度环比仅增长 9%,比三季度的环比增长率低,微博广告营收环比增幅缩小,这些都是微博走向成熟期的重要信号。

新浪微博在经历长期的一家独大之后,终于要撞到自身的临界点,逐渐进入平稳期,而另一边,微博受到的财务压力逐渐增大,2012 年微博总成本高达 1.6 亿美元,净亏达 9300 万美元。微博如何扩大收入成为新浪公司当前最迫切的任务。

微博商业化以广告为主

新浪一直在加速微博的商业化,从 2012 年第二季度开始,新浪微博开始通过广告和微博增值服务(如游戏、收入共享和付费会员服务)对微博进行变现。

目前,微博共计为新浪贡献了约 6600 万美元的营收,其中 77% 来自广告收入,23% 来自微博增值服务,广告依旧占据大头,曹国伟预计,今年二季度广告价格将上涨。

对于微博商业化,曹国伟曾称有六大模式:互动精准广告、社交游戏、实时搜索、无限增值服务、电子商务平台,以及数字内容收费。从去年的表现看,在曹国伟提到的六个模式当中,只有广告完成的不错。

但广告对于用户体验的蚕食有目共睹,新浪在试水微博广告时频频遭到诟病,比如信息流强行插入微博广告,信息流置顶微博,顶部 Banner,这些都颇具争议性,无奈的是,这种情况在短期内无法改观,曹国伟在财报中称,2013 年上半年,新浪微博的广告收入仍将主要由展示广告贡献。

而更精准的广告系统——客户自主服务广告系统,要到今年下半年才能见到成效,据悉,这一系统将充分利用大数据,可改善目前广告的匹配度以及用户体验,遵循长尾理论。曹国伟称之为非常重要的广告形式。

而在其他几块收入模式中,微博尝试很多,但收效甚微,会员增值服务,电子商务平台并没有引起很大的反响,微博的商业化之路还很漫长。从企业基因来看,新浪运营用户的能力十分薄弱。

谈微信的竞争

在这次财报中,微博使用时间首次出现下降令人意外,2012 年,业界呼声很高的论调“微信冲击微博”,终于出现了事实的论证,在财报会议上,分析师有针对性的提到这一问题,曹国伟进行了正面回答:

随着各种移动应用越来越多,人们的时间会被转移,这方面的竞争越来越激烈,这是不可避免的。不过就目前来看我们还没受到太多影响,但我们也很清楚我们将不得不努力去将用户的时间抢回来。这方面的竞争主要是来自移动终端的移动应用们,特别是智能手机端的,所以我们将会在移动端投入更多,把移动端放在第一位。

曹国伟口中的“各种移动应用”,微信毫无疑问首当其冲。曹国伟声称要抢回用户的时间,但微信在核心业务上对微博的掠夺,恐怕也是导致用户停留时间下降的因素,微信在去年 8 月份上线的微信公众平台,极大的加强了自身的媒体属性,产品形态深入了微博的腹地,受到了用户的欢迎,也由此导致唱衰微博者众。

微信相比微博优势很明显,深耕在熟人社交体系中,拥有更好的用户粘性,公众平台广告精准度高,用户体验更好。不过倘若就此轻视微博过于偏激,毕竟两者的业务本质还是有区别的,长远来看,微博在信息流通上的价值仍然无可匹敌,这是微博的核心价值,是一道坚实的壁垒。

此外,微博经历了 3 年多的发展,积累了海量的用户数据,涉及用户的生活、工作、娱乐、餐饮、旅游等方方面面,如果加以利用,将是一座金矿。只不过,新浪似乎还没能找到合适的人才来挖掘大数据,新加盟的 CTO 许良杰或许能弥补新浪在技术上的不足。

总之,2013 年对于微博来说,良性的发展是首要目标,然后才是顺滑的商业化,否则过多的侵蚀用户体验注定会自毁长城。

作者:王超文


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