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文/DoNews认证作者 极客公园

私密社交最近很火,你认为目前谁是中国最大的私密社交?

新浪的密友?阿里巴巴的湖畔?开心网的美刻?金山系的画说,还是点滴,小恩爱,暖暖?

如同O2O是个伪概念,QQ,QMM,豆瓣,线上认识,线下成交,这就是O2O。

所谓私密社交亦早已有之。早在08,09年间,在一个不知名的岛国就“诞生”了全球最大的中文私密社交网络——答案就是QQ:隐身挂Q+『隐身对其可见』+『屏蔽此人消息』+『好友上线提醒』+『在线对其隐身』=私密社交。

什么是私密社交网络?

私密社交是新概念吗?

一切人类为寻求发展,繁衍后代的社会行为通常为社交;帮助人类进行社交的网络服务统称为社交网络,例如熟悉的中国移动,QQ,微博,飞信,人人…..

私密社交不是什么新概念,熟人之间的社交活动,统称为私密社交。

私密社交自古有之,走亲访友,过年串亲戚,都是私密社交。

私密社交和泛社交是独立的吗?

不是,私密社交存在于泛社交之中。人脑的构成决定了每个人都可以清楚的定位自己的私密社交与泛社交(通常所说的和某某关系好,和某某关系一般)。

用户会为了区分泛社交与私密社交而选用不同的社交网络吗?

国外确实有这样的先例,如Path,Between,Pair……

国内也有,比如商务人士区分手机工作号,私人号;QQ工作号,私人号。不过,普通用户人为隔离自己的社交网络是极其稀罕的,多数草根用户想多认识两个人还来不及。人为隔离社交场景就好像双卡双待一样是极其小众的需求。商务人士可以用黑莓,苹果,或者两三个手机换着用。双卡双待又低端(多数是山寨机),又容易出现太多误操作用私人号发给工作上的同事类问题。

更严重的是,国内互联网用户结构,根据莫尔的传播曲线,后知后觉者(草根大众)是国内互联网的主流。想做私密社交,先看看你的用户在哪里?

为什么说腾讯才有资格谈私密社交?

在驳 QQ 圈子打破顿巴魔咒的《顿巴是大脑极限,不是什么技术极限》一文中,已经分析说明,动物的记忆通道容量极限(精力有限)已经决定了只能跟少数个体形成亲密关系,跟一部分个体形成强关系。QQ 圈子是个反生理,反人类,反社会的 YY 产品。

同理,即便是高级动物的人,不管是亲人,夫妻,朋友,只要是熟人,强关系联系,就会有“私密”社交的需求。

至于社交首先要解决通信问题。于是,QQ 靠着长年累月的轻关系沉淀积累,部分弱关系强化成强关系,陌生人变成朋友;同学朋友亲人强关系粘着增值。

隐身就是掌握了通信的主动权,『隐身对其可见』强化了私密社交的粘度,『在线对其隐身』降低了泛社交的骚扰。加之,微信朋友圈,手机私密社交的战略布局。腾讯,当之无愧,坐拥私密社交第一把交椅。

腾讯有没有短板?有,至少潜在三个危机:

隐私过滤不严:微信好友全能看到好友圈的动态,全公开了何来私密之说?

概念不清:本来用微信就是想清静一下,又推送公众营销。我关注了腾讯微博,新浪微博被骚扰的还不够,还要再忍受一次?单向关注了QQ,微博,微信,该闹哪样?

我到底该用QQ,朋友网,QQ空间,腾讯微博,还是微信?过多的同质化选择造成了普通用户的选择障碍;

安全问题:昵称可以重名,各种微信账号,二维码分享的诱导。造成了社会工程学漏洞,笔者曾经把头像换成某2线明星,打开LBS,瞬间招来一堆女粉丝(当然,米聊,陌陌也有同样问题,其中不乏夜店,KTV,酒吧在线营销),由此会滋生很多诈骗问题。

谁有机会瓜分私密社交市场?

目前看来有且仅有三家公司,分别是中国移动的飞聊,千橡的人人,新浪的微友:

飞信仅靠免费发短信就抢占了IM 4.2%的市场份额,如果不在3G时代错失大批投奔186的种子用户,早已翻身。移动飞信飞聊跨运营商免费短信,加上强有力的运营,社交市场有的一拼;

人人网的同学强关系,抢占私密社交毋庸置疑;

新浪的微友借微博火热之势,假以时日,大有可为。前提改善当前的诸多弊端,如多客户端,到底是用微友,还是密友,而且自己的隐私控制之差比微信有过之而无不及。诸如,注册密友自动发一条微博:

“有木有觉得在微博上不敢吐槽工作,不能宣泄情感,就连关心朋友都力不从心,本以为通过微博连接了世界,没想到却与最亲密的人愈发疏远……如果你真的关心我,就加我密友吧!我正在使用由新浪微博官方推出的密友手机客户端,赶快来一起玩”

这就好比设置某人『在线对其隐身』之后在QQ群自动发条信息:某某对你设置了在线隐身。

私信,短消息,短信本身就是强关系应用,只有强关系链的熟人才会有这些需求。

所以,拥有强关系链才有资格谈私密社交;普通用户,不会单独找一款软件去谈什么私密社交。

不管是垂直论坛,新鲜社区,还是邂逅,抑或是提供帮助,回答问题之后想进一步发展都会问“有Q吗?”

这也就解释了为何大批量的移动社交服务都要强制用户导入手机联系人(自己没有强关系链,没底气)。不然用户就会像去了一趟百度知道,问了一个问题,得到答案就开溜了。不发发邮件,发发短信,用户怎么会想到用你的应用社交?

结语:

时光流,脚印,登登,双双,阿猫阿狗LBS,哪里来的自信会比360(口信)更懂小白,会凝聚更强大的品牌忠诚度?

是的,谁都可以导入手机通讯录。不过在电信运营商的长年洗礼下,怎么让用户相信你那不是诈骗信息?

Path会成为极客的玩具。

至于陌陌类位置交友,这种是“一次性”关系。想在手机端,借助SOLOMO,lbs,移动互联网大热的浪潮重复QQ的历史,必须要忍受得住寂寞,熬过一个个寒冬,等待弱关系长熟,发展为强关系。

什么是创业?如果你敢向自己承诺,愿意拿出人生最黄金的十年、十五年,甚至更长时间,决定玩这个游戏,愿意损失生活乐趣,甚至可能付出健康,这就是创业。艺术、文学、经济、政治,都是创业的舞台,它适合于任何不甘平庸、愿意承担风险的人,愿意为他人创造价值的人。对,奥巴马也是创业者。

——周鸿祎

想沾沾移动互联网的喜气,准备一两年用户量就达到XX,真的可以洗洗睡了。

======带个自私自利的小AD=========

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