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关于支付宝新推出的“余额宝”业务,引发了很多关于互联网金融的争论。糟糕的是,由于广大人民群众对于基础金融知识的匮乏,使得很多争论和猜想完全没有意义。在涉及江南愤青的大部分争论里,个人感觉一半以上都是因为缺乏基础金融知识的“鸡同鸭讲”。所以,让我们暂时放下互联网金融之类高深莫测的大旗,回到最基础的金融知识,看看“余额宝”到底是什么、哪来的高收益以及普通人该不该用这个新东西。

一、“余额宝”的功能和原理

银行账户上活期存款的利息很低,只有0.35%。但是支付宝账户里的钱利息更低,是零,因为支付宝不是银行,金融监管政策不允许支付宝给账户上的钱发利息。于是,支付宝公司就金融创新了一把,推出了基于支付宝账户的“余额宝”功能。支付宝账户上的钱跟原来一样,可以随时消费和转账,但是没有利息。可一旦把钱从支付宝账户转到“余额宝”,支付宝公司就自动帮你把钱买成名为“天弘增利宝货币”的货币基金,这样一来你在“余额宝”里的钱就可以得到货币基金的收益,同时支付宝还允许你直接用“余额宝”里的钱进行消费(个人测试结果是不支持转账和还信用卡,如有错误请指正)。

所以,直接用“余额宝”和银行活期存款比较是不合适的。“余额宝”的收益不是利息,而是货币基金的收益——尽管货币基金的风险很低,但还是要比法定付息的存款风险要高。而对于银行账户来说,如果你不把钱放在活期账户上,而是通过银行买了货币基金,同样可以获得类似“余额宝”收益,只不过这个货币基金里的钱需要换成银行账户里的活期存款才能花。

个人认为,“余额宝”是在“卖”货币基金的流程上进行了小小的创新。在买货币基金的过程中,“余额宝”和银行账户都是一样的,你今天确定要买,不是立刻就能把钱换成货币基金,而是需要隔一个工作日(假期不算的哟),并且这个“买”的过程里没有收益。银行账户“卖”和“买”的过程类似,确定卖之后,隔一个工作日你才能拿到钱。而“余额宝”除了相同的“卖”,还可以选择直接在淘宝和天猫里消费。也就是说,你不把“余额宝”里的货币基金变成现金,也可以直接在淘宝天猫上花。

那么,“余额宝”是不是可以秒杀银行账户呢?当然不是。可为什么现在的相关讨论乱成一团呢?是因为讨论没有建立在相同的知识平台上。钱这个东西很特殊,需要从很多角度一起去判断,不能只根据收益高不高就下结论。所以我们引入以下的的标准

二、判断标准:流动性、收益性和安全性

当我们讨论金融工具或金融资产,维度永远是三个:流动性、收益性和安全性。我可以负责任的说,任何脱离这三个维度讨论金融工具优劣的行为,都是耍流氓。为了方便讨论,我们把安全性留到最后,先假设“余额宝”的安全性和银行存款相同,只考虑的两者的流动性与收益性。

流动性,就是钱花的时候方便不方便;收益性,就是钱放在那里不动能拿到多少收益——两者显然都是越高越好。对于A和B两种金融工具,如果A的流动性和收益性都比B更高,那么显然A比B更好,应当让A来淘汰B。但是,如果A和B一个流动性高、另一个收益性高,我们就没法说一个比另一个更好,只能认为这两者是用来满足不同需求的金融工具,都好。

现在我们根据以上原则比较“余额宝”和银行账户——更准确的说,比较的是支持“余额宝”的支付宝账户和支持购买货币基金的银行账户。

在基础账户收益性方面,放在支付宝里的钱利率是零,低于银行账户0.35%的活期利率——银行账户胜出。

在购买货币基金的流程方面,“余额宝”和银行账户都需要一个工作日才能把钱换成货币基金,也都不收手续费——两者平手。

在货币基金收益方面的情况比较复杂。以截至6月17日的近6个月收益率排队(全部换算为可比的年化收益率),排名第一的“南方现金增利货币”为4.08%,排名第98位的“汇丰晋信货币A”仅为2.46%。“余额宝”购买的“天弘增利宝货币”刚刚成立,只有短期的7日年化收益率为3.48%,可以算是中游水平。虽然通过银行账户买货币基金可选择的范围更大,但毕竟选择也是成本,而且咱们也未必能选上那些未来收益表现更好的货币基金,因此还是判定两者平手。

最后,在卖出和使用货币基金时,才是“余额宝”胜出的地方。对于银行账户上的货币基金,只有一部分支持赎回立刻到账,而且你必须等钱从货币基金回到银行账户上之后才能使用。相比之下,“余额宝”不仅可以直接把货币基金换成支付宝里可以自由使用的钱(待验证),还可以直接用“余额宝”里的货币基金进行消费——显然是“余额宝”胜出。

由以上分析可见,“余额宝”其实并不是一个帮助你提高理财收益的工具,而是一个让你更方便地花掉自己货币基金的工具。同时,由于“余额宝”的支付被限定在消费领域,并不支持还信用卡还款和银行卡转账,因此你仍然需要在手里保持一部分现金和一部分银行账户里的活期存款。也就是说,如果你使用“余额宝”之后会有更多的收益,也是牺牲流动性换来的,支持“余额宝”的支付宝既不能完全代替银行账户,也不能全方位胜出银行账户。

而且,别忘了我们还没有加上安全性哟。尽管支付宝和基金公司可以把风险控制做的很好,但归根到底,只有银行存款的风险才可以认为是零。银行需要为你的存款付利息是法律规定的。不存在讨价还价的余地,即便第二天银行要关门,也得先把利息结清才能清算剩下的财产。相比之下,货币基金付给你的是收益,并没有法律规定货币基金不能亏本或必须给你多高的收益,以前很多年没出事不代表未来不会出事。开个互联网的玩笑,这种对货币基金的信心,有点像对中国移动短信业务的信心——倒不倒霉和历史经验无关,只和微信什么时候横空出世有关。

三、“余额宝”用还是不用?

对于看热闹的从业人员,当然可以继续沿着“金融创新”或“互联网金融”的光辉大道继续讨论。我认为支付宝这次干的很漂亮,不管创新是多么微小、多么似曾相识,为客户提供更多的选择总不是一件坏事。差不多所有的金融学教科书讲到金融创新的时候,都会提到一个70年代在美国诞生的“NOW账户”。现在看来,这个“NOW账户”真是平淡无奇,不过是面对支票账户不允许付利息的美国政策,银行钻空子让客户既能方便开支票、又能拿上存款利息罢了。然而就是这么一个小小的举措成为了金融创新历史的经典案例。谁知道现在的“余额宝”会不会就是另一场大变革的开端呢?

当然了,与正经八百的金融创新“NOW账户”相比,“余额宝”很难说是彻底的金融创新。“NOW账户”在不降低支票账户流动性的前提下,成功提高了支票账户的收益性。相比之下,“余额宝”虽然同样提高了收益性,但也付出了降低流动性的代价——只不过借助阿里系的优势让流动性降低的较少。

可是,新闻说的再热闹,广大普通的消费者一点也不关心什么创新或变革,只需要明确自己到底该怎么做。我傻傻地认为,媒体有义务从个体消费者的角度进行分析,不能整天想着为行业巨头摇旗呐喊。在这次“余额宝”的宣传中,我不知道究竟阿里系是不是故意混淆了利息和货币基金的差别,但我可以肯定这种错误的比较对“余额宝”大大的有利。

作为一个正在学习理财知识的菜鸟,我的观点是:普通人根本没必要使用“余额宝”。站在普通消费者的立场,如果你本来就没有把钱充到支付宝上的习惯、短期内大可不必关心“余额宝”这个东西,按照之前的习惯继续下去就好了。

具体来说,对于普通用户而言有以下两点建议:

一是别把“余额宝”当成理财工具用。

如前分析,“余额宝”这东西不是帮你提高收益的,而是帮你更方便花掉自己的货币基金去买东西——恰好还是在阿里系旗下的淘宝和天猫买东西。如果真的很在意活期存款利率太低,应当在存钱和降低现金比例这方面下功夫,而不是琢磨怎么能让要在淘宝天猫买东西的钱有点利息。更何况,具体到消费这个职能,显然是信用卡更有诚意——信用卡是掏出真金白银先借你买东西,“余额宝”只是让你方便地花掉自己的货币基金。在个人理财时,冲动消费永远是最大的敌人。除了信用卡,为冲动消费服务的金融工具都应该砍掉,然后专心致志地在信用卡上跟自己的消费欲望作斗争。

二是别以为“余额宝”跟存款一样没风险。

这款产品太新了,新到对应的货币基金只能查到14日的年化收益率,并且还是来自一家规模很小的基金公司。又没有什么特别巨大的好处,干嘛跑去给阿里系和天弘基金当小白鼠呢?从货币基金的运营看,如果这个货币基金只靠支付宝来募集资金,应对流动性的困难会非常多。现在的年化收益率3.48%能保持一年吗?要是不幸垫了底,只有排名98位的2.46%收益率,是不是又该大力宣传“银行大战支付宝,支付宝资金改用一年期存款收益立刻提升21.95%”?(一年期定期存款利率3%,较2.46%高21.95)


534条评论

  1. 我只能说,楼主的最后两条结论简直就是扯淡。

    余额宝把活期存款的利息提高到理财的利息,盘活了支付宝的钱,给用户带来收益,给自己带来收益,给银行带来压力。
    这和刺激消费有什么关系,现在支付宝已经不仅仅是天猫淘宝了,覆盖水电煤,充值,神马各种业务。

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  3. 支付宝的这种模式究竟是合法还是非法?

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