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2012年地球末日没有来临,垂直电商的末日似乎逼近,此起彼伏的收购与要约收购,让垂直电商这个领域阴云密布,垂直电商似乎已经没有存在的必要,这一点是最可怕的,因为我们可以抵挡低谷,却无法阻碍绝望。

团购盈利的时机启示

先不提垂直的B2C电商,说一说团购的事情,团购勉强也算是一个O2O的垂直电商。当窝窝团传出盈利的消息的时候,实在还是让人有一点吃惊的,这个曾经火爆到炙手可热,又瞬间跌落低谷的商业模式,实在是前年电商市场上最大的亮点。而目前美团的月营业额已经逼近七亿,也宣称已经看到了盈利的节点。这对我有了很大的启示,也就是时机的重要性。

电商的火爆和这一轮经济的通货膨胀是分不开的,膨胀的结果就是货币超发,流动性溢出,带来的产品涨价和购物繁荣形成了相互促进的作用,在这个大前提下,电商市场获得了非常长足而且火爆的增长,在市场绝对大的时候,也就是台风来了的时候,猪都会飞上天。似乎不太有技术含量的电商,通过不太有技术含量的流量购买,也可以活的蛮滋润的,就算是前期一直亏钱毛利率极低的团购,也存在少数销售不错的小网站盈利颇丰。这一点麻痹了很多人,大家没有看到经济的主推作用,只觉得是自己有本事。

团购火爆的时候,大团没人盈利,都是巨亏。等死的七七八八,只有几家的时候,当年我预计的挤出效应开始显现,各大倒下的团购用户开始向几家巨头靠拢,因为产品的品质更可靠,重要的是不会出现卷款跑路的情况。而优质商家在经历了一波波不靠谱的洗礼之后,同样开始选择相对靠谱的巨头。于是这个市场开始稳定,也就逐步看到了盈利的曙光。当然,虽然盈利了,但上市的希望还是比较暗淡,毕竟高增长已经不太可能,这个模式的预期已经被看透了。

垂直电商的问题和团购趋同,在火爆阶段,光卖鞋子的垂直电商就有好乐买、乐淘、名鞋库等多家,衣服更是数不胜数,从t恤到袜子各种垂直琳琅满目。每个人都抢占一个细分的领域做品牌,在前期看是满足了一部分特殊需要的人,而从长期来看,这个市场的容量实在是有限的。出于对增长的压力,要不断的通过流量购买来扩张,而对产业链和物流的深耕却没有精力顾及,最后出现的结果就是同质化。在电商火爆的时代,这种同质化的问题被忽略了,而在寒冬来临之际,消费者逐步集中到服务更好的大平台进行一站式的消费,垂直电商就陷入了困境之中,而且没有什么好的改良办法。

所以行业火爆的时候是看不出水平的,大潮退去的时候,终于看到谁在裸泳,垂直电商当年的风风火火逐步随着各家的出售和倒闭告一段落。剩下的问题就和团购当年的问题一样了,这个东西,到底有没有存在的价值?

垂直电商的意义

垂直电商的意义还是在于领域的专业化,比如典型的京东的3c、当当的卖书,红孩子的母婴,凡客的服装等。最后的分水岭则是各自尝试平台化之后,成功的一下子成功了,失败的开始陷入泥沼。这里京东的成功应该和其之前3C主业有很大关系,因为大家电的客单价比较高,服务要求也比较高,用户的信任度就比较高。而卖书或者t恤这样的产品,客单价本身就比较低,用户的质量和信任度也比较差,基本上是基于价格敏感的用户,而很难培养出忠诚度和信赖感。

所以垂直电商的意义还是在于某些领域的专业服务,但目前看来,大家都很垂,却不太直,流量上去了就一门子想着扩张类目、平台化经营。但是因为同质化的问题,导致了可替代性非常强,所以领头羊只要开一个类目的垂直频道,就可以把这些垂直网站的客户挖走一大块。毕竟按照中国人的习惯,总是喜欢在一个地方把产品买全了,而不喜欢到各个网站下单,据研究,潜意识的原因是希望一次把货都收到。

当你的产品和服务可替代性非常强的时候,被大平台挤掉也就是顺理成章的事情。换句话说,垂直电商第一市场是有限的,存在类目的天花板,另一方面,标准化程度高的产品存在大平台电商的挤压。在繁荣盛世的时候,这个差别不太明显,而到了萧条时期,很快就能感觉到流量断崖式的下跌。在业绩和增长压力之下,扩张类目似乎成了必由之路,而却很少有人选择另一条深挖垂直的道路,这一点不能不说是一个中国式急功近利悲哀,当然,这也是资本逼得,可以理解,却无法原谅。

垂直电商的困境就在于此,比如凡客后来卖什么水壶、项链的,库存的一塌糊涂。实际上,弱化了品牌,降低了专业度。而你专业度提升,自然人群也就局限了,量上不去,价格也就未必有优势,总体还是流失的局面。我曾经建议一家做玩具的电商,从专家的角度切入,以打包的形式分阶段提供0-18岁的玩具,从而形成一个快消行业家庭装的作用(家庭装比较便宜,而购买的人可能会用相当长的时间,这样就会减少竞品的购买)以提高粘度增加专业性以及降低标准化。这应该是一个垂直电商的标准打法,但目前的垂直电商都是按照传统平台电商一样的打法去拼资源买流量,基本没什么特别的,除了品类特别少以外。

再比如红孩子的高速成长被誉为当年的奇迹,但我个人认为这和三鹿事件后的余波有极大关联,当三鹿事件影响的适龄夫妇都已经过了婚育阶段,剩下的人可能就不太买这个帐了,当然,其他竞争对手的切入也是很重要的原因。毕竟,这个品类的垂直,是一个人生时间段的垂直,而并非是一个综合需求的垂直。换句话说,我买螺丝刀,可能会去垂直网站保证品牌专业和产品全面,综合电商很难做到这一点,比如铁血网的军品一直毛利颇高供销两旺。但我买母婴,牌子就那么多,京东如果有,我大可不必选红孩子。所以,红孩子无奈之下,只好选择被收购,更多的原因还是为了帮助之前的资本退出,其后的发展却很难让人看到什么希望和起色。

垂直电商的未来是非标加品牌

陈年最终把凡客定位为一个品牌,品牌的意义除了区分和溢价之外,还有一个就是非标准。凡客算是垂直电商中供应链掌控最好的,从生产到物流都自建了体系,尽管如风达现在基本被裁掉了。所以,凡客的成功不是没有道理的,凡客的做法也最符合垂直电商应该有的做法。问题只是,这个类目带来的瓶颈无法突破,而不能高增长对于电商来说就是死亡,靠那点可怜的毛利率,想把投资人投的钱赚回来不知道要等猴年马月。而增长速度的不济,则失去了高科技股上市的最起码前提—-成长速度和空间巨大。

京东ceo刘强东说“标准化产品的垂直电商无法长期生存,要么卖掉要么死掉!而非标准个性化电商可以长期生存发展”这个话一半是实话,另一半则偏乐观。电商长期生存发展的前提目前看就是投资人的输血和高速成长,慢下来就是死。而另一种不从投资切入,而从行业切入的电商,却有一点柳暗花明的意思,比如家具类的电商曲美、装修类的电商齐家网以及O2O二维码服务提供商上海翼码等,都在各自领域做出了几十亿的营业额,几乎看不到类似其他电商的那种压力。原因还是因为他们的电商体系建设是基于对行业的深刻理解,而不是技术服务的深刻理解,也许在技术、资本运营上不是特别的出类拔萃,但靠扎实的行业运营树立了一个行业壁垒,让竞争对手很难切入。而另一个好消息则是,这种产品的毛利率很高,比起一般电商,日子过得好很多。

从这个角度而言,目前似乎已经尘埃落定的电商市场,巨头就是那么几家,其他的机会还是在于非标品,而在非标品中做出品牌,则有可能达到电商成功的彼岸,那就是盈利,活的不错,而不是亏着上市去改变世界。

不过非标品的运营是一个苦功夫,和传统的电商打法融资买流量增长再融资有很大不同,后者可能懂技术互联网就可以了,而前者则要深刻的理解行业。这里的一个门槛就是,深刻理解行业的专家如何能再深刻理解互联网。从这个角度而言,互联网对于他们只是一个工具,行业的本质不变,只是销售工具进行了提升,这也让这些领域的电商卖家根基稳健,经得起风浪。

当然,非标品也存在一个比较大的风险就是顾客的认知度信任度建立门槛比较高,流量和转化率的问题会更大一些,因为客户无法比较,所以下单购买的顾虑就会更多,对于品牌建设的需求就更为强烈。而标准品的竞争则相对简单,漂亮的页面便宜的价格高速的快递。而服饰、化妆品之类则属于半非标,既有个性的内容在里面,又有通用的类目和广泛存在的竞品,品牌营销也就更为重要。

剩下的都是英雄

当然,在可以预见的最近一两年,经济的萧条都不可避免,而这种萧条情况下电商的困难也非常之多,像开头说的那样,幸存者的增长往往是来源于倒下者的贡献,市场的自然增长恐怕还是极为有限的。在这种情况下,做垂直电商就更加的困难,以前是人才就可以活下来,现在恐怕要是天才了。

当然,也只有这样的环境才能剩下真正的英雄,如何从自己擅长的行业切入借助互联网工具建立垂直品牌是一个重中之重,从另一个角度而言,上市的机会可能越来越少,但赚钱的人会越来越多,对于行业的健康发展还是非常有利的。

现在苦苦支撑的垂直电商如果有好的机会还是寻求并购更理智一点,因为原来期望的春天,是真的不会来了。

作者:黑马


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