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4月17日,苹果股价自2011年以来首次跌破400美元。今年第一季度,苹果股票是标准普尔500指数(SPX)中表现最差的股票之一。

华尔街正在抛弃苹果。

其根本原因是对苹果的增长与创新不再看好,原因有一些:其关键产品iPhone正在失去竞争优势、毛利率在下跌、库克不是一个有产品远见的CEO、其大量现金找不到出路、苹果即将发布的新一季业绩可能会让人失望……等等。

17日的股价暴跌,直接源于苹果的主要供应商凌云逻辑公司(Cirrus Logic)发布的一份声明,这份声明表示该公司盈利将远低于预期,因此投资者通过推断预期认为,苹果的盈利也将会再次低于预期。

有文章说,该公司在经历了“怎么做都不错”的辉煌十年之后,现在似乎变成了“怎么做都不对”。

资本市场总是这样热得快冷得快。其实,冷静地审视这家公司,至少目前,它仍然是一家伟大公司。

福布斯网站作者Creg Satell拿自己现身说法,认为,任何人要想对苹果有个清醒的看法,就必须考虑到以下三个因素。以下,是他的文章内容:

产品:我已深深融入到苹果的生态系统之中,对他们的产品非常满意。我喜欢自己的iPhone手机、iPad平板电脑,我的Macbook Air笔记本电脑的可靠性比我曾经用过的任何PC都要强得多(我对苹果电视倒没有这么疯狂,不过它工作起来也不错)。对于我而言,苹果产品值得消费者出高价购买,至少目前是如此。

不过,我确实发现自己有点羡慕安卓世界目前的进展。我想要拥有像Google Now之类的语音助理功能,不明白为什么苹果是唯一一家没有推出一款支持NFC(近距离无线通讯技术)产品的主要智能手机制造商。在我看来,他们这样做,等于是在放缓该行业许多创新的步伐。

所以,有时候我会考虑转用其他公司的产品,但我每次这样想的时候,都会想到苹果专卖店及其提供技术服务的“天才吧”(Genius Bar)。通过完全融入到苹果的生态系统之中,我确信自己遇到的任何问题(我确实遇到一个特别讨厌的硬件问题)都会很容易有效而且方便地得到处理。我不想放弃这种感觉。

管理层:乔布斯使得苹果成为一家独特的公司。现在他去世了,苹果显然已经失去了一个先机。

然而,同样重要的是要记住,苹果目前的管理层使得苹果成为一家非常出色的公司。首席执行官蒂姆·库克是一位出色的运营主管,而乔尼·艾夫(Jony Ive)是苹果一系列美妙产品背后的设计天才,正是这些产品促使苹果一跃成为这个星球上市值最高的公司(至少在一段短时间内是如此)。

因此,虽然苹果目前的管理层还没有展示出任何表明他们对未来持有明确愿景的迹象,但他们的才干是不容置疑的。

股票:果的市(信息披露:我通过一只基金间接持有苹果股票)与其曾一度达到的最高市值相比已下跌了40%以上,因为我们没有理由预期该公司在过去实现的增长势头会延续下去,这点已变得很清楚了。这完全是一个正常的市场反应。

然而,苹果的情况有些不同,因为其股价从来没有由于公司业绩增长很快而反映出任何相应的溢价。即使在其股价迅速攀升期间,其股票的估值水平仍低于标普500指数。让苹果股票如此值钱的是其公司的盈利水平,而不是市场的非理性乐观情绪。

因此,虽然我和其他任何人一样对苹果的未来持有怀疑的态度,但市场显然已低估了苹果股票的价值。正如科技博客网站Business Insider的杰伊·亚罗(Jay Yarow)和亨利·布罗吉特(Henry Blodget)所指出的那样,即便假设苹果的利润率出现大幅下滑,而且营收增长为零,其股票仍然是一个相当不错的投资选择。

换句话说,虽然将苹果的未来与其过去和现在进行比较是合理的,但如果与大多数企业进行比较的话,那么苹果仍然是一家卓越的公司,按照市盈率进行比较,其股票目前的估值水平与整体市场相比低40%。

本文作者:Creg Satell,福布斯网站作者


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