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“抢车位”、“偷菜”等曾经一度炙热到每天都能够从媒体新闻上看到的词汇,几乎是在一夜之间就被悄然遗忘。一定要说这是受到社交游戏在中国市场上依附的主流平台开心网的衰落而导致,似乎也不尽然。2011年的时候,《开心农场》的开发和运营商“五分钟”曾与新浪微博联合成立了一家基于新浪微博上的社交游戏平台——即现在的“微游戏”前身,可是后来依然无法吸引到预期目标的用户量,被新浪微博以转股的方式收购为自家产品,最后投向网页游戏联运的结果。

更何况在Facebook还如日中天的情况下,其最大的第三方社交游戏开发商Zynga自IPO上市起就开始上演持续下跌的滑梯趋势,市值从70亿美元一路蒸发到20亿美元,连员工都于2012年对媒体表示不满说“公司欺骗说上市一年后股票会值100美元,现在才3美元!”更糟糕的是,Zynga还在今年关闭了数个工作室,并且开始了预示不详的裁员计划。

除了华尔街,硅谷也不怎么待见社交游戏这种产品,著名科技博客TechCrunch的创始人 Michael Arrington 就公开指责Zynga为了获取用户“不择手段,甚至使用虚假或带有欺诈性质的营销伎俩”,而Zynga的CEO Mark Pincus 在参加苹果全球开发者大会时也曾遭到过全场的嘘声。

最主要的原因还是在于社交游戏的生命周期存在天然的短板——平均只有六个月左右,而这其中通常还包括为了广泛吸收用户而没有设立收费环节的市场宣传期,真正能够拿来盈利的,总计仅有三、四个月。而为了在如此短暂的存活期中扩大用户集群的数量,社交游戏厂商通常会采用“污染用户的信息链”等形式,来鼓励和驱动玩家向其好友不断发出加入游戏的请求,Facebook就曾警告过Zynga,要求后者控制推广信息的生产频率。

在传统游戏的转型过程里,社交游戏更像是一个过渡性的产品,就如同PC电脑在向便携终端转型时,昙花一现的上网本最终只是为平板电脑来铺路一样。Zynga抢得先机上市之后,随着Rovio、PopCap等植根于操作系统而非Web上的游戏公司纷纷发迹,便不再被资本所看好,Zynga的创始人及高管都开始率先抛售所持的公司股票。

社交关系是稳定的,这话是没有错的,一名用户与其好友的关系,会以角色来进行主动分配,“同学”、“同事”、“笔友”、“邻居”等关系带来了用户与用户之间的互动和交流。但是社交游戏的建立逻辑是:基于社交关系上的游戏交互关系,也是稳定的。这话就大有问题了。Zynga在进军移动互联网领域时曾经斥资1.8亿美元收购了iPhone及Adnroid平台上热度最高的《你画我猜》,当时拥有1500万活跃用户,但是不到5个月之后,《你画我猜》就只剩下340万活跃用户,超过75%的用户迁徙到了更新、更流行的游戏上。在这个演变过程里,用户之间的社交关系并没有发生任何颠覆性的变化,但是建立在社交关系之上的应用关系,则并没有受到底层稳固关系的庇护,非常容易遭到改变。

也就是说,除非社交游戏的开发商可以持续不断的造出精品游戏,使用户的迁徙始终维持在品牌领土之内,进行“从左手传递到右手”的循环,否则是无法支撑一个长期的付费规模的。但是,“精品主义”的最大敌人,就是在生命周期上给开发和运营施加压力——想想老是跳票的暴雪就知道了,这又于社交游戏过快的更新频率本质成了一个悖论。

打破——或者说是绕过这个悖论的方法倒也有一条,这是在中国市场上被首先成功实践的:急剧拉升游戏的APRU值。但是这个方法不是被应用在社交游戏上,而是与传统网络游戏模式更加接近的网页游戏。中国的网页游戏市场有着相当独立和自主的一套商业模式,其开发商通常套用同一套游戏系统,仅对画面、剧情和主题做出一定程度的修改,就投放到高流量的网站上开展运营,依靠激发玩家的攀比交互来实现对APRU值的刺激,甚至能够出现一个或一群“土豪玩家”养活一整个服务器的情形。但是社交游戏基本上属于“异步数据”的背景,即它并不要求用户之间发生即时性互动,“偷菜”、“创建城市”等行为都是在自有环境中完成,互动目标可以处于离线状态。这让社交游戏无法继承传统网络游戏以及网页游戏的精髓,也难以制造用户之间的“仇恨”(如PK系统),刺激用户消费的心理因素土壤也全无根基。所以社交游戏的APRU值也都是很低的,Zynga的《Farm Ville》(“偷菜”类游戏的原型)在Facebook上的活跃用户数量在巅峰时期曾经到达过8300万,但是APRU值不到1美元。

为了弥补APRU值的过低,Zynga正在尝试赌博业务的拓展,美国市场研究公司Inside Virtual Goods的调查报告显示,以扑克类为首的赌博游戏盈利能力很强,运作得好的话APRU值可以摸到3美元的门槛,而Zynga也在积极寻找政策的安全区,比如美国内华达州政府有意向将网络赌博合法化,Zynga就很快向内华达州博彩管理委员会(Gaming Control Board)提交了申请文件,希望获得当地的在线赌博游戏运营资质。另外,Zynga也找到了英国最大的网络博彩公司Bwin.Party,与其合作在英国本土推出了现金赌博游戏产品。

只是,这让Zynga本就不太好听的名声变得更臭了。连索尼在线娱乐的总裁John Smedley都站出来说:“免费游戏的用户评价不好,尤其是某些社交游戏,原因到在于是Zynga败坏了这个行业。它们发布的全都是圈钱工具,都没有资格被称为游戏!”

社交游戏还有一项软肋是它缺乏游戏内容上的厚度,这使模仿和抄袭成本被降至了最低。《开心农场》的开发商“五分钟”在倒闭之前曾经在三个月内发起了三场诉讼,全都指向竞争对手抄袭自己的社交游戏产品。但是《开心农场》本身,却就来自“五分钟”对Zynga旗下最受欢迎的游戏产品《Farm Ville》的抄袭。而Zynga推出的新社交游戏《The Ville》,也遭到了EA公司的起诉,指控《The Ville》抄袭了EA的《模拟人生》。这般乱象,全由社交游戏的准入制过低所引起,热门的社交游戏多是换汤不换药,同质化的现象非常严重,除了游戏开发商之间不断的交叉诉讼,用户也极易滋生疲惫、萌生退意。

美国乔治亚理工学院教授、游戏设计师Ian Bogost为了讽刺Zygna等社交游戏的肤浅和苍白,自行制作了一款名为《Cow Clicker》的恶搞式社交游戏,也上传到了Facebook的应用广场供人体验,这个游戏的全部内容就是用户每隔六个小时就要点击一只虚拟的牛,然后获得积分,并分享到Facebook上的好友,等到过了六个小时之后再来点击,周而复始。Ian Bogost不无调侃的说道:“这就是社交游戏的全部创造性。”

换句话说,“社交”可以出于无聊,但是“游戏”绝不能滥用无聊。社交游戏的历史最早或许要追溯到Facebook的诞生之处,扎克伯格因为看到了哈佛学子们“找对象”的心态,而在Facebook上添加了一项名为“动他一下”(Poke)的功能,陌生男女可以暧昧的彼此“动对方一下”,来完成类似打招呼式的交互行为,。随着Facebook的发展,这种交互程度被人为的加载了更丰富的样式,比如赠送第三方应用提供的虚拟礼物、邀请参加电影院的某场首映礼等等。而Zynga等游戏厂商的入驻,则更加依赖于用户交互带来的传播感染价值,一款新的社交游戏,很容易由其原始玩家发起邀约或是挑战类型的交互请求,实现向外的扩散,吸引更多批次的用户进来。但是事情的演变往往出乎意料,社交游戏因为趋利而本末倒置的将交互作为游戏的主体内容,游戏的内容价值反倒成为了稀缺的附庸品,使得社交游戏产品历史上迄今为止没有出现过一款以“品质”闻名的产品,前面说《Farm Ville》到达过8300万活跃用户的规模,但是从8300万跌到不到3000万,也只用了6个月——有谁会沉迷于种菜偷菜这种机械而僵化的游戏体验一直持续半年以上呢?前文提到过数次的中国社交游戏开发商“五分钟”也已经裁员超过95%以上,如今只剩一个空壳公司,业务消减几近于零,原因同样在于,当用户的耐性被磨光的时候,社交游戏的可玩性也就不复存在了。

或许,“社交”之于“游戏”,作为一个形容词的属性会越来越淡漠,甚至是消亡。《植物大战僵尸》、《愤怒的小鸟》、《神庙逃亡》的成功正在启示游戏行业里的后进创业者,游戏最受用户看重的,是它所提供和释放出来的乐趣,而非表现形式。在未来,游戏只会有轻重之分,前者适合碎片化、偏重休闲的场景,后者主攻高投入、偏重竞技的场景,而社交本身,则不再重要。在没有Facebook、甚至没有互联网的时代,我们也曾邀上三五好友到家里来,插上卡带握紧手柄,体验游戏带来的乐趣,而这个过程,又何尝不能称之为“社交”呢?


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