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Hulu与Youtube是在线视频业务的硬币两面,它们不仅一起开创了互联网的流媒体大潮,而且也各领风骚,给中国的视频网站指明了两条截然不同的道路。

相比Youtube的名声,Hulu在中国的曝光度并不高,毕竟,UGC更容易制造传播上的热点,在用户带宽尚处起步阶段的时期,人们也易于接受画质模糊但内容有趣的短视频。但是Youtube始终没能建立起成功的盈利模式,它的存活,完全仰仗于Google在2006年掏出16.5亿美元买下了它,然后成为Google战略部署中的一枚棋子。也正是为了对抗网络视频对于传统影视行业的侵蚀、将用户的注意力从搞笑的猫咪身上拉回制片商耗费巨资拍摄出来的影视大片身上,NBC环球集团和新闻集团出资在2007年出资成立了Hulu,并且拉来了亚马逊CEO杰夫·贝索斯的得力干将杰森?吉拉尔担任CEO。

鲜为人知的是,Hulu.com的域名意义,其实就源自中文里的“葫芦”一词,在中国神话故事里,“葫芦”通常都蕴藏着许多宝贝和惊喜,Hulu也是如此对其进行定位的。

因为背靠美国大部分主流影视公司的关系,Hulu得以提供源源不断的正版影视剧在线播放,这是北美独此一家的核心竞争力优势,也正是因此,Hulu虽然在流量上仍然不及Youtube,但其在商业价值上完全盖过了Youtube的风头——Youtube号称四十亿部在线视频,但因为大多时间过短且意义不够明显(无法匹配广告内容),但是仅有3%可以嵌入广告,而Hulu只有数亿视频内容,但是其中超过80%都可以安置贴片等形式的广告,在回报率上让投资者心满意足。

中国市场里的学生们,几乎全部都是以Youtube模式起家,将《一个馒头引发的血案》这种UGC短视频作为吸引用户的手段,而在资本介入之后,为了解决盈利问题,又开始纷纷为自己注入Hulu模式的基因,典型的例子是优酷和土豆,前几年中国视频行业中的“版权大战”,就有他俩参与的身影,优酷重视电影大片,与时代华纳、迪士尼、二十世纪福克斯等全球影视业巨头都签署了版权协议,而土豆也在电视剧和动漫市场上处于领先地位。

由于中国的视频网站不似Hulu那样本身就有着影视公司的控股或者投资,所以在版权上仍然需要支付相当高昂的费用——这个费用在热门题材的影视内容上往往还包含一定程度的溢价,所以行业里也曾不乏危言耸听的声音,认为抬高版权最终会拖垮在线视频网站,所以一些后入者,如搜狐视频、腾讯视频和百度的爱奇艺,东家不敢贸然投入太多的资金,所以在去年这三家合谋共同购买版权,实现共享和互换,借此来降低成本、均摊风险。

大公司的视频项目尚且如此,中国一些财力远没那么雄厚、又在融资上没有取得太好成绩的视频网站,则是根本就无法与Hulu模式沾上一点边了。酷六被盛大收购之后,本是也想将盛大作为经济后盾去参与“版权大战”,其创始人李善友一度“豪掷三个亿人民币掀起视频业反盗版联盟和正版内容采购高峰”,但是高投入在高竞争的格局下并没有带来高利润,两年不到的时间,李善友黯然“下课”,盛大请了内部的一个职业经理人角色来打理酷六,重新回归影响稍弱但成本低廉的UGC道路。至于后来的酷六和56一起,寄望美女主播的形式能够另辟蹊径的创造新的盈利模式,这是另一个话题,在此暂且不表。

风光数年之后,Hulu迎来了它的第一次危机,也是足以——或者说是正在打垮它的最严重危机。

人们通常认为射向Hulu的第一颗子弹是由Netflix动手的,这颗子弹的名字叫做《纸牌屋》。与Hulu搬运当下影视内容——这意味着Hulu并不算完全意义上的独家,而且网络播放相比线下仍然存在一定的滞后性——不同的是,北美光碟租售企业Netflix通过数字渠道了解用户的喜好和特征之后,迎合这种需求拿出了自制剧《纸牌屋》,这部剧集在2013年年初横扫美国在线视频市场,同时极为有力的刺激了Netflix的自有业务,使它领跑美国在线影视的销售业绩。

相比“靠天吃饭”的广告,自产自销的模式在性价比和稳定性上更胜一筹,这使Hulu背后的股东坐不住了,而他们又无法理解投资制作一部电影或是电视剧,却根本不将其推到电影院或是电视台内的意义和价值。

然而,早在Netflix和它的《纸牌屋》之前,就有人对Hulu发出过警告:剥离版权,Hulu几乎没有任何剩余资产,Hulu可以是背后数家影视公司的子嗣,但却无法保证自己是独生子嗣,一旦出现更加强势的合作方(例如苹果、亚马逊)加入建立起版权分销市场,Hulu将面临出局的危险。

这个站在“居安思危”立场上的预言最终得到了证实,从2011年开始,Hulu的主要几个大股东(NBC环球集团、新闻集团和迪士尼)不满Hulu单纯的免费影视+广告增值的收入结构,强迫Hulu像Netflix那样推出Hulu Plus收费模式,并且将最高广告时间从2分钟增加到4分钟,希望Hulu能够打造一个旱涝保收的营业壁垒。

但是在互联网上,哪有什么旱涝保收的生意在呢?

今年年初,杰森·吉拉尔辞职,他在个人博客上发布了一篇称得上是伤感的文章,追忆了他和Hulu的奋斗史,但并没有明言辞职原因。但是,一个普遍的推测是,杰森·吉拉尔厌倦了和股东的博弈战,他认为互联网将使传统影视产业衰亡(杰森·吉拉尔曾撰文表达这个观点),但是Hulu的投资方恰好又是这些传统影视产业的巨擘们,这种矛盾把杰森·吉拉尔逼出了局,也让Hulu最终丧失掉了股东们的信任:谁会真心扶持一个以颠覆自己为理想目标的养子呢?

在图谋上市未果之后,Hulu的股东们就已经决定将其卖掉,Google、亚马逊甚至雅虎都表示出了对它的兴趣,但这些买家目前的出价都无法让Hulu的股东们满意,他们还在需求更优越的条件。而在中国,Hulu的学徒们也不希望走上重蹈覆辙的道路,优酷、搜狐视频都在探索自制剧的方向,在拿来主义的指导之下,中国的在线视频行业可能会产生一个“Youtube+Hulu+Netflix”的标准配置。

注:本文首发于网易科技专栏


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