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豆瓣大概是中国唯一一家没有“影子”的主流互联网产品——你可以从新浪身上看到雅虎的影子,从优酷身上看到Youtube的影子,从人人网上看到Facebook的影子,但是唯独豆瓣衣袂飘飘,顺着SNS(社交网络服务)的路线,硬生生的拔地而起,成为了文艺青年的大本营。

这也意味着豆瓣的商业模式无法参照美国互联网上的成熟案例,当豆瓣从一家由创始人杨勃一个人在北京豆瓣胡同旁的星巴克编写程序就能创建的独立网站,成为需要养活300多号人物、承载7000万文艺青年社交生活的庞大社区,挣钱是一个迫在眉睫的大问题。

豆瓣在行业内被称作是“慢公司”的典范,不仅仅是在发展速度上相比那些如狼似虎的中国互联网企业显得慢条斯理,而且杨勃自己也是一个温吞的人,知乎上有前豆瓣的员工形容杨勃懂得“耐心的倾听”,“阿北(杨勃的网名)喜欢说:对。这是口头禅,表示收到你表达的内容,并不代表100%的同意。他说话比较慢,对话中回应的也比较慢。通常在你提出一个问题之后,先是大量思考,可能会有几十秒,然后说:有N点,1……2……3……思路很清晰。”

这种自上而下的企业文化也决定了豆瓣不可能建立如同网游之于腾讯、电商之于阿里巴巴那样猛烈而需要强大执行力作为保障的商业模式,杨勃极为推崇美国《连线》(Wired)杂志前任主编克里斯?安德森(Chris Anderson)所写的《长尾效应》,这是一本颠覆“二八原则”的著作,作者认为并证明了非畅销的长尾商品因为品类基数庞大,累加之后却有着不逊色于畅销商品的利润,而互联网的兴起,使人们找到和获取长尾商品的成本大大降低,使得后者有了“广泛产生、传播和获取的可能”。

杨勃在对《长尾效应》的书评中写道:“长尾里选择过多,所以要为每个人挑出合适的东西,需要更强大的过滤器。编辑、星探、营销者、广告是传统的‘事前过滤器’。博客、评论、推荐、草根意见是“事后过滤器”,只有这些能应对长尾的低信噪比和极端个人化的兴趣取向。网络发展到今天,终于有了搜索、推荐这些强大的信息技术,可以为单个消费者提供有效的过滤。这是长尾现象和Web 2.0产生在同样年代的原因。”

豆瓣的商业潜力,也在于“过滤器”这个角色的扮演上,在文化产业(图书、电影、音乐等),豆瓣首先是一个“事后过滤器”,用户在豆瓣上标记自己读过的图书、看过的电影、听过的音乐,形成以评分、评论、讨论为核心的内容资产,进而同时又具备了“事前过滤器”的属性,这些意见会在一定程度上影响新接触用户的事前选择,作为一个连接人与作品、作品与人乃至人与人的桥梁,豆瓣也就变得“不可或缺”。

但是,蕴含商业潜力,并不能直接等同于拥有商业模式。就像新浪微博一样,空有影响力,但是生意往往都是绕过主办方在进行。早在《失恋三十三天》引爆国产电影票房神话之前,许多国内的影视发行方就留有豆瓣的专项预算,但这些预算通常都送给了能够提供刷分服务的公关公司和愿意为影片说漂亮话的影评人,许多图书出版方高价请人撰写书评,也是业内常见的案例。

除了通过技术手段清理一些不太真实的数据,豆瓣并无太多理由介入内容层面的直接交易,因为相信“推荐的力量”,豆瓣三百余人的工作团队中,超过半数都是工程师,他们日复一日的完善豆瓣的算法,试图理解用户每一次点击、标记、发言等行为痕迹背后的逻辑关系,最终为用户带来最为匹配的推荐结果——就像“一千个人眼中,有着一千个哈姆雷特”,每一个豆瓣用户,都将有着一个独立的围绕着他而存在的数据库,通过人机交互,豆瓣将完全符合他的兴趣顺次展开,其中亦不会缺少商业内容,因为“精准”,豆瓣用户对于商业内容的接受程度将比其他平台更高,这种ROI将给豆瓣带来广告客户的极大回报。

所以我们可以看到,豆瓣正在搭建的商业模式轮廓正是基于算法和社交上的精准优势:

1、外围推荐系统(以图书类商品为主):当用户在豆瓣浏览感兴趣的图书时,可以直接通过与豆瓣合作的电商网站——例如当当、卓越亚马逊等下单,豆瓣从每一次成功交易那里都能获得佣金提成;
2、O2O营销系统(以电影类商品为主):当下互联网仍然难以轻易取代影院带来的独特体验,而豆瓣在挖掘用户在电影上的喜好时,选择了本地化的道路——它和影院合作,提供网络购票服务,用户通过都买购买的电影票,也能够给豆瓣带来售价上的分成;

3、内容出版系统(以电子书类商品为主):上文提到过的电影《失恋三十三天》,其实就源自豆瓣一名用户在小组中的直播帖,最后被制片公司选中,邀请作者将帖子改变成为剧本,最终造就了这部2011年的黑马电影。豆瓣也发现了内容变现的价值,加上亚马逊Kindle在电子书出版上的试水较为顺利,豆瓣也拿出了自己的阅读产品,并且有着专门的市场部门劝说作者授权作品,豆瓣与作者“三七分成”,即获得电子书销售收入的30%

4、用户付费系统(以音乐类商品为主):随着移动互联网热潮的到来,碎片化的场景带给了流媒体音乐新的机会,豆瓣也加重了音乐版权方面的投资,借以提供名为“豆瓣FM”的在线音乐产品,目前,用户可以每月支付10元人民币获得高品质、无广告的音乐收听权限,在未来可能会像iTunes那样进一步涉足音乐销售市场;

5、网络广告系统(以豆瓣网站为主):迄今为止,广告仍然是一个重要的收入来源,豆瓣在PC网页上有着固定的广告位,向企业客户提供定制版的广告展示,大部分也会和豆瓣小站绑定整合;
通过这五种渠道,豆瓣2012年的一个大概收入在8000万人民币左右,据称已经“接近盈利状态”,也就是说,豆瓣的年度运营成本在8000万人民币以上(包括人力、服务器、采购等),考虑到运营成本注定逐年涨高,豆瓣在2013年以及未来可能要突破1亿人民币的收入门槛,才可真正获得盈利。

问题在于,豆瓣的商业模式暂且还构不成用户的“刚需”,固然边际成本极低,但是要想依靠量变引起质变,还需要引入更大规模的用户,而这又违背了豆瓣的理念和特质。豆瓣曾与QQ空间有过一次短暂的合作,在腾讯的用户群那里开设入口之后,蜂拥过来的人流——多半都不是豆瓣群聚的那种文艺青年,带来了十分喧嚣而品质低下的内容和社交,反倒损伤了豆瓣原生用户的访问体验,最后豆瓣中止了与QQ空间的合作,这也意味着豆瓣在相当长的一段时间内还没有做好准备如何迎接这些“长尾”用户。

所以,当豆瓣排斥了用户数量上的增长,提升盈利能力的方法就只剩下了挖掘现有用户的商业价值,豆瓣近年以来推出过的一些较为成功的在线音乐、在线阅读等产品,也有部分反响不那么好的产品,如阿尔法城、豆瓣说等,都是出于拉升用户停留时间的目的。只有使出各种手段,驱动用户黏在豆瓣的社区之内,才有机会向用户推销豆瓣未来的新产品集群。

必须承认的是,这个可能性值得期待,而且豆瓣在接受投资时也有所挑选:投资方必须尊重并相信豆瓣的运营策略。所以豆瓣才能一直保持慢却稳重的速度,特立独行的培养文艺市场。

说到特立独行,杨勃曾在个人博客上分享过自己的一个怪癖:当他在电影院观看电影时,只要周围有打电话、说话、嗑瓜子的观众,杨勃都会忍不住怒视对方,然后“把食指放在嘴前嘘三秒钟,如果没有效果五分种以后重复,时间加倍”,因此还曾和人在电影院里差点打起来。

这种独特性,在其他的公司常被视作不可控风险的一种,但是在豆瓣,这正是投资者信赖豆瓣终成大器的原因之一。如果豆瓣哪天缺少了杨勃及其特立独行的气质,恐怕才会带来慌张和危机。

需要记住的是,《长尾效应》的副标题是:“别老掂着从榜顶的几个巨无霸里多榨几百万出来。娱乐的未来在码流低浅的那头无数个细微市场那儿”。


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