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2013年6月,外贸电商网站兰亭集势赴美上市,成为两年以来集欢聚时代和唯品会后第三家登陆美国资本市场的中国互联网企业,自中概股因被做空而遭遇冰期以来,几乎每次逆势而为的上市壮举都被视为破冰的信号,却一次比一次声响微渺,到了兰亭集势这种在低迷期出于压力而强制上市的角色,更是没有媒体好意思再用“中概股振兴”来修饰新闻标题。

就像大多数中国人都无法理解美国人对于棒球运动的热情,许多美国人也很难看懂中国人的生意经,尤其是在讲究公开和透明的互联网行业,中国市场存在许多独有规则和灰色地带,都使美国投资者以及舆论环境感到风险重重,甚至连一些误会都显得颇为有趣——2013年9月,腾讯投资搜狗,腾讯搜搜与QQ输入法分别合并至搜狗搜索和搜狗输入法,FT中文网的报道是这么写的:“腾讯投资近5亿美元,入股一家流行的文本编辑器和搜索引擎公司”,文本编辑器,这就是老外对输入法的理解。

所以你要去给美国人讲什么三级火箭,基本上是鸡同鸭讲,费力不说,还惹怀疑,周鸿祎就学得很机巧,当香橼连续五次做空奇虎360时,周鸿祎放弃了你来我往的辩论,把事情交给了法务,自己不再出面吵架。

事到如今,我们不妨以史为鉴,以结果为导向来看看以奇虎360为例的中概股走势,与做空机构当初的判断有无出入:

香橼:我们在2011年发布了一份关于斯凯的报告,认为它的股价将由18美元降至3美元,不到4个月,尽管极力自卫,斯凯股价还是只有3美元,这不是Citron造成的,而是其业务模式发展的必须结果。我们认为奇虎360与斯凯,都在故意向华尔街美化其业务,我们预计,奇虎360的股价将降至5美元,较当前股价低75%。

事实:奇虎360在2013年股价最高涨到了81美元,市值突破百亿美元大关。

香橼:一个web 1.0的品牌、web 1.0的业务模式,却希望能指引企业进入移动、云计算、搜索,在这些领域,奇虎360都落后数年,至今市场份额近乎零。比失实的数据更让人不安的是,奇虎360厚颜无耻的撒谎。在招股说明书和季度财报中,奇虎都自称是“中国领先的移动安全提供商”。

事实:奇虎360因为浏览器的稳固基础,在进入搜索引擎市场后已经使中国最大的搜索引擎公司百度深感威胁,而在移动端,奇虎360同样有着一定程度的布局,“领先 ”一词,不算过分。

香橼:奇虎没有颠覆性的技术,也没有诸如微博这样快速发展的产品,它只有浏览器,而且功能非常简单。对于那些需要上历史课的人来说,浏览器只是工具,而不是业务。作为浏览器行业的“鼻祖”,网景现在已经关闭,一家非盈利机构拥有其开发的浏览器。即使对于浏览器业务十分突出的公司而言,一个坏消息是竞争日趋激烈。占有中国搜索市场75%份额的百度最近推出了自有浏览器,其一大特点就是专注于互联网安全。

事实:这个不必再说,奇虎360不是网景,百度浏览器也不是Google Chrome。

借助时间线的推移,一路对比下来便不难看出,这就是中概股面对的问题:除非你有极好的业绩,否则很难用中国特色的商业模式去说服美国资本业界或是任何形式的自证清白。与大多数动机论者和民族主义者所咬牙切齿的不同,香橼身为做空机构的声望一直不差,只是它确实不太了解中国的很多游戏规则,过度依赖美国的既往经验,导致判断失准。另一家曾多次做空中概股的浑水,早在去年年底就宣布“对中概股失去了兴趣”,极为明智的停止了游戏。

所以,奇虎360的强势业绩是中概股破冰的第一个充分不必要条件,它使做空中概股的难度陡然增强,对于仰仗结果而非过程的分析师而言,没有什么比得上预言落空要更使自己难堪的了,美国人容易犯错,也愿意认错,“奇虎360效应”是贴在中概股身上的一张护符,对质疑声音的压制力量可以持续。

从香橼对百度的盲目信赖也可以看出,美国资本市场在定义中国互联网企业时,有着极为显著的参照物情结,百度是“中国的Google”,优酷是“中国的Youtube”,这都会让美国投资者对于中概股的理解有着一定启迪意义,至于人人在路演时打出的“Facebook+Zynga+Groupon+LinkedIn”,一度引发疯狂,美国投资者一边感慨中国真是神奇一夜之间就可以冒起这么一家这么雄厚牛逼的互联网公司一边买进人人的股票,一度把人人的市值推到了70亿美元的高度,最后发现上当受骗才叫苦不迭,又将责任归咎于中概股的“不诚信”。

暂且抛开仍在香港和美国两地徘徊不决的阿里巴巴不谈,正在紧锣密鼓筹备上市的两只准中概股:58同城和去哪儿,各自的业务模式都有着明确的参照物,58同城是“中国的Cragilist”(Cragilist:美国最大的分类信息网站),而去哪儿则是“中国的携程”(携程:已被美国股市熟悉的中国旅行订票网站,原型可以拓展到全球旅游电商集团Travix及其旗下的CheapTickets)。同时,它们又不同于迅雷这样的折戟者,存在显而易见的法律瑕疵。

58同城虽然盈利能力衰微,被人诟病“活生生的将智慧密集型产业做成了劳动密集型产业”,去哪儿也与之类似,按国通用准则,去哪儿今年上半年亏损了数以百万计的美元,但是,盈利从来不是中概股的首要问题——比如盛大,盈利能力一直不弱,却始终不被华尔街认可——最重要的是中概股的业务构成与中国庞大的人口红利有着多高的匹配度,这才是中概股在回报率上所蕴含的潜质。

分类信息和旅行订票,都是依托经济增长而具有想象空间的行业,中国的经济一直以来都保持了诡异的上升趋势,财富价值的扩大会使购买力和购买欲望进一步增强,租房招聘、出游订票的大蛋糕一定会让相应细分市场的领先者受益最大,58同城走得比赶集网更远,而去哪儿则与百度的关系亲密无间,这些都是资本市场的利好因素,只要中国的GDP增速还是美国的三倍以上,58同城和去哪儿的长远收入就不是迫在眉睫的困难。

所以,相比欢聚时代和兰亭集势仍然难以割舍的“中国特色”,58同城和去哪儿的清晰定位和可参照属性,是中概股破冰的第二个充分不必要条件。

第三个充分不必要条件,是中国互联网正在进入新一轮洗牌热潮,谋求资本的支持成为烧钱的先决动因。

众所周知,移动互联网带来的冲击,远非用户对于屏幕的切换,传统巨头城池失守,切出了全新而广袤的生存空间,移动互联网是多入口且更加长尾的领域,机会的分散让竞争力显得尤为重要。近一年以来,各种横向和纵向的并购和整合层出不穷,“拼爹”一词也频频出现在各大峰会上,只是儿多爹少,亲儿子又都有着“排外”的属性,没拼上爹的,只有自寻出路,港股和美股通常是造血的两个直接平台,而登陆美股对品牌的收益更多,也理所当然的成为了“流血上市”的最佳目标。

除了58同城和去哪儿之外,触控科技、盛大文学、3G门户、新浪微博甚至连500万彩票网(现金流很强)都有着赴美上市的计划,在接连不断的撞击下,即使成功率低下,可观的基数也决定了这批中概股远征军不至于全军覆没。需要注意的还有中国4G牌照的发放情况,这使中国移动互联网的发展速度可能会藏有跃进的机会,所有二线互联网企业都将意识到一个事实:一定要透支未来的钱,在今天打赢一场决定未来的仗。

当然,私下也有一些传言,除了少数垃圾股之外的多数中概股背后都有着一些坚定而殷实的投资机构,持有避险资金作为保底,这些机构的执行者善于利用中美信息不对称的背景,以合法以及疑似合法的手段来刺激股市牟利,他们乐于增加中概股的数量,这样可以均摊投资风险。

套用“天时地利人和”的俗语,中概股专业做空机构进入沉寂期算是赶上了“天时”,58同城和去哪儿用美国模式的身先力行算是铺好了“地利”,二线互联网企业统一上市日程集体敲门算是构成了“人和”,有此三大条件,从2013年年底开始,中概股的破冰之旅以及第五轮热潮,应是指日可待。

最后必须要说明的是,破冰乃至热潮,都并不意味着中概股的表现会超出预期,相反,由于那名以打击恐怖分子出名的前联邦检察官、现美国证监会主席的存在,中概股普遍糟糕的财务情况,可能会继续拉低后续资本的注入,指望这些新中概股保持强劲的势头,恐怕不太乐观。

—————

iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@gmail.com。


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