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文/iDoNews资深作者 李成东

2012,独立B2C已死!天猫战后观格局》这个标题是有争议的,甚至是错误的,因为话说的太绝对。说的太绝对,就难免错误。

我的核心观点:

1.独立电商有价值,但市场影响力已很小;

2. 中小型电商垂直细分专业化是趋势;

3.中小型电商入住平台大势所趋,不再独立;

4.综合性B2C巨头亏损,主因在毛利率太低。

独立电商有没有价值,肯定有。在原文中已经明确描述过网上零售市场,并非铁板一块,而是根据用户的购买习惯和心理,应该划分为三个市场。“以价格导向的淘宝和以品牌直营旗舰店为主的天猫市场,其次以自建物流提供优质服务的京东、易迅网和苏宁易购。最后才是新增用户市场,没有明确的购物网站目标的用户,以及有非常明确的购物目标,注重网站独特设计体验的用户市场。”针对三部分不同的用户,既做官网,也进入天猫平台,也进京东、苏宁、腾讯平台(资源有限就在天猫即可)。用户在哪,业务就开到哪。简单总结,无论是品牌商还是零售渠道商,独立官网都是有价值的, 尤其是知名的品牌。我的地盘我做主,独立官网的灵活性要比在别的平台大的多。

独立B2C“已死”,更加准确的观点是,独立B2C的市场影响力越来越弱,甚至可能会被边缘化。当然这句话,更不会有说垂直电商已死的意思,综合是少数的,而电商越做越细分越专业却是必然的。

淘宝占80%市场份额,然后Top 10又占自营B2C的80%市场。独立电商有他自己的价值,但看市场份额,的确越来越小了,肯定不是市场的主角。现在Top 10外的BeC占全网交易额的3%不到,有规模还完全独立的垂直B2C,发展的很快的、还不错的案例已经很少了。有两个案例比较特别,一个是三四线品牌特卖的唯品会,一个是做二手奢侈品的寺库。

其它呢?无论是大家知道的图书当当网、家电3C的库巴新蛋、化妆品的乐峰、聚美优品,服装的凡客、玛莎玛索,酒类的酒仙网,珠宝钻石的珂兰钻石、佐卡伊;卖鞋的好乐买、优购网都已经不独立,融入第三方平台了。我觉得这个数据和这么多的案例已经非常明确说明趋势了。未来有没有可能逆趋势,仁者见仁智者见智吧!但即使逆趋势,发生在什么时候,能到多少比例呢?不管,怎么逆转,都无法扭转市场的格局,至少三五年无望。五年后的生意太遥远,做电商能活5年就不错了。

美国和中国市场不一样。全美去年大概1700亿美元,eBay 和Amazon在美国本土市场各约300亿美元,集中程度一般,所以还有数以百计的B2C不依靠eBay和Amazon生存。这数百家B2C,它们不上市,它们也盈利,它们盈利是因为没有碰到像京东、苏宁易购、易迅网这样的把毛利润率打到10%以下的电商巨头(Amazon的毛利率24%,沃尔玛的毛利率25%)。

所以回过头来思考国内大型综合B2C之所以亏损,不是大家认为的营销费用高,大型综合B2C的营销费用也就占营收的1-2%,主要是毛利润率太低,不足10%,只要这些B2C毛利率能够有15%,我可以很明确的告诉你京东和易迅网都是盈利的(苏宁电器19%)。这也回答了大多数人有关线上和线下成本效率的问题,线上是一定比线下高的。

昨天,见一综合电商巨头。他说明年整体市场费用不变,而市场费用比例会有很大下降。为什么如此?不是没钱了,主要是互联网有价值的流量能够买的流量全买了。传统渠道的广告,又很难评估效果,2013年就是一个做优化的过程。

======带个自私自利的小AD=========

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