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在2012年的年终年会,京东商城CEO刘强东发表了对2013年展望的讲话,并一再强调要“休养生息”,京东打算盈利,是要其它竞争对手握手言和吗?2013年,会少一些血雨腥风的价格战吗?我看,未必。

2013年继续规模优先

京东要实现千亿目标,就必须在家电上突破,前面的障碍就是苏宁电器

“我们强调,我做了10亿,你给我10个亿该有的毛利率,我做了100亿的时候,100亿的规模该有毛利率,我必须要拿到,我也没必要少。这样一来,规模不断扩大,毛利率就自然会不断提升。”刘强东在近期接受记者时表示。

家电和3C是典型的规模型生意,不同的规模不同的议价能力。京东要盈利,改善毛利率的根本办法还是扩大规模。3C类目,京东已经取得了和苏宁相当的议价能力,但是百亿规模的家电业务远远不及千亿的苏宁。在商品、返点以及各种支持上,京东相对苏宁还是处于劣势地位。规模从何而来,价格手段促销拉动是必要的也是必须的。

之前京东是从代理商拿货,而现在可以转为从品牌商直接拿货。不仅在货品上有保证,返点毛利都能够提升。比如之前与京东保持距离的海尔,从2013年中开始,代理商货源将被斩断,海尔将给京东直接供货。苏宁易购在2012年底为此做出的改变是,原来有苏宁易购自己的家电采购团队将合并到集团,由集团统一采购,这样能够拿到更高的返点支持。易迅网合并了五百城的家电业务,重新制定了2013年的家电战略。简单的说,大家都是为了2013年家电价格大战做好准备。

言必“阿里”

从一开始强调京东的历史是不断的超越“巨人”,到后来是三大战略的自营电商,供应链金融、物流等等开放平台,似乎都是与阿里策略针锋相对,而阿里是它们下一个超越的对象。

这数年来,京东资金链断流的流言已经太多,当当网CEO李国庆甚至断言2012年秋季将耗尽资金。因此京东的供应链金融更多的是帮助京东解决资金链压力,让供应商放心,也更加依赖京东,解除了京东发展的后顾之忧。至于说,京东能否从中获取多大的经济利益,这还得等待京东自身的交易达到一定的规模之后了。

开放仓储、物流、客服体系数据等等,京东过去几年融资的大部分资金都沉淀在这些领域,也是最有价值的部分。由于亚洲1号还在建设中,POP平台业务也算是刚刚进入正轨,开放,开放给谁用?2012年是个开始,2013年以后会逐渐推进,但依旧不能指望开放的仓储物流等体系能够给京东带来利润。2013年反倒值得关注的是京东的广告业务收入,品牌商们急于扩展线上业务,所有的广告位都是“有求必应”统统买下,据说一品牌商出手2000万“包圆”了某广告位。

当然不管京东如何突破,短时间内超越阿里自然没有可能,因为阿里是一个生态系统,而不只是一个淘宝、天猫那么简单。而在阿里的未来战略里面,京东也不是它们重点所需要考虑的,即使京东未来继续每年保持100%的增长速度,到2015年也不及大淘宝(含天猫)的一半的量。

最后,个人看法三五年内看不到阿里京东的绝对胜负。两家都能成功,好比美国的Amazon和Ebay,这两家都是非常成功的具有代表性的电子商务巨头。所以不存在说一家赢了,另一家就会受损失败。最后的结果是,它们都赢了,线下输了。此谓:神仙打架,凡人遭殃。

当阿里京东紧密布局未来零售格局,超越零售,布局产业链上下游的时候,传统零售商们还在做什么白日梦?马云和王健林对赌1亿,王健林失败了,绝对不是万达,而是数以万计的百货商场,家电3C连锁卖场以及商超。输不起,传统零售势在必行,这是传统零售商需要从刘强东内部讲话精神里面领悟的。


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