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文/iDoNews新锐作者 林海

刚刚拜读完李成东兄的《2012,独立B2C已死!天猫战后观格局》一文,对于文章中的许多观点都比较认同,但是李兄所认为2012年独立B2C已死,2013年是综合性平台之战的观点,实在不能苟同。

首先,京东商城现在走进了电商的怪圈—收入激增,亏损扩大—其根本原因就是因为京东商城想做在线超市,或者说是综合性平台。笔者在《淘宝PK京东商城:七个平台对三个业态》一文中认为,在线超市需要在线下投入海量的资金,这和电商当前的低毛利是矛盾的。京东商城不能再一意孤行,必需调整自己的发展模式。综合性平台只有沃尔玛能做,但沃尔玛不会做,因为这意味着革自己的命。而独立B2C是垂直化平台,这种商业模式的探索只是一个开始。未来独立B2C一方面将吸收超市、品牌折扣店、便利店以及品牌连锁店四种业态的优点,另一方面将形成B2B+B2C+O2O复合成长的模式。

这里需要先说一下线下流通业态竞争的情况。简单地说,线下流通企业的发展体现出一种规律,即连锁店战胜了非连锁。雷士照明是一个突出的例子,连锁店的体系吸收了加盟商,而雷士照明又仿效了格力电器,对加盟商进行企业化管理和交叉持股,让连锁体系爆发出战斗力。非连锁的企业许多是家族企业,财务、管理等方面都不规范。这样垂直化的连锁企业很容易做大规模,越战越强,形不成规模的非连锁企业只能靠地方保护主义苟延残喘。独立电商应该认识到这一点,原来自己是在单打独斗,从业态和资源整合两方面,其实没有线下连锁体系先进和资源更加丰富。知乎上有个问题,凡客是否能超过优衣库?优衣库把连锁做到了极致,如果没有电商业态上的创新,凭什么如果凡客能超过优衣库呢?如果不能超过就能认为独立B2C已死吗,然后就认为综合性平台为王吗?其实独立B2C是垂直化平台的电商,这恰恰代表着电商的未来。

李成东兄在文中有一个观点,当品牌企业都去了天猫,谁还会在垂直型电商那里购物。这里混淆了一个概念,天猫是在线购物中心,在线购物中心一定是品牌多,但从线下的世贸天街来看,购物中心离主流消费人群的购买力是有距离的,线上品牌云集不等于用户一定会买单。垂直型电商首先需要做平台,把封闭模式转化为开放模式,这样就能吸引众多商户,在处理好零供关系后,供应商就会和电商形成合力,具备了和线下连锁体系抗衡的能力。垂直型电商还可以做内容,自己创造流量,降低用户的获取成本。垂直型电商可以一业为主,象屈臣氏一样增加关联性品类,提高用户的黏性。垂直型电商还可以做移动电子商务,把功能和服务细分化,转化为一个个移动客户端软件。垂直型电商还可以通过做平台增加一份服务性收入。更重要的是,垂直化电商可以通过股权多元化来获得更多的社会资源。独立B2C不仅不会死,而且将展现出惊人的爆发力。

独立B2C的成长反映的是互联网“去中心化”的规律。淘宝和京东商城目前是电子商务的双核心,但需要居安思危,因为独立B2C一定会如雨后春笋般成长。李成东兄只看到了腾讯、亚马逊、1号店和苏宁易购,但更多的电商已经登场:顺丰、娃哈哈、西单商城、中国建行、大连万达、中央卫视等等。独立B2C有了更多的全网营销的选择。当当的战略失误在于过早地做百货,选择高毛利产品。垂直化和深耕市场才是商业规律。垂直化的品类杀手的崛起是线下零售的普世规律,线上也不例外。独立B2C目前最迫切的问题是管理问题。电商对于管理方面的无知令人震惊,这不是长江商学院可以解决的问题。从管理的角度看,电商应该去娱乐化,从个性化ERP、海底捞的人力资源哲学等点点滴滴做起。

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