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在今年元旦放假的时候,第一次听一个投资人说现在PE和风投从看好电子商务到追捧O2O。李开复老师在《商业价值》年会上也提到看好O2O 。最初我对O2O真的没什么感觉。O2O被称作“线上聚客,线下交易”或“线下聚客,线上交易”,但O2O的成功案例还比较少,亚马逊和7-11的合作,团购网站的崛起和速降,都很难说让人看到很光明的前景。但是,派代网友淘小心推荐的品途网创始人王振华和运营总监朱刚联合创作的关于O2O的文章引起了我的注意,特别是朱刚在派代网已经连续写了六篇关于O2O模式系列讨论的文章,如《O2O,只有淘宝、腾讯和铁道部可以玩》、《O2O在线支付,要给用户一个什么理由》等。对于团购模式、大众点评网等,朱刚都做了更加深入的分析,但朱刚强调团购主要是指服务业的团购以及背后的大当量级市场。移动互联网和支付也是朱刚观察O2O的重点,而我则有另外的一些角度。

一、O2O到底是什么?这里我大胆地下个定义,O2O是制造业和服务业通过互联网、物联网实现了产业融合。这种融合体现在产品链、服务链和信用链的融合。现在团购是团购,以服务类产品为主,电子商务是电子商务,是实物产品为主,在上篇文章《三生万物:美团网1000亿目标能实现吗》中,我已经意识到电子商务的下一步是产品+服务+团购的融合。王振华和朱刚实际上提出了一个观点,O2O和团购的区别就在于O2O要在服务业中形成信用链,让服务企业象淘宝网店的商家一样高度重视用户的评论,并且建立一种在线的担保机制。但是,更重要的问题是产品链、服务链和信用链的融合,否则服务业本身竞争非常激烈,没有第三方利益机制的引入,让服务企业接受O2O是难度非常大的。这意味着需要先把信用链问题放一放,先看看前端的产品链和服务链如何融合,如果二者能有效融合,再增加信用链才会水到渠成。

二、O2O的关键在于全价值链经营。最近在研究娃哈哈、格兰仕、上品折扣等案例的时候发现一个有趣的现象,娃哈哈和格兰仕一个内贸起家,一个外贸起家,都在强调全品类、全渠道经营。而上品折扣作为新兴的业态则强调全渠道经营,线下线上统一价格和统一服务,继续发展下去也是全渠道、全品类经营。这就是说制造业和零售业的发展战略殊途同归,但我却对此持怀疑甚至否定的态度,原因是苹果公司不是全渠道、全品类经营,为什么取得了巨大的成功?诺基亚全渠道、全品类经营(诺基亚和京东商城也有战略合作),为什么诺基亚却遭遇滑铁卢。这里真的需要重温一下《蓝海战略》。“蓝海战略”其实是全价值链经营的一个总结,但没有提出全价值链概念。全价值链也不是追求大而全,而是追求产品链、服务链和信用链的有机统一。苹果公司是一个典型的全价值链公司,而三星是一个全产业链公司。这决定了苹果公司更轻和更富于市场弹性,而三星则是一个重资产公司。全价值链公司是一种跨界整合的公司,比如苹果公司的艺术基因就是因为乔布斯曾经对皮克斯公司进行投资,了解了皮克斯公司这种文化企业的打法。乔布斯还从ipod开始进入到音乐产业,了解到如何建立一个分享经济的商业模式。于是最终才有了ipod-iphone-ipad-iptv的产品布局,其内在价值都是分享无穷的应用。电子商务也是一种全价值链的商业模式,全渠道和全品类的经营思想非常OUT。而传统企业切入电子商务注定是从O2O开始的,在制造业的价值链和服务业的价值链中精准地找到节点,而互联网和物联网则是两大应用平台,支撑着全价值链的布局。

三、O2O全价值链经营的案例在哪里?网友一定会问,说的这么热闹,案例在哪里?O2O的全价值链经营模式不是轻易能形成的。电子商务快就是慢,慢就是快。只有耐心构建O2O全价值链的电商才能真正生存下来,找到电子商务的一片蓝海。这里还是给出一些提示,“宅经济”、休闲经济、人口老龄化和健康需求都是重要的刚性需求。电商现在需要研究的是星巴克,而不是亚马逊。需要研究的是凤凰传奇,而不是中国好声音。需要研究的是一个永续经营的商业模式,而不是我为自己带盐。


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