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今天看到魏武挥写的一篇文章,《惠特曼:淘宝最多只能活18个月》。梅格惠特现任惠普总裁兼CEO,2003年她任ebay总裁时认为淘宝只能活18个月,这个预言彻底破产了。这个标题究竟有什么意义呢?我相信是小编为了惊悚才改了魏武挥的标题,小编能不能长点心啊。

淘宝在我看来如果不犯大的错误的话,将在电商行业里活得很久,因为不知道哪位高人说过,中国是小资产阶级的汪洋大海。因此,中国一定有一家电商,因为市场定位是服务于中小企业而活得很长久。目前看这家电商的名字就叫淘宝,别无分号。但是淘宝确实有“精神分裂”,在当前流量如此紧张的情况下,淘宝的流量更加象天猫倾斜,而这与淘宝的立足之本是有矛盾的。C2B也得有流量啊,这个矛盾怎么解决后面再说。

派代资深网友大肚喃喃认为:“京东客户较淘宝人群消费能力和忠实度高出许多,这个可以从京东消费客单价和回头率可以看出”。“京东采取品类保护,每个品类同品牌商家不超过5家,可以配合厂家不引入其他卖家销售商品,避免恶性价格战和同质化。”“京东对入住商家都经过严格审核,在产品发票,发货及时度,退换货管理方面更严格,以确保商家对消费者的品质和服务保障,但是对商家要求更高。”不再引用了,否则就有侵犯知识产权的嫌疑了。可以看出,京东商城的目标是争取大企业进入开放平台。天猫在这方面已经抢了一个先。问题在于,谁更有后劲呢?淘宝的流量能否同时支持大企业为主的天猫平台和中小企业为主的淘宝呢?当然很困难,所以淘宝甚至想出手并购新浪微博

著名的管理学家高德拉特有一个约束理论,大意是企业经营要首先解决瓶颈问题,而不是优化每一个环节。因为瓶颈的存在,整个系统将发挥不出最大效率。当当现在就面临流量的瓶颈,这个瓶颈不解决,当当将难以止损。2012年当当亏损4.4亿人民币,并且亏损了两年。为了流量,当当也堂而皇之地加入了天猫。问题在于,流量之王淘宝本身也缺流量。坚持正品、为大企业服务、用体育营销等手段获取线下流量的京东商城的经营策略反而看上去比较清晰。京东商城不要那么多,只要优质流量。而淘宝什么都想要,这是一个很大的风险。当当的引流产品是图书,不如京东商城的引流产品—3C产品更加的大众化,而经营模式和京东商城却有些趋同。所以,当当刚刚上市,京东商城就在图书上对其发起了价格战。刘强东不象李国庆说的不懂事,而是很懂事。京东商城先灭了当当,又在2012年全力模仿淘宝的支付工具、在线融资,最近又看到了自己的服务短板。老刘,你别这么优秀行不行!所以2013年京东商城获得了融资靠的是精准的战略和强大的执行力。但这不等于京东商城就处于无忧之地。

电商前五位的选手除了淘宝和京东商城,就是苏宁、腾讯和万达了。淘宝对自己的流量危机认识的很深刻,因此最近一直在推动建设移动淘宝。而短期看,淘宝无论是自建SNS还是并购新浪微博都不太可能获得突破。淘宝的重心到底是服务大企业,还是中小企业或两者并重呢?苏宁和万达也面临同样的问题。作为后发者,首先做的就是给店商免费,而京东的做法则是“降低店铺的作用,保持京东总体风格统一”(大肚喃喃语)。而从保持总体风格统一这个角度看,万达和苏宁最大的不同,就在于后者将给电子商务带来业态的竞争。万达对线下的购物中心的业态十分熟悉,这意味着在平衡大企业和中小企业的矛盾的时候,万达可能用业态来解决这个问题。而淘宝已经一分为二,根本原因是因为淘宝没有真正解决正品问题,为了与京东商城抢大企业资源,才推出了天猫。具有讽刺意义的是,王健林一边和马云打赌,一边高价挖人才进入电商行业。在电商5强,万达最后出手,但是业态的竞争将让电子商务行业的发展进入到一个更高的境界。万达不仅威胁了淘宝,更威胁了京东商城

移动电子商务在理论上应该是腾讯的强项。2012年,腾讯电商达到40多亿元,但这是通过并购杂牌军而得到的。腾讯的优势在于移动互联网的流量入口微信和微博已居其一,很多人看好微信胜于微博,因为腾讯有张小龙这样的超级产品经理。腾讯的问题在于太多元化,这与之前走模仿式创新的道路有关。腾讯最可能突破的是在于成为娱乐帝国,因为腾讯的基因很草根,在娱乐为王的时代,有海量的用户,有游戏行业的积累,腾讯完全可以做大做强在线娱乐市场和并购线下娱乐公司。但是,腾讯却出乎意料地在电商行业完成了很多次并购。电子商务也是那么能够轻易采取模仿战略吗?当然不是。电子商务行业反而对于原创、差异化有着很高的要求。问题是,移动电子商务确实是一个新的机遇。但腾讯非常不专注,老是想在微信上尽快收费。从这种不专注看,腾讯在电商领域做配角的可能性更大。

苏宁一直是笔者不太愿意评论的。要求电商交税,张近东已经伤了一大批草根电商。电商当然应该交税,但谁都知道亚马逊在税收政策上一直有优惠,甚至亚马逊上市了这么多年。为什么美国这么大气,懂得培育一个新兴行业。中国这么多小微企业创业离不开电子商务,还非得从电商行业拔苗助长呢?很多电商企业千万级的销售额,利润只有几十万,这还是有专业操盘手的情况下。如果再交很多税,后果你懂的。

回到淘宝。淘宝现在应该思考持久战的问题。现在急于上市,遮蔽了淘宝的视野。中小企业是淘宝的根本。每个企业都有自己的基因和路径依赖,要做自己擅长做的事情。淘宝最需要做的事情就是做减法。之前一直在做加法。淘宝的利润率并不高。11%左右,但是此时此刻,反而更加应该反哺中小企业了。从反哺中小企业的过程中,淘宝能发现更好的商业模式。


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