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过去两周,苹果ios7发布会遭遇了来自粉丝和专业人士潮水般的吐槽。但对比三星每年110亿美元、4倍于苹果的营销费用,不得不承认苹果45%的利润率主要来自创新驱动,而不是营销驱动。以创新驱动为主导的企业一方面需要运营成本更低,另一方面在融资的时候也可比较主动。

在过去相当长的一段时间内,宝洁的品牌管理模式和营销模式成为了一种范式,但这是一种极为烧钱的模式,和目前的市场环境格格不入。因此,宝洁正在进行深度调整,越来越多的预算投入到互联网,以及加强和用户的互动,建立特殊的关系。而京东商城需要花费两亿多的央视广告投放后才明白这个道理,按照传统模式去做品牌,做营销已经变得很不经济。在经济景气时,尚可以通过规模效应来分摊成本。而目前经济形势越来越严峻,电商自觉不自觉地选取两节(双十一和“618”)来进行造势,但是这种模式也值得进一步商榷。

史玉柱在其最近出版的自传中,提出自己的商业原则之一就是不轻易降价。但是,中国企业似乎非常喜欢依靠投资驱动,上市后更是通过增发不断地进行投资,迷信可以靠更大的规模、更先进的设备和更低的价格压垮竞争对手。最近,亚马逊要入驻天猫,天猫、苏宁、易讯、国美、当当、亚马逊几乎有“六大门派围攻光明顶之势”,矛头不约而同地对准了京东。但我同意蒉莺春的观点,这是通往奴役之路。因为线下传统企业不惜血本打价格战后,依然发现谁也消灭不了对方,而是取得了“双输”的局面。具有讽刺意义的是,京东商城也是始作俑者。当当上市伊始,京东就对当当发起了价格战。野蛮成长几乎成为了中国一线企业的信条,但结局却不是皆大欢喜,而是个个有苦难言。

除了苏宁和易讯,现在电商还是普遍缺乏雄厚资金的。因此,价格战雷声大,雨点小,但也可能出现失控,互相死磕与血拼的局面。电商一旦处于投资驱动阶段,就变得身不由己,巨大的投资沉没成本需要给投资人交待,需要及早上市。这个时候,多数电商的注意力并不在代表着创新驱动的供应链管理、云计算、扁平化管理和品牌力等方面。而这些恰恰是走出价格战泥潭的关键。

首先,电商应该高度重视云计算。电子商务的本质是一种个性化商业,对应的是自媒体和更加精细化的分销。这和传统商业的大众化消费、电视媒体传播和粗放的分销体系有天壤之别。于是,在电视媒体投放广告从本质上不会为电商加分,因为没有带来真正用户体验的提升,钱没有用在刀刃上。适应个性化商业的要求,就意味着无论是用户还是电商都需要选择一种更加开放的态度,通过云计算平台以及大数据来降低用户和产品的“匹配成本”。最近邓文迪和默多克的离婚再次证明了“匹配成本”才是最高的成本,价值十亿美元。这不是一个极端的例子。电子商务不仅仅要保障低交易成本,更要保障低匹配成本,才能比线下具有更强的竞争力。而数据挖掘与云计算是两个层面的问题。云计算是一种真正的数据共享模式,也是一种更加开放的模式。由于安全和保密的原因,云计算已经是电子商务发展的一个隐性的瓶颈问题,也是电商必需克服的首要挑战。

其次,电商应该学会反营销。最近微信团队宣布微信不是一个营销工具,简直是石破天惊。有太多的利益团体希望借微信营销来获利,却遭遇当头一棒。但微信团队这样做确实是对的。这不仅仅是因为微信吸取了新浪微博的教训,牺牲短期利益而保障用户体验。更重要的原因是,未来的互联网要建立高信任度的环境,这里已隐含着反营销的原理。一个最简单的道理是,你会不会对你的亲人和朋友天天进行营销?在追女朋友的时候,可能会有某些营销行为,但一旦过日子,如果对老婆还天天营销的话就是找死。微信恰恰是这样一个类似小家庭的环境。在微信里,你会向比较信任的人公开自己,逐渐形成更强大的信任圈。信任圈即反营销。和反营销相对应的正是传统商业极高的营销成本,而反营销是一种完全不同于传统营销的模式,非常值得电商去探索。微博更加接近于传统营销,而微信有反营销的属性。正反皆用,妙处横生。而反营销一定能真正降低营销成本。

第三,电商应该越来越有节操。传统商业最喜欢做的一件事,就是通过塑造品牌来提高定价能力,获得超额利润。而电子商务一定要反其道行之,变得更加真实和可靠。事实上,只有极少数电商认识到节操也是一种竞争力。在社会信任度急剧下降的情况下,有节操变得越来越具有商业价值。但这绝不是一种战术,更不是追求利润最大化的另一种形式。发达国家的许多企业现在越来越追求合理的利润,形成细腻和紧密的社会化分工,开发出令人震撼的产品,并且职业道德以及流淌在他们的血液里。因此,很多出国考察的中国企业会感到自己在国内是老大,其实和国外同行的水平至少相差三十年。这才是有自知之明。节操的官方表述就是企业社会责任。但我宁愿通俗地使用这个词。因为节操也是非常个人化的东西。节操是由内而外形成的一种修养,再把修养转化为持久的行动和执行力。

节操已经不是一个技术性问题,而是人性和精神层面的问题。我也是最近才明白,为什么美国一些著名商学院把印度的《薄伽梵歌》作为必读书,认为它和《孙子兵法》一样重要。《薄伽梵歌》比《孙子兵法》要难读的多,我至今连一遍都没通读过。《薄伽梵歌》教的不是什么技巧,而是教一个人要静心和有节操。而我可以很负责任地说,很多人从小到大,直到工作二十多年,可能都没有人去教他静心。甚至所有的教育都是推崇急功近利,轻取速成。但是,做企业的规律确实一定要静心。静生定,定生慧。否则,打来打去,都是过客,都是浮云。


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