Tags: ,.

这个周末在思考一个问题,为什么阿里和京东都变得越来越封闭?这和平台经济的开放性不是背道而驰吗?

阿里的封闭性由来已久。阿里曾经封杀百度链接,对导购网站也一顿棒打,对微信丝毫不客气的关门,并且通过对新浪微博、高德等一系列并购,形成了一个封闭的商业生态系统。京东则中止了和新浪微博的合作,明确地选择易信而全面放弃了和腾讯的合作。

京东的封闭性则是一种危机感。首先,腾讯之所以引起京东的忌惮,很大原因是易讯攻势猛烈,已经杀到京东的大本营即北京市场。其次,京东商城面临苏宁易购、亚马逊的现实威胁,而阿里也在不断打压京东。京东从阿里抢商户不算太顺利,因为商户的迁移成本太高。第三,移动电商的趋势已经显而易见,京东商城和阿里都能感到,腾讯可能是一个潜在对手。而百度始终不放弃电商梦,并购糯米就是最近的例子。

现在还出现一种趋势,越来越多候补电商平台开始出现。最开始是万达,后来是银行电商、央视电商,接下来华为等一线企业也流露出做平台的意愿。顺丰拿到80亿融资,不可能只做物流,电商对资本来说是一个更好的故事。于是,新电商平台一个比一个骁勇,纷纷祭出免费策略争夺用户和商家。而阿里、京东等先发平台一个比一个封闭,多元竞争的结果不一定让消费者和电商受益,而可能更加纠结,全网营销变得更加复杂,因为时时刻刻面临“二选一”的游戏。最近看到微博中的一条评论:“电子商务缺乏线下零售人与人的接触,因此要求信用度更高,品牌调性更强,是更难做的生意”。平台之间的“神仙打架”会让电商经营受到干扰,本来“平台绑架电商”的情况就很严重,接下来销售节奏受平台影响可能更大。具有讽刺意义的是,阿里上市后,电商大战的均势不会发生质的改变。原因之一是阿里的互联网金融之梦动了线下银行及银联的奶酪,这些巨无霸可能全力支持其他电商平台和阿里竞争,电商平台大战可能是持久战啊。

怎么办?平台也痛苦,电商也痛苦,用户则处于审美疲劳的状态。这需要从深层次进行思考,IBM对软实力曾经提出了一个七力模型,之前,我仿造波特竞争力的五力模型也作出一个假说,即互联网经济的“五力模型”:

注意力经济(门户和微博)

影响力经济(郝芬顿邮报、知乎和钛媒体)

关系力经济(facebook和微信)

匹配力经济(谷歌和百度)

创新力经济(苹果)

最近,还注意到互联网经济未来将是是免费、众筹、付费的商业模式“三元组合”。用“五力模型”和“三元组合”去重新思考电子商务,会发现什么样的新思路呢?

电子商务的发展是以平台经济为核心进行展开的,对于平台经济的理论描述是“长尾理论”。长尾产品需要更多的注意力、更多的匹配力,而注意力和匹配力是要付费的。从某种角度看,阿里系的长尾超过了亚马逊,是平台经济的典范,但是注意力和匹配力成本也更高。阿里未来的变化,一定是打开封闭系统,让商家重新获得阿里系之外的免费流量。同时,下大力气追求正品化。这也要求阿里管理团队的升级。而上市融资为阿里进行这场变革创造了良好条件,只要资金充足,阿里可以做的事情很多。但阿里是否能成为重资产公司,物流、数据、金融、流量样样都第一。这需要海纳百川,马云退休对阿里的大平台梦不是一个好消息。

京东商城是正品长尾,面对阿里的挑战,逐渐选择了亦步亦趋的跟随策略,数据和金融方面进步很快,而流量则是一个瓶颈。京东的最佳选择本来是和腾讯合作,但是中国企业最喜欢做的一件事情,不是错位竞争,而是对位竞争。腾讯有了易讯,而京东也枪挑当当。于是出现了京东和网易的一个奇妙组合,假设再把搜狐等考虑进来,京东系的搜索引擎也会进一步加强。但是,京东和阿里的商业模式高度同质化,产品品类和苏宁同质化,物流体系和亚马逊同质化,京东商城的压力一点也不会减小。阿里和京东还会在生鲜电商上发力,现在1号店和顺丰优选都已经在生鲜物流上进行布局。京东的问题是,到处都是战斗,而它的盟友与小伙伴却没有阿里多。京东的优势是,马云退休了,而刘强东在一线指挥作战,京东内部的阿米巴经营也有了起色。

比较痛苦的是独立电商和区域化电商群体。在平台层已经完全无法和京东、阿里竞争。银泰网COO林琛提出了一个电商竞争模型,将电商分成平台层、零售层和媒体层,认为独立电商在平台层没有优势,在媒体层可以发力。这就涉及到“五力模型”中的影响力、关系力和创新力。我认为和长尾理论对应的不是短尾理论,而是“简海理论”。“简海理论”是蓝海理论的升级版,有以下几个特点:

1、标准品和非标品的混合经营。精选品类,构建快速供应链,尽量不和大平台经营相同的产品品类。

2、批发和零售的混合经营。多注意批发环节,和中低端市场的开发。然后再切入到零售环节。

3、建立众筹平台,扶持创意型电子商务。这是“简海理论”的核心。长尾理论的要害是,为了销售长尾产品,必需在电商基础设施建设上进行大量的投资,而“简海理论”以创新型经济为核心,追求产品品类的极简化和销售最大化,这样基础设施的压力更小,而批发经济和标准品作为一个扩大现金流的补充。

4、利用自媒体平台或自媒体联盟进行一次传播。利用微博和微信进行二次传播。记住《精益创业》提出的最小可行产品原则,将自媒体平台作为产品试销的通路,因为自媒体平台聚集着认知盈余和创新力最密集的人群,然后再利用达人经济在微博和微信进行二次传播。

5、利用电商社区,促进内部的知识管理。电子商务是知识密集型产业,这是电商和传统企业业最大的区别之一。传统企业在现金流上是正资产,在互联网知识上是负资产。电子商务行业发展需要大量的知识驱动,而且知识更新的速度非常快。电商产品的淘汰率会非常高,在极高淘汰率的基础上,才可能形成“简海产品”。

6、简海产品的商业模式比较复杂,融合了免费、众筹和付费三大模式。而长尾产品的商业模式相对简单,是简单的买卖关系。而简海产品是知识创新、流程创新、营销创新等连续的过程。依托大数据做全网营销,这是一个说起来很容易,做起来很难的事情。简海产品首先要找到蓝海,其次要在蓝海的基础上进行不断优化,最后集中到少数产品。简海产品也是围绕少数用户的核心需求构建的价值链。因为涉及商业秘密,这里不举案例。但是几个核心需求之间必需有相关性,然后密集配置企业资源,形成稳固的阵地。少数几个核心需求,谓之简;而核心需求具有爆发性,谓之海。

长尾产品有长尾产品的生命力,简海产品有简海产品的生命力。但严格地说,互联网产品的特质就是精准打击,长尾产品则显得不够精准,不够创新。但我也同意HTC创始人王雪红的话,创新是有成本的。不是每个用户都能享用最先进、最时尚的产品。对于我们这个发展中国家,长尾产品仍有很大的市场。但是,电子商务需要更多的商业模型,才能是一种良性竞争。

—————

iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@qq.com。


42条评论

  1. Major thanks for the blog.Thanks Again. Really Cool.

  2. Google…

    Here are a number of the internet sites we advise for our visitors….

  3. The facts talked about in the article are a number of the most effective accessible

  4. lettings agent farnham…

    [...]the time to read or take a look at the material or web pages we’ve linked to below the[...]…

  5. Commission Buddy…

    [...]very couple of internet websites that occur to be comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly nicely worth checking out[...]…

  6. canadian controlled goods…

    [...]below you’ll locate the link to some web-sites that we feel it is best to visit[...]…

  7. Lægeservice…

    [...]the time to read or visit the content or websites we have linked to beneath the[...]…

  8. san antonio seo…

    [...]please pay a visit to the sites we comply with, like this one, as it represents our picks in the web[...]…

  9. car games…

    [...]very few internet websites that take place to become detailed beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly properly really worth checking out[...]…

  10. visit website…

    [...]Every as soon as in a although we opt for blogs that we read. Listed below are the most current sites that we decide on [...]…

  11. american poker 2 gratis spielen…

    [...]just beneath, are several entirely not related web-sites to ours, however, they may be surely really worth going over[...]…

  12. online games…

    [...]we came across a cool site that you may well get pleasure from. Take a look should you want[...]…

  13. high voltage capacitors…

    [...]Here are several of the websites we advise for our visitors[...]…

  14. sites de rencontre gratuit en belgique…

    [...]usually posts some very fascinating stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]…

  15. come fare soldi con la borsa…

    [...]just beneath, are a lot of absolutely not connected web pages to ours, even so, they may be surely worth going over[...]…

  16. Opt-in Email Lists http://www.optindatalist.com...

    [...]below you’ll uncover the link to some sites that we believe you need to visit[...]…

  17. upart wig…

    [...]although websites we backlink to below are considerably not connected to ours, we really feel they are actually worth a go through, so have a look[...]…

  18. vLnrso Thanks a lot for the blog article.Really looking forward to read more. Keep writing.

  19. vps hosting…

    [...]we like to honor several other world wide web websites on the web, even though they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Below are some webpages really worth checking out[...]…

  20. klinik kecantikan terbaik…

    [...]just beneath, are several absolutely not connected web sites to ours, having said that, they may be surely really worth going over[...]…

  21. shelbyville illinois appliance service…

    [...]The info mentioned within the article are some of the best available [...]…

  22. roulette blog…

    [...]the time to study or go to the subject material or websites we’ve linked to beneath the[...]…

  23. industrial equipment…

    [...]just beneath, are many completely not connected internet sites to ours, nonetheless, they may be surely really worth going over[...]…

  24. whitesand tourist services…

    [...]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we feel they are in fact worth a go by means of, so have a look[...]…

  25. website design grand rapids mi…

    [...]always a significant fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a great deal of link like from[...]…

  26. DWL6o1 udcfzgqnalky, [url=http://ygrnunpiwgpn.com/]ygrnunpiwgpn[/url], [link=http://xgyfdqdytmou.com/]xgyfdqdytmou[/link], http://tpsyezmonltt.com/

  27. book of ra entfernen…

    [...]here are some links to web pages that we link to mainly because we consider they are worth visiting[...]…

  28. weight gain…

    [...]The info talked about inside the article are some of the most beneficial offered [...]…

  29. iq test online…

    [...]Here are some of the web pages we advocate for our visitors[...]…

  30. Hoodia…

    [...]check below, are some completely unrelated websites to ours, on the other hand, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]…

  31. disease…

    [...]we came across a cool site that you may possibly take pleasure in. Take a search should you want[...]…

  32. 6 figure toolkit scam…

    [...]although websites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we really feel they’re in fact worth a go through, so possess a look[...]…

  33. i wish to have are banner exchange…

    [...]Every the moment in a while we pick blogs that we study. Listed beneath would be the newest internet sites that we opt for [...]…

  34. Quantenheilung Otterberg…

    [...]although internet sites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we feel they’re basically really worth a go via, so have a look[...]…

  35. form a singapore company…

    [...]always a large fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but do not get a whole lot of link adore from[...]…

  36. Make animation in Singapore…

    [...]below you will find the link to some web sites that we feel it is best to visit[...]…

  37. First Communion Favors…

    [...]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated data, nonetheless really worth taking a search, whoa did one particular master about Mid East has got more problerms too [...]…

  38. рыбалка нахлыстом…

    [...]here are some hyperlinks to internet sites that we link to mainly because we consider they may be really worth visiting[...]…

  39. news channels…

    [...]please go to the websites we stick to, like this one, because it represents our picks from the web[...]…

  40. Marcos…

    [...]here are some links to internet sites that we link to for the reason that we assume they are really worth visiting[...]…

  41. get rid tattoo naturally…

    [...]please pay a visit to the internet sites we adhere to, like this a single, because it represents our picks in the web[...]…

  42. video game hints and tips…

    [...]we came across a cool website which you could enjoy. Take a search should you want[...]…

发表评论

评论也有版权!

无觅相关文章插件