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2012最风光的移动app,陌陌应当属其一。用户数千万,融资千万美金。约炮营销无孔不入,一时间被各类媒介奉为“约炮神器”。人性深处深渊之一就是色欲,只要沾上这个,产品没有不火的道理,君不见各种色情网站压根不用营销都是大伙急哄哄的找着去,怎么付费都在所不惜。

悲催的是,色欲的产品始终上不了大道,过度的约炮营销使陌陌变成了烙上了色欲产品的标签,无法抹去。陌陌3.0来了个大转弯,约炮都变成敏感词了,曾经骚的过火三版女郎,突然要从良变成端庄正经的良家妇女,这种转变谈何容易。三观都碎了一地。

陌陌的发展几乎可以说追随了当年QQ的神迹,不过时代完全不一样了。QQ刚起来的时候,有一本流行小说对QQ发展的贡献功不可没,那就是流行一时的《第一次亲密接触》,这本网恋小说红遍大江南北,给无数屌丝男青年一个寻找“轻舞飞扬”的美梦。QQ在当时正处于发端期,借着陌生人交友的神风迅速摧城拔寨,各地乡镇网吧的荷尔蒙过剩的无聊青少年们每天QQ上搜寻异性朋友。马化腾一边为用户暴涨而高兴,一边为不断瘫痪的服务器忧心忡忡,烧钱烧的面露菜色都撑不下去,几乎要以百万的价格卖出。可惜当年大佬们看不上这个小企鹅,眼睁睁的看着QQ一路达到市值千亿的规模。

陌陌抓住了移动互联网发端的机会,更投机更情色,直接抛出“约炮”营销,装上了陌陌,仿佛已经触摸到姑娘的蕾丝花边。其中的运营技巧就不说了,有个案例。

我有一傻哥们,纯技术宅男屌丝,一日兴冲冲地对我说,用陌陌了,上面N多美女,论坛上说的还挺靠谱的。一段时间后,哥们愁眉苦脸,问我有无搭讪技巧,上面的美女要不就是不理睬,要不就是一两句敷衍。我只好安慰这哥们,“这上面的美女是人,还是机器呢,或者说是真人机器呢,你自己想吧,哪有这么多饥渴怨妇。”他似乎有所悟,释然而去。做社交类的产品,谁不用机器人呢,产品起来了才是硬道理。

当然,不能否认,当一个应用起势后,很多真人会加入,这是滚雪球效应。互联网有句营销的名句“在虚张声势中高歌前进”,小米也很擅长这种营销。几分钟买了几十万台,这气氛造的,让用户不用都觉得不好意思在互联网混。

现实是无情的,用户会用脚投票。不管怎么营造各种约炮神话软文,这种神话终究是要破灭的,用户也不是傻子。陌陌的活跃度在营销高潮中逐渐下降,从而到了必须转型的边缘,当然这里面也有过度色情营销带来的政策风险。于是我们看到了一本正经的陌陌3.0,还有“不排除陌陌改名”的各种可能。QQ是无法复制的,陌陌没有选择IM这条道,我认为是非常明智的,IM是腾讯的大本营,这么多年只有微薄以媒体的形态稍稍撼动了一下QQ,马上就被微信打回去了。做IM,死路一条。

陌陌经过了一段野蛮生长期后,进入了青春期,激情仍在,不过看上去很迷茫,不知道方向在哪。陌陌3.0没有新鲜的产品形态,而是烈士遍地的LBS兴趣社区交友。如果你在三年前就开始玩移动互联网,就知道三年前就有类似的产品,比如邻讯。

邻讯是典型的LBS兴趣社区交友,也有周边饭馆点评这种路数,当时铺天盖地还做了一阵子广告,号称千万用户,活跃的群组大部分是各地的各种“色狼怨妇”,在运营了一段时间后,邻讯死亡(最近又回魂了,但和没回魂一样),死因有多种,急功近利、产品臃肿、烧钱过猛、体验极差,多种原因可以归结为一点,没有互联网基因。但是有互联网基因就一定有用吗,后来林林总总的各类产品诸如颇有名气的街旁、嘀咕、开开等等都是昙花一现,没有名气那就更多了,毫不夸张地说,无名尸成百上千。

LBS交友和LBS约炮是两个概念,约炮是刚性需求,交友绝对不是。位置交友,最成功的是各个大小社区网。比如像望京网这样区域性很强的小网站,用户不多,但相当活跃,能活下去,上市就别想了,全卖了也没几个钱。这样的社区网其实是小型的社区媒体,尽管也有交友的功能,更多的是小区内的各种鸡毛小事,什么小区热水停了、哪个路口红绿灯坏了,超市在送鸡蛋促销什么的,交友主要是邻里街坊在上面约个乒乓球、羽毛球打打,也有征婚的,但都正儿八经。

位置维度很重要,在移动互联网产品里面,我认为以后会是标配,但位置不是人交往的中心维度,以位置维度获取资讯比交友靠谱多了。大小的社区网站就不多说了。这点,大众点评已经玩的很转了。

新陌陌里面也掺杂了大众点评和豆瓣的玩法,似乎还比大众点评多了一层社交的维度,比豆瓣多了一层LBS维度。听上去好像不错,但是往往承载过度信息的臃肿产品都很难找到突破点,貌似什么都能做,其实什么都做不成,用户也凌乱,到底这干嘛的。阿里巴巴投资陌陌,是否也有塑造另一个别样的大众点评的想法呢?时间可能会有答案。

QQ无法复制,大众点评也无法复制,豆瓣更是想都别想,此一时彼一时。如果陌陌不能拿出一些新技术和新体验的产品,这样的3.0形态是令人失望的。还好,陌陌还有时间,而且还有钱,以约炮营销的智慧来打造一个新产品,并非没有期待,只不过现在的产品是完全没有机会的。


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