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文/非DoNews社区作者 李云

一两年前你问电商,规模和盈利哪个重要,可能会被鄙视。电商会告诉你,有规模就有未来。这种以空间换时间的逻辑从理论上确实成立。可现实呢?说好的未来呢?

今年你再去问电商——综合电商也好,垂直电商也罢——他们都会告诉你:活着比什么都重要。除了京东这样的“规模论死忠派”以外,电商们一年之后都打了自己一个响亮的耳光。即使是京东,刘强东也在今年的派代年会上告诫刚起步的创业者,不要做以资金和规模取胜的平台电商。凡客就更不用提了,陈年(微博)去年年底就悲壮地喊出这句话:挺住意味着一切。

为什么有规模就有未来在实际中很难实现?

第一,规模需要靠钱来砸,而资本有限且没有那么好的耐心。从技术和资金的角度来看,电商并不是一个高门槛的行业。这意味着一个企业可能会面临前赴后继的竞争者。一家电商今天刚用价格战把某个竞争对手消灭掉并且实现一定程度的垄断,明天新的竞争对手看到机会又带着满荷包的钱进场了。两年多的时间里,电商热潮来的太快,光倒闭的团购网站就将近3000家。去年下半年,风投和VC还在到处找好的电商项目布局,如今已是绕着电商走。投资方没有那么好的耐心看着别人烧自己的钱。

第二,国内的网购用户价格敏感特征太强,忠诚度低。《2011年中国网络购物市场研究报告》显示,国内电商中,用户忠诚度最高的仍是以低价取胜的淘宝网,意味着影响中国网购用户决策的最重要因素仍是价格。也许规模对电商来说并不是没有意义,因为毕竟规模大的企业往往品牌知名度和形象分也比较高,对于用户来说有一定吸引力。不过,举个例子,同一台Macbook Air,卓越亚马逊(微博)上标价6666,京东上标价7399,你选哪一个?按宣称销售额算,京东商城(微博)的规模可是亚马逊的近3倍哦。

电商是用规模论来为自己的浮躁冒进和思维惰性开脱的。不过,打肿脸充胖子,很累的。

======带个自私自利的小AD=========

欢迎向DoNews投递关于互联网业界的热点类、观点类、趣点类、分析类、爆料类稿件。地址:tougao@donews.com

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