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iDoNews 小牛注:雅虎卖出阿里巴巴,换来了Tumblr和Hulu,美国评论家急着为雅虎捶胸顿足,PingWest联合创始人骆轶航却认为,“卖出阿里巴巴,是卖出资本包袱和泡沫;买入Tumblr和Hulu,是买入流量和可以被重新改变的新产品”。

启动了收购引擎的雅虎让全世界瞠目:11亿美元收购轻博客平台Tumblr之后,雅虎又开出了6-8亿美元的价格试图收购在线视频点播网站Hulu。我昨天写文章说过,真正优质的收购是那些针对人才和技术的轻量级收购,这方面雅虎在之前已经做过很多了,但它毕竟不同于Google、Facebook和亚马逊,在新一轮竞争中找不到明显优势的雅虎,必须收购一些流量和用户,所以,Tumblr和Hulu对雅虎的意义,可能比对Google和亚马逊更重要。

这就引发了另一个关键的问题:雅虎一笔笔眼睛都不眨一下的收购,钱是从哪里来的?除了已有的50多亿美元现金之外,中国的互联网集团阿里巴巴还赎回了雅虎所持有的价值8.38亿美元的优先股,目前雅虎所持阿里巴巴的股份只剩下24%。

卖出阿里巴巴,买入Tumblr和Hulu,就是这件事背后最简单的逻辑。这是一笔划算的交易么?

我们还没说什么呢?已经有美国的“评论家”为雅虎捶胸顿足了。Bloomberg的记者Alex Bruns几天前发文章评论雅虎为了买入Tumblr和Hulu而卖出阿里巴巴的股票是一个巨大的错误。他还罗列了一系列事实:中国至少有5.12亿互联网用户,它们当中有一半从事过电子商务交易,交易额超过2000亿美元,而它们中的90%是通过阿里巴巴旗下的平台完成的。

最后,Alex Bruns甚至将雅虎卖出阿里巴巴的股份与2002年雅虎错过50亿美元收购Google的机会相提并论。他说:10年过去了,这两个决定的糟糕程度几乎是一致的。

这是在雅虎马不停蹄的一系列收购之后我看到的最替雅虎和玛丽莎 梅耶尔(Marrisa Mayer)本人操碎了心的文章。而且文章中有一个显而易见的逻辑错误:2002年的Google,相比起来更像是今天的Tumblr(Hulu不算),而并不像是今天的阿里巴巴。如果说当年错过50亿美元收购Google是错的,那今天花11亿美元收购Tumblr,当然就是对的。

不是么?2002年的Google刚推出关键字广告技术不久,公司还没开始盈利,两位创始人不情愿地接受了关键字广告的商业模式,但仍担心它过去侵入人们的搜索体验。另一方面,它已经成为一家被人们欢迎的,且充满未来各种可能性的公司。这与Tumblr现在的状态和其相似:Tumblr上有500多亿条用户生成的内容,且受到年轻用户的欢迎。而它的创始人David Karp也在纠结于广告的侵入如何不破坏页面本身的体验——当然它还没有更好的办法。

有所不同的是:Tumblr的野心和格局可能并不像Google那么大,运气也不像Google那么好。但有一点是可以确定的:2002年的Google和2013年的Tumblr都是有更多可能性和想象力的公司。雅虎当年要收购的,从来都不是2013年这个庞大的Google。

同样,卖出阿里巴巴的股票也是正确的选择。过去的7年,雅虎从来没从阿里巴巴身上占到任何便宜。尤其是在以VIE架构之名的支付宝被阿里巴巴乾坤挪移之后,任何人都应该清楚,阿里巴巴集团在中国电子商务和本地生活领域的支配地位,已经成为这家公司的核心利益,其它的玩家已经彻底没有了置喙的余地——无论是孙正义的软银,还是梅耶尔治下的雅虎。

更显而易见的是,当前的雅虎正在转变为一家技术公司,它的一切投资与并购都是以获得领先的人才、技术储备和创新的产品形态为核心。这是雅虎一系列收购的动因。尽管雅虎的股价最近的走势很漂亮,但雅虎并不是在讲一个单纯的资本故事。而当年雅虎投资阿里巴巴,甚至成为占有阿里巴巴40%股份的大股东,除了帮阿里巴巴在2007年的上市讲了一个资本故事之外,就再也没真正获得过任何实际的益处——哪怕是从股价上。

卖出阿里巴巴,是卖出资本包袱和泡沫;拿现金,断残念,绝后患。买入Tumblr和Hulu,是买入流量和可以被重新改变的新产品。雅虎错了吗?一点都没有。

人不能两次踏入同一条河流,美国的媒体同行就别被阿里巴巴卖了还帮人家数钱了。


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