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得益于芯片工业的进步,电子产品体积更小、性能更强、功能更多。自 iPhone 开启所谓智能手机新时代之后,似乎与我们的数字生活有关的全部功能都集成进了手机中。看看刚刚发布的 Galaxy S IV,众多的传感器——光、加速度、陀螺仪、罗盘、气压、温度、湿度——能够实现众多的功能,同时这也是“手机”这类设备的趋势。

电源是移动设备的软肋。未来的电池中,锂空气燃料电池这样的大功率电源又不适合手机的高容量需求,太阳能电池小型化困难,成本高,满足手机需要的电力储存效率又过低。目前在移动设备上使用的锂离子已经没有什么可以压榨的空间,仅能通过增加体积这样无法兼顾轻薄的方式扩充容量。

或者可以通过新工艺来减低功耗,减少损耗。使用尺寸更小的芯片制程可以减小功耗。半导体芯片上晶体管的特征尺寸,也就是所谓的制程,小于某个极限后,电子的运动会出现量子效应——比如在结处发生的隧穿——不再以经典方式运动,无法用麦克斯韦方程计算。虽然目前已经突破当初预言的极限,但极限依然存在。同时,提高制程带来的经济效益也越来越低。

材料方面,使用硅之外的芯片材料锗(Ge)或三五族(III-V)元素材料是目前研究的方向。使用锗和三五族元素能够有效改善晶体通道的电子迁移率,能够有效减小热损耗。但是,虽然目前已经造出了新材料的芯片,但实际上确是“机缘巧合”:我们知道怎么造得出来,却不知道为什么能造得出来。

移动设备的功能越来越多,界面越来越复杂,在一大堆图标里面寻找想要的功能是一个越来越耗神的工作。同时,运行某些功能。比如运动监测、查看短信、摄录像,其实是在消耗不需要的性能和电力。GigaOM 的文章认为,将这些集成在一起的功能再次分散开会是随身设备下一步进化的方向。

比如 Google Glass,Pebble Watch,Fitbit 之类的设备就是趋势。它们能提供更简单、更直接的用户界面进行拍照、导航、运动监测或是查看短信、控制音乐播放等等类似功能。分散开的电池在这些不需要太高性能的设备上续航时间也更长。

GigoOM 认为这样的趋势现在突显,是因为通信接口完成了标准化。早年间,组件之间的接口不明确时,垂直整合的产品往往做的非更好。比如 Mac。同样的,当苹果六年前推出 iPhone 时,智能手机产业正处在早期阶段,垂直整合的 iPhone 优势尽显。然而现在,诸如 Wi-Fi,蓝牙等通用接口已经臻于成熟,各种外设都能够非常简单的与作为中心的智能设备通信。

但文章同时认为,垂直整合还是拥有优势,比如传说中的 iWatch,假如运行 iOS 的话,相比会比 Pebble Watch提供更多更丰富的功能。

但是其实上述所谓“分散功能”,并不是什么新概念和新趋势,就是云计算和瘦客户端的变形。随时随地的公有云计算还未实现,作为中心的智能手机就是个人“云计算”中心。分散开的眼镜,手镯之类的设备就是普适计算的未完成形态。只是在真正的云计算和电池问题解决之前,别忘记给这些一大堆设备充电。


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