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微信游戏即将上线是这两天最热闹的话题之一,虽然我相信只要游戏上线,腾讯很快就能从中获取收益,但我并不认为这种模式能够承载腾讯的整个移动战略。

我们看到,它失去了传统互联网上的霸主地位——单从分发渠道的角度来看,拥有3亿用户的微信并不比拥有2.5亿用户的360手机卫士、4亿用户的UC浏览器要强大多少,加上豌豆荚、安智这些主流的第三方平台,使得微信在移动终端上的地位与PC时代的腾讯相去甚远。

与它们相比,微信最大的优势是它天然的社交关系,以此能够激发用户之间的相互推广,提升用户黏度并促进虚拟礼品的销售,这与LINE和Kakao Talk的成功模式完全一样。实际上,不仅是做社交游戏平台的理念相同,就连游戏类型也是十分相似的。游戏业务即将开放给腾讯自己旗下的腾讯琳琅天上工作室,它的总经理姚晓光说:“与微信在用户关系链有一些合作,主要考量屏幕大小、游戏时间碎片化、情节连续性、对手机关系链的利用等标准,与其他公司iOS或者Android平台的游戏没什么差别,与目前大家所理解和期待的微信游戏,可能离的比较远”。

无论你对这段话怎么理解,我想至少说明微信要学着LINE和Kakao Talk中,依着快节奏、用户排名竞争、目标驱动的休闲类游戏的葫芦画瓢了,这几天曝出的谍照也说明了这一点。

可你会发现,在中国市场,这种休闲类游戏并不是最讨喜的——在中国的收入排行榜前列,清一色的是大掌门、龙之力量、我叫MT Online、神仙道等重计费的网络游戏,轻度社交游戏在中国市场的盈利能力还有待检验。另外,去年腾讯全年的游戏收入为228.5亿元,平均单月为20亿人民币,而我们看到Kakao Talk在去年10月拿到2亿3000万人民币,这已经够惊人了,在ARPU值更低的中国的互联网环境下,微信要想达到PC端的收益水准,还有很长的路要走。

当然,微信绝对可以考虑成为一个开放平台(虽然暂时没有,但我相信它必定会这么做的),从与开发者的分成获得中收益,不过正如我们所说,因为渠道优势锐减使得这个平台的不可控性大增,同时参照Fackbook去年6亿美元的游戏收入(当然,Facebook的重心一直在广告上)和各大移动社交游戏平台的现状来看,微信究竟能做到什么程度还不得而知。

所以我想说的是——腾讯通过微信杀入移动游戏市场,一旦平台开放,其渠道能力将直接冲击现有的游戏平台,但它暂时并不涉足中国市场最赚钱的游戏领域,也远没有PC时代那么大的的杀伤力,而它自身,却是任重道远。

作者: 陈粲然


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