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文/创见作者 SugarCHH

我认为对于一个尚未成熟且还未被大众市场普遍接受的品牌来说,Windows Phone 的早期表现对今后的产品推广与发展至关重要。此外,芬兰巨头诺基亚若指望Windows Phone OS 能够助其翻身,就必须牢牢抓住早期消费者的心。

虽然诺基亚在走向衰落,但有一点不可否认的是,这家在过去数年曾稳固统治移动电话市场的昔日霸主仍然拥有相当程度的影响力。尽管以三星和苹果为代表的制造商已超越诺基亚成功上位,但后者在一些市场仍然保留了强势竞争力和用户忠诚度。但问题是:诺基亚如何才能够既抓住现有忠诚用户的心继续推陈出新,又如何抢夺其他对手的市场份额?显然,自埃洛普起誓绝不与谷歌阵营结盟的那一刻起,诺基亚的命运就已被和微软紧紧联系在了一起。因此即便诺基亚幡然悔悟,通过与Android的合作也已无济于事。三星凭借与谷歌的合作成为了第一大智能手机制造商,而这也为其与微软的谈判提供了相当可靠的筹码。至此,诺基亚当初以一纸契约“嫁入”微软的美好“皇室独享梦想”破灭,因为Windows Phone操作系统更可能依靠韩国巨头崛起。

诺基亚坚如磐石的品质是众所周知的,而且这点是该公司仅剩的耀点。所以这次故障的由来值得深究,因为无论是诺基亚还是HTC此前都未遭遇过这么重大的问题。倘若问题真的发生在微软身上,那么那些已经/打算推出Windows Phone OS 设备的厂商是否会三思而后行?以此防止自己的品牌信誉度受到影响。一旦这些厂商反悔,那么Windows Phone 生态会遭致何种损失?这都是我们亟需探讨的问题。

我首先会与读者讨论第一个问题:诺基亚处境如何,又该如何应对?

我曾在文章中,指出黑莓如果想在如今竞争惨烈的移动设备市场留存一处容身之地的话,这家公司就需要反其道而行之。RIM无需考虑加入谷歌或者微软阵营的战略合作,因为这两个阵营的参与者本身就已经处于水深火热中。该篇文章指出“RIM保持本质但同时加速创新”将是这家加拿大公司的唯一出路。

如今的诺基亚似乎也面临着相同的问题。进退两难的诺基亚深陷于与微软合作的魔咒中,正如我在前文中提出的一样,Android早已无法挽救垂死的诺基亚,因为无论是强势的三星还是谷歌自己甚至一干新生力量的崛起都已让这家昔日巨头的地位变得无足轻重。另一方面,在微软宣布与三星等厂商建立合作关系后,微软似乎有意将Android的成功模式复制到Windows Phone生态中。起早加入Windows Phone平台的诺基亚的优势已然褪去,若诺基亚想要自救,可能会需要创造出另一个大受欢迎的生态系统;但显然这种假设在iOS,Android以及Windows Phone OS甚至黑莓的包围中变得渺小甚至不可预见,因为市场难以再容纳下另一股力量的斗争。诺基亚想要依靠Windows Phone 生态的梦想破灭,又错失了Android大势崛起时有限的美好时光,这家曾被光环环绕的巨头现在只能够苟延残喘,然后等待合适的时机被其他巨头收购。

那么,倘若这些问题真出在微软身上,我个人相信前文中提到的“蝴蝶效应”就有极大的可能发生。

虽然与苹果的专利官司会迫使三星逐渐向微软靠拢,但考虑到Windows Phone 仍然是一个稍显稚嫩的平台,因此短期来看,Android仍然是三星发力的主要依靠。此外,随着未来移动市场潜力的疾增趋势愈发明显,谷歌肯定会竭力保护这一生态系统不会遭到外界的破坏。因此,当Windows Phone系统因遭遇一系列无厘头的问题而遭致非议时,不光谷歌等对手会暗自庆幸,这些问题还会对未来潜在的消费市场会造成严重的干扰。一旦三星等厂商意识到这些问题,那么他们必定会保留本欲施展的招式,而Windows Phone 生态系统可能会在早期成长阶段遭致巨大损失,并为未来的发展埋下隐患,甚至令微软为将来制订的计划夭折。

因此,微软在此事件上的态度无论对合作伙伴还是自身来说都非常重要,能否及时作出回应并提出可靠的解决方案不仅可能会安抚那部分受损用户的心,还可能吸引更多潜在的消费者并增持市场份额。

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