iDoNews 小牛注:手机战场是个没有尽头的马拉松,它不断考验着运营商对产业链的主导能力,也不断地考验着自身品牌所带来的价值。因此剩者为王才手机战场的最终目标

他们都是今年目标出货量 5000万台以上的国产手机大厂,他们都是国内电信运营商渠道的“宠儿”,他们占据了国内智能手机近 4成的市场份额,他们被业内称之为“中华酷联”阵营。

本文将讨论在向高端品牌和国际市场迈进、3G向4G产业升级的关键时期,国产大型手机厂商所遇到的集体焦虑和主要问题。其中诸多从业者不同角度的解读,值得思考和关注。

华为终端

华为终端今年目标智能手机全球出货量6000万部,营收90亿美元。今年前两个季度,华为智能手机分别发货约 1000万部、1114 万部,营收 43亿美元,从目前情况看,全年完成任务压力不大。

华为终端的野心不止于此。6月18 日华为在伦敦发布了年度旗舰智能手机 Ascend P6,这款售价449 欧元(国内定价 2688元)的华为品牌手机目标 12个月内全球销量要达1000万台,而在此之前,华为高端机型销售并不如意。两周之后,华为终端又宣布前诺基亚执行副总裁赵科林加盟,赵科林目前已被正式任命为华为终端全球CMO,主要负责全球市场营销和社会公开渠道销售。

华为终端的问题曾于2012年集中爆发,未来一年内还将面临三大问题:

1、领导层轮岗。华为终端未来最大的变动在于领导层轮岗。一名华为终端内部人员对笔者表示:“从 2011年到现在,副总以上级别每年都有更迭,很多中层位置更是换了两茬人。现在内部最担心的是余总会不会年底左右轮岗”。

余承东于 2010年底加盟华为终端,已近三年,而华为内部有三年一轮刚的惯例。“不过随着 CEO万飚提前轮岗去俄罗斯片区,这一可能性正在变小。余总近三年带领华为终端一年一个变化,总部也看得到,并且同时更换董事长与CEO也不利于业务稳定”,一名华为终端中层对笔者称。

华为终端副总裁邵洋对笔者表示,通过“两进(赵科林、刘江峰)一出(万飚)”,华为终端目前的管理结构已经稳定和优化,分工明确,现在是华为终端最好的时期”。

据悉,营收、盈利、P6等高端产品销售,是余承东今年三大考核任务,从目前情况看,营收与盈利已不是问题, P6销售就成了唯一“变数”。

2、高端产品“蹚路”。“你来到这个舞台,最大的梦想是什么?”如果Copy《中国好声音》汪峰的问题,华为终端人一定会说“知名消费品牌”这几个字。

对于 OEM出身的华为终端来说,如何从产品设计、供应链、操盘节奏、市场营销、三大渠道销售,以及平衡 2500元以上价位与出货量,蹚出一条可供后续参考的高端产品操盘案例,是华为终端近 3年都在思考但又屡屡碰壁的问题。而 Ascend P6是最接近成功的一次。

余承东曾在伦敦 P6发布会后对笔者透露,Ascend P6目标在 12个月内全球销量达1000万部,国内市场占比约 600万台,其中社会公开渠道目标销售 30%,电商渠道10% ,运营商渠道占比 60%。

据业内人士透露, P6手机在国内运营商渠道销量不错,仅中国移动渠道单月销量就超过 10万台,不过公开社会渠道和电商渠道目前未达预期。

3、中国区操盘。中国市场是华为终端最大的单一市场,销售占比约 40%,旗舰产品更是占比超50%。不过从 2011年的旗舰手机Honor(荣耀)、 2012年的P1/D1 ,今年的D2,其高端产品操盘能力一直备受考验。

“中国是全球竞争最激烈的手机市场,联想中兴等厂商频频发起价格战。同时运营商3G制式、社会渠道返点情况都很复杂,华为终端中国区三大渠道之间需要重新理顺。”一名华为终端中国区员工对笔者表示。

华为终端中国区 CMO杨柘曾对笔者表示,中国区正围绕P6进行近亿元的品牌营销活动,包括线上与线下投放,社会渠道拓展下半年也会有较大变化。从P6开始,华为终端中国区操盘能力将有明显改善。

中兴手机

中兴手机曾经是华为终端学习的榜样,华为公司创始人任正非曾在 2010年12 月内部讲话中称赞了中兴负责手机业务的执行副总裁何士友“很多方面都是好的”。不过从2011年开始,华为与中兴在手机业务方面的领跑位置逐渐更迭。

1、传统B2B架构。“中兴手机用了 15年从小孩变成一个成年人,目前集团还是以 B2B为主,手机业务的投入和贡献不成正比,中兴手机发展最大的阻力来自内部。”今年4月,何士友在接受笔者专访时突然对公司B2B构架“开炮”。

中兴内部人员对笔者表示:“中兴 2012年B2B 业务遭遇巨亏,从而影响到 B2C手机业务的投入,年初领导层的变化也是手机业务最好的变革时期。但是可惜何总的公开喊话并未受到预期,并引起了几个 VP的不满,中兴手机近3年内再次谋求”独立”的最好机遇已失”。

不过何士友“开炮”的举动还是引起了变化:中兴副总裁侯正之调任手机业务线,负责品牌和互联网业务;董事长侯为贵也承诺将加大手机业务投入。

同时,中兴手机国内业务也计划调整,成立统一的手机中国区,原负责 TD手机产品线的公司副总裁王勇或出任中国区总经理,向何士友与中兴中国区总裁曾学忠双向汇报。原来困扰手机业务发展的 CDMA/TD/WCDMA三条线分离经营的状况有望重新整合。

2、品牌与营销。中兴手机近些年并不缺乏好的产品,如今年推出的旗舰产品 Grand S、Grand Memo,但直到产品发布半年后还没有产品大规模投放市场,品牌营销整个上半年更是乏善可陈。

某中兴手机中国区操盘人士对笔者抱怨称:“两款产品在发布三个月后还是没有到货,超过 20万以上的市场营销费用也很难审批下来,很多中层习惯了 B2C思维,只是为了完成自己的年度销售任务,并不看好自己的高端产品和定价策略,这是中兴手机在高端产品和市场营销方面遇到的致命问题。”

中兴高级副总裁曾学忠对此表示,传统 B2B人员的思维必须转变,考核方式也将变化,同时加大外来员工的引入。今年第三季度中兴手机将开展一系列品牌营销活动,包括体育营销、互联网营销、影视剧营销,同时投入 1亿元的线下渠道拓展也将配合上述营销活动。

酷派

2010年之前,酷派曾凭借Windows CE系统成为 CDMA智能手机高端品牌,但随着华为、中兴、联想在国内市场发力,以及三星等国际品牌产品价格区间下探,酷派手机被迫向千元智能手机迅速转型,目前单机平均售价已低于 600元。

根据酷派公开财报,2012年上半年,宇龙酷派手机平均单价为 733.7港元(约合人民币601元),这也是酷派近期最后一次公布单机出货均价。

1、家族化管理。从 2012年至今,酷派中高层剧烈动荡,如原负责销售的常务副总裁李旺工作职责由外转内,负责品牌的副总裁苏峰离职,原 TD和CDMA 运营商销售团队被TCL、华为等竞争对手大量挖走。

一名酷派中层对笔者表示,董事长郭德英对公司产品研发、销售、渠道、品牌等管理过紧,内审则由郭总的家人亲自负责,即使创业老臣权限也收到严格限制,并且经常职位调动,信任度不够,激励不足。

“我们从一名普通员工,跟随郭总创业至今,感谢酷派给了我们目前的经历和地位,但随着酷派业务迅速增长,大家并没有获得相等的收益,这也是兄弟们纷纷离去的原因”,一名已离职的酷派中层在与笔者聊天中仍唏嘘不已。

2、产品线单一。与华为、酷派、联想,甚至TCL等竞争对手相比,酷派只做手机业务产品线太单一,扛风险能力较弱。

联想手机目前仍处于亏损平衡点,中兴与华为手机业务也是微利,不过在渠道、品牌上的投入仍不遗余力。相比较而言,酷派手机业务盈利能力还不错,其 2012年全年净利约3.3亿港元,同比增长 20%。

不过据酷派内部员工吐槽称,相比中兴华为,酷派的净利真是“从牙齿上刮出来的”,如员工办公电脑已多年未更换,出差规定只能买 7折的机票,以从深圳到北京航班为例,员工一般只能从深圳飞到天津,再转高铁,或者自己掏钱补足剩余部分。

酷派“内部挖潜”的作法还影响了研发创新,与华为、中兴、联想等竞争对手相比,酷派近两年来高端手机鲜有作为,原来在 CDMA机型积累的高端品牌优势正在逐步丧失。

3、价格战。在国内市场,酷派正在承担起“价格杀手”的角色。如今年上半年酷派联合河南、湖南等地方移动公司推出了售价 199元的3.5 英寸智能手机 8020+,价格比山寨厂商还低。

在国际市场,酷派 2012联合美国运营商MetroPCS推出了 LTE 4G手机“QUATTRO ”,销量超过 100万部。

不过据中兴和华为美国市场相关人员表示, MetroPCS并不是美国主流运营商,用户数不足 1000万,对价格更加敏感。酷派正在与华为与中兴在海外市场开打“价格战”,而这曾是多年之前华为和中兴在拓展国际市场初期的作法,难以长久。

联想手机

联想今年智能手机目标出货约 5500万台。根据IDC 最新公布数据显示,联想在全球手机市场份额达到了第四名,中国市场占有率排名第二。

与中兴、华为、酷派等国产手机厂商相比,联想占据了明显的品牌和渠道优势。联想 PC渠道已经下沉到乡镇级别,惠普、宏碁等品牌已经基本上被逐出了三线以下市场,用户对联想品牌认知度较高,而从 PC到智能手机的品牌迁移度成本也较低。

平心而论,联想从 2009年底重新回购手机业务,在三年多的时间中能冲到国内市场第二已是不易。不过联想手机却给自己定下了“两年超苹果三星”的计划,红口白牙说说容易,要“玩真的”可是会面临极大风险:

1、国内份额增幅有限。中国虽然已成为全球最大的智能手机市场,但市场增幅有限。赛诺数据显示,今年前 6个月,国内智能手机单月出货稳定在 2500万-2700 万台之间,智能手机销售占比已接近 87%。而联想手机单月销量也从 1月的278.5 万台,下降至 4月的213.2 万台,再升至 6月的256.8 万台,增幅已极其有限。

2、手机专利和研发薄弱。联想2002 年就进入手机市场,但历经反复,直到 2009年才通过回购开始再次规模进入手机市场。不过与其中兴、华为等手机品牌相比,联想长于供应链整合和制造加工,仍脱离不了典型“贸工技”企业,在手机研发、移动通信专利储备上比较薄弱。随着联想手机体量的快速增长,更是引发了三星等国际巨头、以及国际专利流氓公司的关注。

3、海外市场风险大。中兴、华为 10年之前就已进入海外市场,酷派也已开始拓展美国市场,而联想手机海外布局非常谨慎,目前也仅开始从印度、东南亚等市场“渗透”,未选择进入欧美等国际一流手机市场。

业内分析人士认为,缺乏核心设计能力、移动通信专利,使联想很难进入欧美等国际市场,通过市场并购成为其国际化的必然选择。不过随着联想与 NEC谈判的破裂,联想必须再次选择新的并购企业,而并购国际企业对于任何一家中国企业来说都是极具风险的行为。

洗牌期挑战与机会并存,酷派风险相比最大

实际上,一家手机厂商年出货量做到 5000万部,体量之大决定了很难迅速衰退。只要产业和经济环境不发生剧烈变化,自身又不出“昏招儿”,活下去并不是困难的事情。

不过从风险角度而言,产品体系单一、海外市场布局较晚的酷派无疑风险最大。

中国是一个特殊的市场,手机竞争环境复杂,价格战频频,运营商对产业链的主导能力快速增强。在向高端手机和知名消费品牌演进的过程中,投入是一个巨大而且持续的过程,如中兴执行副总裁何士友所言,“这是一场没有尽头的马拉松”,每次都能“踏准点儿”,少犯错,才能最终活下来。同时,在 3G向4G 产业升级的过程中,变革又给了每一个企业新的机会,如华为终端董事长余承东所言,手机产业已进入“洗牌期”,剩者为王,从现在到 2015年将是行业的“决胜期”。


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