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最近智能电视机这个领域很热闹,前后有乐视、爱奇艺、小米多家科技公司介入,有一定的理由可以相信,会有更多的公司会考虑或正在考虑介入到这个领域中。不过,有件事很奇怪的是,智能手机的两大操作系统霸主:苹果和谷歌,迟迟没有动静。前者做了一个Apple TV,但不是电视机,只是盒子;后者则联合索尼制造过一台概念性的智能电视机,也就基本不再有什么更新的信息。倒是前一阵子推出了一个电视棒产品,吸引到不少眼球,但依然属于电视机的外设。似乎,在智能电视机领域,中国人走在美国人的前头,当然,它最基本的核心操作系统,依然是谷歌的Android。

盒子也好、电视棒也好,它的理念是把存量的功能电视机(请允许我套用功能手机的称呼)转变成一种可以联网的智能电视。这个做法的好处是转化成本很低,在中国,2-300块钱就可以完成这件事,但它的缺点:1)需要有一个电视机上的接口,而电视机无论是传统的视音频接口还是HDMI都非常有限;2)你依然需要至少两个遥控器,一个管电视的,一个管盒子的。有些盒子还能支持外接键盘鼠标,或者支持手机里的app操控。但无论如何,那个繁琐的电视机遥控器,依然无非抛弃。这在操控上有一定的违和感。

但美国两大巨头,至少从今天的态势看,它们更愿意使用转移存量的方法,毕竟对用户而言,升级成本低。苹果用盒子,谷歌用电视棒。中国人则一步到位,要做增量。比如小米喊出的口号是:做年轻人的第一台电视机。这句口号的背后就是:假设年轻人没有电视机。这是一个典型的做增量市场的行为:让没有电视机的人直接拥有一台互联网电视。

做增量的理念总是比做存量的理念有些小小激进的,因为今天的年轻人,压根就是鼠标键盘一代甚至是触屏一代,而不是早年的遥控器一代。对于今天的年轻人而言,接受电视机仿佛就是在接受一个全新的设备:笨重且很难移动,又没有触屏,也不存在什么陀螺仪,甚至连摄像头都欠奉(这意味着无法通过动作捕捉来完成输入和操控)。如何让他们掏出银子来,接受这样一个事物,只剩下了一个手段:价格。当价格相对足够低的时候(比如比传统的功能电视机便宜很多),也许他们会接受。

这就是智能电视机和智能手机完全不一样的开始,iPhone其实很贵,比大多数功能手机都贵,但它提供了一个完全不同的操控方式:触屏,并随之引来大多数智能手机的效仿。谷歌坚持了一阵子全键盘理念后全面倒向了触屏操控。今天我们使用触屏来操控已经变得司空见惯波澜不惊,但我们依然需要想起这样的历史:当iPhone出来的时候,这个世界是被怎样得惊艳到了。

但智能电视机,老实讲一句,并没有提供一种全新的操控方式,它依然在靠遥控器。小米电视机配备了一个十一键的遥控器,已经做到了尽可能的极简,但依然毫无惊艳可言。它不提供触屏(可以理解,47寸那么大去触屏,对身体也不好),也不提供动作捕捉(对比一下kinect或WII这样的游戏机),当然也不会有声控或重力感应。从这个意义上讲,我个人认为,智能电视机的推进速度,不会比智能手机快。道理就在于:这个设备的操控方式,其实没有什么革命性的变化。在我看来,“重新发明***”最核心的地方,就是要重新发明对“***”的操控方式。但要想让电视机出现操控方式的变革,目前似乎还没有什么太伟大的idea。

另外一家公司,倒是值得注意,这就是今天大多数人不看好的微软。事实上,微软在移动互联网领域的确鲜有建树,但它在客厅领域倒是做得不错。Xbox360及其外设kinect发展得还不错,xbox360目前全球铺货近8000万台。在这个设备的帮助下,它首先让电视机产生了一个真正意义上好玩的功能:游戏(现在智能电视机里也有,但真心说一句,没什么太好玩的游戏),然后加入联网功能,于是我们可以在线游戏。在我看来,这个设备要加入一些视频播放,那是相当简单的事。Xbox360是一个转移存量理念的设备,kinect提供了全新的操控方式:人就是遥控器。故而,在批评微软之余,也的确需要重新审视一下它的客厅战场。在这个战场上,它是有些先发优势的。同样具有一定优势的,是任天堂的WII。目前比较大的障碍是,体感游戏供给不足,但相对于智能电视机而言,供给已经很多了。

中国人基本上没有什么太厉害的游戏主机公司。对小米来说,它的小米盒子开机率很高,据我在小米公司的朋友透露说,每天的开机率是所有正牌盒子中——也就是有牌照的,非山寨——最高的。从这个数据出发,小米认为电视机这个东西是有需求的,人们之所以不开电视机,无非就是因为里面的内容不好。一旦接入网络视频后,小米有信心做好这块市场。

在小米的理念中,手机是家庭的中心,一切设备都有可能成为手机的外延,比如电视机大屏幕就是手机小屏幕的外延。这是一个手机中心论的理念,这个理念我个人倒是觉得可以再观察和讨论。毕竟操控手机和操控电视是不太一样的,用手机中心来协调家中的设备,这一点我是要打个问号的。

再过数十年回头来看,极有可能的是,今天的智能电视机恐怕只是一个功能电视机的1.5版,真正的智能电视机还没有到来。我并不知道有什么全新的操控方式,但我相信的是,功能电视机的操控方式,绝不是真正智能电视机的操控方式。当下的智能电视机,是在借价格低廉和网络视频内容繁多的力,它的自身,尚未看到什么全新的革命性变化。回首数码设备的历史,操控变化(或者说输入方式),才是革命性的标志。

不过,市场总是要有先驱者,正如智能手机领域中,诺基亚就是先驱者。

—————

iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@qq.com。


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