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本文来自微信公共账号“智齿”。作者在本文中提出观点认为央视315晚会对苹果发难,并非与央视本身有利益冲突,而是与库克竭力推进的苹果入华有密切关系。

作者提出的最有争议的观点是:315晚会曝光苹果之后,很可能意味着廉价版iPhone计划夭折,以及最终使苹果其他入华谈判尽快落定。

昨天315晚会曝光苹果售后问题引来一片哗然,加之何润东微博的“大约8点20发”,这又成为一个新的热门短句。

无疑,所有人都知道了央视发难苹果是有意为之。但是这是为什么呢?对苹果而言,“给钱就可以让你不上315”似乎不是问题所在。苹果在华要做全媒体投放的主体都没有,目前的广告都是合作销售机构和运营商为主体的投放——运营商可是电视台的大客户。

所以广告问题不是苹果的问题,那么苹果的问题在哪?

事实上我第一次听说315要搞苹果是在两周前,大约是2月25或者26日,消息源来自微软中国区的销售人士,当时的说法是“可能搞,可能不搞,还不能完全确定”。

我说点我知道的故事,但不保证100%为真或有据可查,这个故事需要追溯到苹果CEO库克在过去一年里两次访华。

第一次来更像是务虚会,除了视察苹果的上下游各供应商之外,最重要的,是会见政府高层。

据称那次库克与最高级别的国家领导人有过会面。双方具体交换了哪些意见无人得知。但之后苹果在华的举动值得玩味。

首先,苹果开始在外媒发布大量与中国市场相关的利好消息,这引起了中文科技博客的兴奋,继而把舆论传递到了更为传统的媒体以及体制内的媒体主管机构中。

然后,苹果准备在上海设立全球研发中心。这事在不久前被电视媒体揭露。一名在研发中心大楼建筑工地的工人说:“我们和苹果有保密协议的,不能告诉你是给谁建的。”

再之后,有用户发现国内通往海外App Store的带宽有所增加——当然之后似乎又有所反复。但总体而言,现在从App Store更新应用比一年前要快一些。而与之相关的是,时不时起一些“谣言”言之凿凿称苹果在中国设立App Store的服务器。

最后,就是库克的第二次访华了。这次的行程要透明的多,所有人都知道库克与工信部部长苗圩见面谈了关于中国移动的问题。而之后与苹果相关的新闻稿也多在强调中国市场对于苹果发展的贡献。

所以结论是什么?

在得知315可能搞苹果之后,我有针对性地收集了小范围的观点,还原出的情节是这样的:

苹果在华活动的需求与中国对于苹果的需求并不是完全匹配的。库克欲达到自己的目的,需要作出一些让步。

库克的目的并不能完全确定,推测有可能是在中国设立一个完全的法人主体,全权运营苹果在中国的研发、制造、销售、售后和市场营销。而目前,苹果在华仍是通过授权分权来运营的。

如果库克想达到这个目的,他被各方面提出了以下几点要求:

  1. 在中国设立结算中心,向中国政府纳税,并直接解决一定数量的就业。
  2. 在中国设立研发中心,向中国输送技术、培养技术人才。
  3. 与中国运营商合作,尤其是支持和推广中国移动的TD系列网络通信制式。
  4. 在中国设立服务器并接受中国监管部门的控制。

据我所知,第一点和第二点库克已经答应并开始着手履行。问题出在第三点和第四点上。

关于iPhone与中国移动的合作,事实上库克是有意促成的。据来自中国移动内部的坊间消息,下一代iphone将支持TD-SCDMA制式和TDD-LTE制式,由中国移动运营此版iphone的销售和网络。

但关于该版本iphone中国移动有额外的需求。主要在三个方面:

  1. 中国移动给予苹果的补贴将少于此前联通运营iphone的补贴额度。中国移动并不希望像联通一样经历大约一年的亏损才开始借iphone重整旗鼓。
  2. 鉴于TD网络用户的规模和属性,中国移动希望苹果能为其定制低于200美元的廉价iphone,以稳定中移动庞大的2G用户。
  3. 苹果在华服务器的技术细节与苹果此前的规则不匹配。这个就不必细说了。

苹果并不是不愿意付出成本来实现以上三点,苹果的忧虑在于,如果此先例一开。苹果自身的产品体系和运营规则会被中国庞大的消费力拖垮。最终苹果将失去原先的,对产业链全局完全控制的优势。

由于苹果入华事件的双方需求和顾虑并不是直接冲突的,所以这件事一直都有谈判的空间。

从1月份到3月份,这项谈判的细节一直无人知晓。但直到2月底有消息显示“可能谈不拢了”,就有了315要搞苹果的传言。

所以两周前的真相很可能是,眼看亮底牌前的最后一次押注,便是谈拢了就不上315,谈不拢就只好拿这个开刀了。

315打击苹果,背后的利益链条过于复杂,和三星等苹果竞争对手并无关系。包括中国移动和整个国家工信产业体系在内,都小小的向苹果示了威。所以无论如何,苹果是躲不过去的。

当然,正如大家所预料,苹果也不会躲。但315的信号传出,至少廉价iPhone一项,苹果是决计不会考虑了——这是对苹果原有产品和品牌体系冲击最大的提议。几百年前资本家就知道往河里倒牛奶而不是降价出售,苹果不会蠢到那个程度。

而剩下的谈判,也许会很快完成。服务器和结算中心的问题苹果其实没什么可谈的。海外科技企业在华的规则,也不允许苹果来开一个特例。

当双方都把底牌打完的时候,还是要握手签约的。而315呢,不过是底牌上面的最后一张牌而已。入华势在必行,只是讨价还价的过程,需要315晚会来划上一个句号。

——————————————————————

关于智齿:微信公共账号智齿,可搜索“zhi_chi”或扫描下方二维码添加。智齿是一个专注于讲故事的账号,以商业故事为主。故事与新闻的区别在于,情节的跌宕与人物的命运有时比真相的理性客观中立更重要些。


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  3. 开完这个博客,感觉是政治谍战片,并且中移动都出来了,不得不佩服撸主的想象力!!!
    你为何不问一个问题“苹果的售后为什么这么怨声载道?”,修一个手机比买一个手机还贵~坑还是不坑???换一个屏一两千?坑还是不吭?
    这才是3.15的核心,维护消费者利益!虽然8:20有点搞笑,但是撸主,你天天看donews也应该懂得营销造势!没有大V的支持,信息如何传播??

  4. 现在网上一大堆人讨伐3.15的声音,我觉得十有八九都是苹果营销枪手。3.15报道的有问题吗?为什么质疑315的声音都能盖过苹果售后问题呢?
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