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引起全社会上下关注的电信运营商向微信收费的问题还在沸沸扬扬地讨论之中。在权力场上,电信运营商似乎占上风,因为工信部表态支持了。舆论场上,腾讯显然得到了多数人的支持,几乎所有言论都在批判电信运营商们。或者说,百姓支持的不是腾讯,而是由于互联网业的发展给亿万人带来的成本低廉,强大高效和便捷可靠的新型通讯服务。

其实,仅限于就事论事地讨论是否应该对微信收费是个永远说不清楚的问题,一定是公说公有理,婆说婆有理,看你站在谁的立场上,维护谁的利益。例如,有人说微信占了中移动60%的信令量却只带来10%的新流量,所以应该收费;但也有人说腾讯为微信研发运行投入巨量资源而迄今收入为零,却在客观上促进了电信运营商们的3G推广和网络升级换代,所以运营商应该给予补贴和奖励。再例如,有人说微信的普及减少了语音通话和短信服务的数量与收入,所以应该收费;但也有人说电信运营商们应该改革自身陈旧的商业模式,统一按网络数据量构建新型收费模型,而不应该对创新者罚款。

从历史上看,当博弈两方分别是国营对民营,垄断对竞争,权力对民意的时候,没有多少道理好讲,胜利永远属于前者。看看价高质次的宽带,价高质次的汽油柴油,质量无保障的奶粉和食品,遍地开花的强拆乱建,固定的存款利率和高升的贷款利率之差,对微信这类威胁垄断既得利益者利益的创新进行打压一点也不令人奇怪。但是,就算电信运营商利用垄断的地位和权力的支撑真的向微信收费,收多少合适呢?十亿八亿不解决任何问题,百亿千亿一定使创新者望而却步,放弃任何创新的努力。没有了层出不穷的创新服务,重金打造3G或4G还有什么意义?

所以,是否对微信收费不仅仅是一个简单孤立的企业利益之争,而是更深层次的博弈和挑战,其实质是面对汹涌而至的产业革命,科技创新和社会进步,一个像电信运营商这样的传统企业是否仍然能够固守陈旧思维方式,以不变应万变,永处不败之地。

网络业的发展正走到一个历史的拐点上,新一代服务平台呼之欲出。以苹果为代表的硬平台,以谷歌为代表的半硬平台和以Facebook为代表的软平台这几年打得不亦乐乎,开始向全面融合的方向发展。以刚刚推出的Facebook Home和即将推出的苹果iSO 7和下一代安卓操作系统来看,软硬结合,无缝连接的新一代服务平台很快就会杀入市场。新平台主要的创新在于将人人都会用到的网络基础服务功能从应用层提升起来,成为平台的标准模块,使其更强大,更完整,更简便,这包括个人数据管理,公共资讯获取,社会交往互动,定位基础上的细分市场服务能力以及支付服务等五大模块。平台不再仅仅局限于底层服务支撑的工作,而是直接与用户使用界面无缝连接,浑然一体。当这样的平台在今后两三年成型并广泛推广后,电信运营商们赖以生存的通信服务就蜕变成新一代平台五大基础服务模块中的一个而已,而且还不是这一模块的全部。微信在一定程度上代表了新一代平台中通信模块的雏形,如果做对了,也有从一个以通讯服务为核心的服务系统升级成为全方位服务平台的潜在机会。

由此推断,未来几年网络业竞争的高端是平台之战,焦点是谁能向用户提供全方位的网络服务,谁能获得和控制用户的网络行为数据,并在此之上创造新一代网络服务商业模式。平台的地位越来越强大,应用的地位越来越弱小,对平台的依附性越来越大,逐渐失去独立生存能力。从互联网的角度看,传统电信运营商们的现有主营语音通话以及短信彩信之类的东西,不过是新一代互联网平台的基本功能之一或者应用之一,没有继续独立生存的必要和可能。

从这次是否对微信收费的讨论看,电信运营商们或者没有看清产业发展大趋势,或者看清了却仍然无法摆脱传统思维,内部利益格局和路径依赖的惯性,仍旧试图通过垄断地位和权力支撑抗拒或延缓产业变革。按照运营商们的逻辑,语音通话仍然是不可改变的主营业务,网络服务只能定位于增值服务,任何企图削弱或取代语音通话服务商业模式的创新都是不可容忍的。

电信运营商们采取对微信收费这样的本能动作有可以理解的一面,毕竟根本性的转型是过程痛苦,代价高昂和结果不确定的。但是,与其采取对微信收费或推出自有山寨版微信这种徒劳无功的方法,不如思考并实行一些更具积极意义和战略价值的布局。例如,电信运营商拥有庞大的网络,海量的用户资源和强大的市场能力,完全有资格以主力军之一的身份参与新一代互联网服务平台的创新与经营。当然,这种参与必须是平等的,共享的,资源交换式的,不可能沿用过去那一套垄断式的,主导式的,行政命令式的做法。再例如,在大数据的浪潮正在兴起的今天,重要的已经不再是某一个服务由谁提供,而在于服务产生的数据由谁享用,因为新一代商业模式将主要基于对大数据的开发而来。电信运营商完全有机会利用自身的资源和能力,通过拥有,共享,购买和交换等方式获得各类网络服务产生的大数据并找到赢利之道。当然,这种战略的前提是电信运营商尽快在实质上而不是口头上转型为互联网信息服务商。机会是有的,但对电信运营商来说,机会窗口的敞开大约只剩两三年的时间了。机不可失,时不再来。


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